MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Wednesday 9/28/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U ImpliedTotal 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
ATLJosiahGray8.54.9337.2%22.8%12.6%6.4%2.9%
LAAAdrianMartinez8.54.8034.9%20.9%11.3%5.6%2.5%
SFJoseUrena8.54.6933.0%19.4%10.3%5.0%2.2%
BOSDeanKremer9.04.6732.6%19.1%10.1%4.9%2.1%
BALRichHill9.04.3326.8%14.8%7.3%3.3%1.3%
MINJohnnyCueto8.04.0221.8%11.3%5.2%2.2%0.8%
LADJoeMusgrove7.53.9921.3%11.0%5.1%2.1%0.8%
CHWJoshWinder8.03.9821.2%10.9%5.0%2.1%0.8%
NYMJesusLuzardo7.03.9620.9%10.7%4.9%2.0%0.8%
DETDanielLynch7.53.9320.4%10.4%4.7%1.9%0.7%
NYYMitchWhite7.53.8919.8%10.0%4.5%1.8%0.7%
PITLuisCessa7.53.8419.0%9.5%4.2%1.7%0.6%
COLSeanHjelle8.53.8118.6%9.2%4.1%1.6%0.6%
MILJoseQuintana7.03.8018.4%9.1%4.0%1.6%0.6%
OAKMichaelLorenzen8.53.7017.0%8.2%3.5%1.4%0.5%
PHIHaydenWesneski6.53.6916.8%8.1%3.5%1.3%0.5%
CINBryseWilson7.53.6616.4%7.8%3.3%1.3%0.5%
HOUZacGallen6.53.6516.3%7.7%3.3%1.3%0.4%
TORGerritCole7.53.6115.7%7.4%3.1%1.2%0.4%
KCMattManning7.53.5715.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%
WSHJakeOdorizzi8.53.5715.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%
SEAMartinPerez6.53.5615.0%7.0%2.9%1.1%0.4%
SDJulioUrias7.53.5114.4%6.6%2.7%1.0%0.3%
CLETylerGlasnow6.53.3912.8%5.7%2.3%0.8%0.3%
STLBrandonWoodruff7.03.2010.5%4.5%1.7%0.6%0.2%
TBTristonMcKenzie6.53.119.5%3.9%1.4%0.5%0.1%
MIATaijuanWalker7.03.048.8%3.6%1.3%0.4%0.1%
TEXGeorgeKirby6.52.947.8%3.1%1.1%0.3%0.1%
ARIJustinVerlander6.52.857.0%2.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%
CHCAaronNola6.52.816.6%2.5%0.8%0.2%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp KProj 3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
AaronNolaCHC7.493.6%85.8%74.4%60.4%45.6%32.0%20.9%
BrandonWoodruffSTL7.292.7%84.3%72.2%57.7%42.8%29.5%18.8%
GerritColeTOR6.991.5%82.1%69.0%54.0%39.1%26.2%16.2%
JustinVerlanderARI6.286.7%74.2%58.7%42.7%28.5%17.5%9.9%
TristonMcKenzieTB6.286.5%74.0%58.4%42.4%28.3%17.3%9.8%
ZacGallenHOU5.984.1%70.3%54.0%37.9%24.4%14.4%7.8%
JulioUriasSD5.983.7%69.7%53.3%37.3%23.8%14.0%7.5%
JesusLuzardoNYM5.781.8%67.0%50.2%34.2%21.3%12.2%6.4%
HaydenWesneskiPHI5.680.6%65.3%48.3%32.5%19.9%11.2%5.7%
JoeMusgroveLAD5.579.7%64.1%46.9%31.2%18.9%10.5%5.3%
GeorgeKirbyTEX5.478.8%62.8%45.6%30.0%18.0%9.8%4.9%
TylerGlasnowCLE5.174.7%57.5%40.0%25.1%14.3%7.4%3.5%
MartinPerezSEA5.174.5%57.2%39.6%24.8%14.1%7.3%3.4%
JosiahGrayATL4.971.3%53.3%35.8%21.6%11.8%5.9%2.7%
RichHillBAL4.870.4%52.2%34.7%20.8%11.2%5.5%2.5%
TaijuanWalkerMIA4.667.8%49.1%31.8%18.5%9.7%4.6%2.0%
MattManningKC4.667.8%49.1%31.8%18.5%9.7%4.6%2.0%
JohnnyCuetoMIN4.666.6%47.7%30.6%17.5%9.1%4.3%1.8%
DeanKremerBOS4.566.3%47.4%30.2%17.3%8.9%4.2%1.8%
MichaelLorenzenOAK4.463.9%44.7%27.8%15.5%7.8%3.5%1.5%
JoseQuintanaMIL4.463.2%43.9%27.2%15.0%7.5%3.4%1.4%
JakeOdorizziWSH4.363.0%43.7%27.0%14.9%7.4%3.3%1.4%
