Could this season's juggernaut be in danger to lose in the second round? A wild, unexpected road comeback by the Blues has them at home for a pivotal Game 6 facing elimination.
Will they force a Game 7, or does Colorado close this series out on the road?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Colorado Avalanche at St. Louis Blues
Blues Moneyline (+155) - 3 Stars
Blues +1.5 (-162) - 4 Stars
Under 6.5 (+104) - 2 Stars
After Nathan MacKinnon went coast-to-coast late in the third period, I am shocked to be writing this betting guide currently.
The Blues rallied back to win 5-4 in overtime, and our model might say regression just struck the Avs at the absolute worst time.
Colorado's been largely overvalued all season in betting markets. Their star-studded offense appeases the public, but they had just the ninth-best expected goals-for rate (52.6%) in hockey. Yet, they're often priced in markets as a top-three squad like their record.
On top of that, they've faced the two lowest-rated squads in terms of expected goals-for percentage that made the playoffs. St. Louis was 19th in the regular season, and Nashville was 20th.
Our model expects the regression to continue on Friday. It actually gives St. Louis a 53.2% chance to win this game outright at home, which is a supreme value compared to the 39.2% implied odds on the Blues' moneyline.
It also expects St. Louis to cover a one-goal spread here an overwhelming 76.5% of the time. The 63.8% implied odds on FanDuel Sportsbook aren't high enough there, either.
I lean towards the under in this contest because I'm expecting the Ville Husso who had the seventh-best goals saved above expectation (+14.2) mark in the NHL this year to show up at some point. He's posted the single worst mark of any goalie in the playoffs in that same category (-5.1).
numberFire's model likes the under in this one, too. They're expecting a total south of seven goals 58.4% of the time versus the 49.0% implied odds available from oddsmakers.