The oscillating NHL schedule has stopped on just two games of action, and only one is showing decent value in our model.
Where is it, and what angle should we back?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Colorado Avalanche at Vancouver Canucks
Canucks +1.5 (-172) - 2 Stars
Under 6.5 (+114) - 1 Star
This line is incredibly fishy.
The Avalanche have started to ramp up their level of play this past week. They've covered three straight pucklines with a +13 goal differential. Yet, that puckline is +140 tonight against one of the worst teams in the league. It's suspicious.
If Vancouver does keep pace, it'll be in a lower-scoring contest. Colorado is allowing the 9th-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.88 xGA), and the Canucks have posted the 10th-fewest expected goals per 60 (2.96) themselves. They just have a hard time scoring.
There's reason to believe the Canucks can get lucky -- and should soon. While they're allowing 3.90 goals per 60 minutes, their rate of xGA per 60 minutes is just 3.22. They've been unlucky as a defense, and a large chunk of that can be explained through Spencer Martin.
Martin was outstanding in his rookie campaign last year, posting 11.65 goals saved above expectation (GSAx). This year, that mark is an abysmal -16.86 GSAx. Can he -- or will he -- turn it around soon?
Our model believes so -- at least for tonight. It expects the Canucks to hang within a goal here 69.3% of the time against these 63.2% implied odds. The model also believes there are fewer than seven total goals 48.7% of the time against 46.7% implied odds.