DanielLynchDET4.361.9%42.6%26.0%14.2%7.0%3.1%1.3%
AdrianMartinezLAA4.259.5%40.0%23.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
SeanHjelleCOL4.056.8%37.3%21.6%11.2%5.2%2.2%0.8%
MitchWhiteNYY4.056.3%36.7%21.2%10.9%5.0%2.1%0.8%
JoseUrenaSF3.852.4%33.0%18.3%9.0%4.0%1.6%0.6%
JoshWinderCHW3.749.7%30.5%16.4%7.8%3.3%1.3%0.5%
BryseWilsonCIN3.546.8%27.8%14.5%6.7%2.8%1.0%0.3%
LuisCessaPIT3.545.5%26.7%13.7%6.2%2.5%0.9%0.3%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team SplitAdv? HRPF OppSP HRProb% xHROdds
RhysHoskinsPHINo103HaydenWesneski28.6%+250
ShoheiOhtaniLAAYes108AdrianMartinez27.9%+260
MattOlsonATLYes104JosiahGray27.3%+265
BryceHarperPHIYes96HaydenWesneski27.2%+270
MikeTroutLAANo103AdrianMartinez26.4%+280
AustinRileyATLNo106JosiahGray26.0%+285
PaulGoldschmidtSTLNo103BrandonWoodruff25.1%+300
RonaldAcunaATLNo106JosiahGray24.2%+310
KyleSchwarberPHIYes96HaydenWesneski23.9%+320
DansbySwansonATLNo106JosiahGray23.8%+320
NolanArenadoSTLNo103BrandonWoodruff23.3%+330
AaronJudgeNYYNo101MitchWhite22.5%+345
JocPedersonSFYes87JoseUrena22.0%+355
J.T.RealmutoPHINo103HaydenWesneski21.8%+360
DavidVillarSFNo90JoseUrena21.7%+360
RafaelDeversBOSYes93DeanKremer21.6%+365
YoanMoncadaCHWYes99JoshWinder21.6%+365
GavinSheetsCHWYes99JoshWinder21.6%+365
PeteAlonsoNYMYes98JesusLuzardo21.6%+365
YordanAlvarezHOUYes102ZacGallen21.5%+365
SethBrownOAKYes108MichaelLorenzen21.3%+370
Travisd'ArnaudATLNo106JosiahGray21.2%+370
GiancarloStantonNYYNo101MitchWhite21.0%+375
VladimirGuerreroJr.TORNo101GerritCole21.0%+375
J.D.MartinezBOSNo99DeanKremer20.7%+385
WillyAdamesMILYes103JoseQuintana20.7%+385
EloyJimenezCHWNo98JoshWinder20.5%+385
ChristianWalkerARINo101JustinVerlander20.5%+390
BryanReynoldsPITYes95LuisCessa20.4%+390
TJFriedlCINYes95BryseWilson20.4%+390
TreaTurnerLADNo96JoeMusgrove20.2%+395
MannyMachadoSDYes96JulioUrias20.2%+395
MichaelHarrisIIATLYes104JosiahGray20.2%+395
MattChapmanTORNo101GerritCole19.9%+400
MJMelendezKCYes94MattManning19.8%+405
TaylorWardLAANo103AdrianMartinez19.7%+410
SeanMurphyOAKNo103MichaelLorenzen19.7%+410
LukeVoitWSHNo106JakeOdorizzi19.5%+415
JoseAltuveHOUNo101ZacGallen19.4%+415
GeorgeSpringerTORNo101GerritCole19.4%+415
MookieBettsLADNo96JoeMusgrove19.2%+420
WillsonContrerasCHCNo103AaronNola19.1%+425
LaneThomasWSHNo106JakeOdorizzi18.9%+430
CarlosSantanaSEAYes99MartinPerez18.9%+430
EricHaaseDETYes99DanielLynch18.9%+430
RyanMountcastleBALYes99RichHill18.9%+430
JoseRamirezCLEYes103TylerGlasnow18.8%+430
EmmanuelRiveraARINo101JustinVerlander18.8%+430
C.J.CronCOLNo90SeanHjelle18.8%+430
AnthonyRizzoNYYYes94MitchWhite18.7%+435
CoreySeagerTEXYes96GeorgeKirby18.4%+445
AnthonySantanderBALYes99RichHill18.3%+445
DannyJansenTORNo101GerritCole18.2%+450
FranciscoLindorNYMYes98JesusLuzardo18.1%+450
KyleTuckerHOUYes102ZacGallen18.1%+450
WillSmithLADNo96JoeMusgrove18.1%+455
StuartFairchildCINNo92BryseWilson18.0%+455
NickMatonPHIYes96HaydenWesneski17.8%+460
CedricMullinsBALYes99RichHill17.7%+465
JoshDonaldsonNYYNo101MitchWhite17.6%+465
TeoscarHernandezTORNo101GerritCole17.6%+465
MikeYastrzemskiSFYes87JoseUrena17.6%+470
DaultonVarshoARIYes102JustinVerlander17.5%+470
AdolisGarciaTEXNo99GeorgeKirby17.4%+475
AlbertPujolsSTLNo103BrandonWoodruff17.3%+480
ElvisAndrusCHWNo98JoshWinder17.2%+480
BoBichetteTORNo101GerritCole17.0%+485
MichaelBrosseauMILYes103JoseQuintana16.9%+490
SalvadorPerezKCNo99MattManning16.8%+495
RandyArozarenaTBNo99TristonMcKenzie16.8%+495
IsaacParedesTBNo99TristonMcKenzie16.8%+495
MaxMuncyLADYes95JoeMusgrove16.5%+505
BobbyWittJr.KCNo99MattManning16.2%+520
GarySanchezMINNo98JohnnyCueto16.0%+525
BrandonDrurySDYes96JulioUrias16.0%+525
JakeFraleyCINYes95BryseWilson15.9%+530
TreyManciniHOUNo101ZacGallen15.8%+535
GleyberTorresNYYNo101MitchWhite15.8%+535
OrlandoArciaATLNo106JosiahGray15.7%+535
EduardoEscobarNYMYes98JesusLuzardo15.6%+540
KestonHiuraMILYes103JoseQuintana15.5%+545
LarsNootbaarSTLYes101BrandonWoodruff15.4%+550
BryanDeLaCruzMIANo98TaijuanWalker15.4%+550
FreddieFreemanLADYes95JoeMusgrove15.3%+555
MarcellOzunaATLNo106JosiahGray15.1%+565
AustinHaysBALYes99RichHill15.0%+565
TyFranceSEAYes99MartinPerez15.0%+565
BrandonCrawfordSFYes87JoseUrena14.8%+575
RyanMcMahonCOLYes87SeanHjelle14.8%+575
LaMonteWadeJrSFYes87JoseUrena14.8%+575
JoseAbreuCHWNo98JoshWinder14.8%+575
FranmilReyesCHCNo103AaronNola14.7%+580
JustinTurnerLADNo96JoeMusgrove14.5%+590
AlexBregmanHOUNo101ZacGallen14.5%+590
JoeyMenesesWSHNo106JakeOdorizzi14.4%+595
WilmerFloresSFNo90JoseUrena14.4%+595
AndresGimenezCLEYes103TylerGlasnow14.3%+600
WanderFrancoTBYes103TristonMcKenzie14.3%+600
JuanSotoSDNo95JulioUrias14.3%+600
KoleCalhounTEXYes96GeorgeKirby14.2%+605
NathanielLoweTEXYes96GeorgeKirby14.2%+605
AndrewVaughnCHWNo98JoshWinder14.1%+610
AndrewMcCutchenMILYes103JoseQuintana14.1%+610
JoeyGalloLADYes95JoeMusgrove14.0%+615
BenGamelPITYes95LuisCessa14.0%+615
CodyBellingerLADYes95JoeMusgrove14.0%+615
JakeCaveMINYes99JohnnyCueto13.8%+620
JeremyPenaHOUNo101ZacGallen13.8%+625
AdleyRutschmanBALYes99RichHill13.6%+635
JonahHeimTEXYes96GeorgeKirby13.5%+640
LuisRengifoLAAYes108AdrianMartinez13.4%+645
OneilCruzPITYes95LuisCessa13.4%+650
HunterRenfroeMILYes103JoseQuintana13.4%+650
CarlosCorreaMINNo98JohnnyCueto12.8%+680
CorbinCarrollARIYes102JustinVerlander12.8%+685
JarredKelenicSEANo96MartinPerez12.7%+685
SheaLangeliersOAKNo103MichaelLorenzen12.6%+690
CharlieBlackmonCOLYes87SeanHjelle12.4%+705
OscarGonzalezCLENo99TylerGlasnow12.2%+720
JoshJungTEXNo99GeorgeKirby12.2%+720
RileyAdamsWSHNo106JakeOdorizzi12.2%+720
VinniePasquantinoKCYes94MattManning11.9%+740
StephenVogtOAKYes108MichaelLorenzen11.9%+745
ConnerCapelOAKYes108MichaelLorenzen11.9%+745
AlexVerdugoBOSYes93DeanKremer11.8%+745
EnriqueHernandezBOSNo99DeanKremer11.5%+770
JoseSiriTBNo99TristonMcKenzie11.5%+770
DylanMooreSEAYes99MartinPerez11.4%+775
MarkCanhaNYMYes98JesusLuzardo11.3%+785
CalMitchellPITYes95LuisCessa11.3%+785
RandalGrichukCOLNo90SeanHjelle11.2%+790
AustinSlaterSFNo90JoseUrena11.2%+790
JasonVoslerSFYes87JoseUrena11.1%+800
Ha-SeongKimSDYes96JulioUrias11.1%+800
LuisUriasMILYes103JoseQuintana11.0%+805
TyroneTaylorMILYes103JoseQuintana11.0%+805
CarsonKellyARINo101JustinVerlander11.0%+810
YuChangBOSNo99DeanKremer10.8%+830
IldemaroVargasWSHYes104JakeOdorizzi10.7%+835
MitchHanigerSEAYes99MartinPerez10.7%+840
DavidPeraltaTBYes103TristonMcKenzie10.6%+840
OswaldoCabreraNYYYes94MitchWhite10.5%+850
DylanCarlsonSTLYes101BrandonWoodruff10.4%+860
TristonCasasBOSYes93DeanKremer10.4%+860
SeiyaSuzukiCHCNo103AaronNola10.4%+860
JuricksonProfarSDYes96JulioUrias10.4%+865
SpencerSteerCINNo92BryseWilson10.1%+890
GunnarHendersonBALNo93RichHill10.1%+895
MarcusSemienTEXNo99GeorgeKirby10.0%+895
MylesStrawCLENo99TylerGlasnow10.0%+895
IanHappCHCYes96AaronNola10.0%+900
BrandonMarshPHIYes96HaydenWesneski10.0%+900
A.J.PollockCHWNo98JoshWinder10.0%+905
NickFortesMIANo98TaijuanWalker10.0%+905
LewinDiazMIAYes95TaijuanWalker9.9%+910
RobinsonChirinosBALYes99RichHill9.9%+915
AbrahamToroSEAYes99MartinPerez9.9%+915
DrewWatersKCYes94MattManning9.8%+920
BrendanDonovanSTLYes101BrandonWoodruff9.7%+935
ChristopherMorelCHCNo103AaronNola9.6%+940
JordanDiazOAKNo103MichaelLorenzen9.6%+940
WilMyersSDYes96JulioUrias9.6%+940
NickGordonMINYes99JohnnyCueto9.5%+955
AlejandroKirkTORNo101GerritCole9.5%+955
BrysonStottPHIYes96HaydenWesneski9.2%+985
EliasDiazCOLNo90SeanHjelle9.2%+985
GioUrshelaMINNo98JohnnyCueto9.2%+985
MikeTogliaCOLYes87SeanHjelle9.1%+995
JorgeMateoBALYes99RichHill9.1%+1005
StevenKwanCLEYes103TylerGlasnow9.0%+1010
JoshBellSDYes96JulioUrias8.8%+1035
JorgeAlfaroSDYes96JulioUrias8.8%+1035
MartinMaldonadoHOUNo101ZacGallen8.7%+1050
ChasMcCormickHOUNo101ZacGallen8.7%+1050
MickeyMoniakLAAYes108AdrianMartinez8.6%+1065
LivanSotoLAAYes108AdrianMartinez8.6%+1065
XanderBogaertsBOSNo99DeanKremer8.5%+1070
HaroldRamirezTBNo99TristonMcKenzie8.5%+1070
JJBledayMIAYes95TaijuanWalker8.4%+1090
RileyGreeneDETNo94DanielLynch8.3%+1100
CavanBiggioTORYes94GerritCole8.3%+1105
CurtCasaliSEAYes99MartinPerez8.2%+1115
JavierBaezDETYes99DanielLynch8.2%+1115
WilliCastroDETYes99DanielLynch8.2%+1115
SpencerTorkelsonDETYes99DanielLynch8.2%+1115
FranciscoMejiaTBYes103TristonMcKenzie8.2%+1120
AlekThomasARIYes102JustinVerlander8.1%+1130
YasmaniGrandalCHWYes99JoshWinder7.9%+1165
JoseTrevinoNYYNo101MitchWhite7.9%+1165
BrandonNimmoNYMNo95JesusLuzardo7.8%+1190
ManuelMargotTBNo99TristonMcKenzie7.7%+1190
AmedRosarioCLENo99TylerGlasnow7.7%+1190
BubbaThompsonTEXNo99GeorgeKirby7.7%+1190
MikeFordLAAYes108AdrianMartinez7.7%+1200
BrianAndersonMIANo98TaijuanWalker7.7%+1205
JoseMirandaMINNo98JohnnyCueto7.7%+1205
JerarEncarnacionMIANo98TaijuanWalker7.7%+1205
VictorCaratiniMILYes103JoseQuintana7.7%+1205
RougnedOdorBALNo93RichHill7.6%+1215