Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | ImpliedTotal | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
| ATL | CoryAbbott | 9.0 | 5.41 | 45.6% | 30.0% | 18.0% | 9.8% | 4.9% |
| BOS | JordanLyles | 9.5 | 4.93 | 37.2% | 22.8% | 12.6% | 6.4% | 2.9% |
| BAL | ConnorSeabold | 9.5 | 4.57 | 30.9% | 17.8% | 9.2% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| PIT | ChaseAnderson | 8.0 | 4.33 | 26.8% | 14.8% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| TOR | LuisSeverino | 7.5 | 3.82 | 18.7% | 9.3% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| NYY | KevinGausman | 7.5 | 3.68 | 16.7% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| CIN | RoansyContreras | 8.0 | 3.67 | 16.6% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| WSH | BryceElder | 9.0 | 3.59 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | KProj | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
| KevinGausman | NYY | 7.0 | 91.7% | 82.4% | 69.5% | 54.6% | 39.7% | 26.7% | 16.6% |
| LuisSeverino | TOR | 5.5 | 80.2% | 64.7% | 47.6% | 31.9% | 19.4% | 10.8% | 5.5% |
| BryceElder | WSH | 4.7 | 68.6% | 50.0% | 32.6% | 19.1% | 10.1% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| JordanLyles | BOS | 4.5 | 65.3% | 46.2% | 29.2% | 16.5% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| RoansyContreras | CIN | 4.4 | 63.4% | 44.1% | 27.3% | 15.1% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| ConnorSeabold | BAL | 4.1 | 57.8% | 38.3% | 22.4% | 11.7% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| CoryAbbott | ATL | 3.6 | 47.6% | 28.6% | 15.0% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| ChaseAnderson | PIT | 3.2 | 40.2% | 22.3% | 10.8% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.
Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.
| Batter | Team | SplitAdv? | HRPF | OppSP | HRProb% | xHROdds |
| AustinRiley | ATL | No | 106 | CoryAbbott | 28.7% | +250 |
| MattOlson | ATL | Yes | 104 | CoryAbbott | 27.7% | +260 |
| AaronJudge | NYY | No | 101 | KevinGausman | 25.3% | +295 |
| DansbySwanson | ATL | No | 106 | CoryAbbott | 24.7% | +305 |
| Travisd'Arnaud | ATL | No | 106 | CoryAbbott | 24.2% | +310 |
| BryanReynolds | PIT | Yes | 95 | ChaseAnderson | 23.8% | +320 |
| WilliamContreras | ATL | No | 106 | CoryAbbott | 23.3% | +330 |
| VladimirGuerreroJr. | TOR | No | 101 | LuisSeverino | 21.5% | +365 |
| BoBichette | TOR | No | 101 | LuisSeverino | 21.5% | +365 |
| MichaelHarrisII | ATL | Yes | 104 | CoryAbbott | 21.3% | +370 |
| TeoscarHernandez | TOR | No | 101 | LuisSeverino | 20.5% | +390 |
| MattChapman | TOR | No | 101 | LuisSeverino | 20.5% | +390 |
| JackSuwinski | PIT | Yes | 95 | ChaseAnderson | 20.4% | +390 |
| AnthonySantander | BAL | Yes | 93 | ConnorSeabold | 19.1% | +425 |
| AdleyRutschman | BAL | Yes | 93 | ConnorSeabold | 19.1% | +425 |
| JoeyMeneses | WSH | No | 106 | BryceElder | 18.9% | +430 |
| OneilCruz | PIT | Yes | 95 | ChaseAnderson | 18.8% | +430 |
| RafaelDevers | BOS | Yes | 93 | JordanLyles | 18.5% | +440 |
| GiancarloStanton | NYY | No | 101 | KevinGausman | 17.6% | +465 |
| DannyJansen | TOR | No | 101 | LuisSeverino | 17.6% | +465 |
| JonathanIndia | CIN | No | 92 | RoansyContreras | 17.5% | +470 |
| RyanMountcastle | BAL | No | 99 | ConnorSeabold | 16.8% | +495 |
| LaneThomas | WSH | No | 106 | BryceElder | 16.4% | +510 |
| AristidesAquino | CIN | No | 92 | RoansyContreras | 16.4% | +510 |
| CedricMullins | BAL | Yes | 93 | ConnorSeabold | 16.3% | +515 |
| J.D.Martinez | BOS | No | 99 | JordanLyles | 16.2% | +520 |
| GeorgeSpringer | TOR | No | 101 | LuisSeverino | 15.8% | +535 |
| RodolfoCastro | PIT | Yes | 95 | ChaseAnderson | 15.3% | +555 |
| JoshDonaldson | NYY | No | 101 | KevinGausman | 15.1% | +560 |
| LukeVoit | WSH | No | 106 | BryceElder | 15.1% | +565 |
| TJFriedl | CIN | Yes | 95 | RoansyContreras | 14.0% | +615 |
| GleyberTorres | NYY | No | 101 | KevinGausman | 12.4% | +705 |
| EnriqueHernandez | BOS | No | 99 | JordanLyles | 12.2% | +720 |
| JorgeMateo | BAL | No | 99 | ConnorSeabold | 12.2% | +720 |
| JakeFraley | CIN | Yes | 95 | RoansyContreras | 12.0% | +730 |
| AnthonyRizzo | NYY | Yes | 94 | KevinGausman | 11.9% | +740 |
| OswaldoCabrera | NYY | Yes | 94 | KevinGausman | 11.9% | +740 |
| RougnedOdor | BAL | Yes | 93 | ConnorSeabold | 11.8% | +745 |
| JoseTrevino | NYY | No | 101 | KevinGausman | 11.7% | +755 |
| TommyPham | BOS | No | 99 | JordanLyles | 10.8% | +830 |
| MarcellOzuna | ATL | No | 106 | CoryAbbott | 10.7% | +835 |
| RileyAdams | WSH | No | 106 | BryceElder | 10.7% | +835 |
| VaughnGrissom | ATL | No | 106 | CoryAbbott | 10.7% | +835 |
| ZackCollins | PIT | Yes | 95 | ChaseAnderson | 10.6% | +840 |
| CalMitchell | PIT | Yes | 95 | ChaseAnderson | 10.6% | +840 |
| GunnarHenderson | BAL | Yes | 93 | ConnorSeabold | 10.4% | +860 |
| XanderBogaerts | BOS | No | 99 | JordanLyles | 10.0% | +895 |
| AustinHays | BAL | No | 99 | ConnorSeabold | 10.0% | +895 |
| AlexVerdugo | BOS | Yes | 93 | JordanLyles | 9.7% | +930 |
| WhitMerrifield | TOR | No | 101 | LuisSeverino | 9.5% | +955 |
| EddieRosario | ATL | Yes | 104 | CoryAbbott | 9.1% | +1000 |
| ReeseMcGuire | BOS | Yes | 93 | JordanLyles | 9.0% | +1015 |
| SpencerSteer | CIN | No | 92 | RoansyContreras | 8.7% | +1050 |
| AlejandroKirk | TOR | No | 101 | LuisSeverino | 8.7% | +1050 |
| YuChang | BOS | No | 99 | JordanLyles | 8.5% | +1070 |
| TristonCasas | BOS | Yes | 93 | JordanLyles | 7.5% | +1240 |
| TerrinVavra | BAL | Yes | 93 | ConnorSeabold | 6.7% | +1390 |
| IldemaroVargas | WSH | Yes | 104 | BryceElder | 6.6% | +1420 |
| LuisGarcia | WSH | No | 106 | BryceElder | 6.5% | +1430 |
| KyleFarmer | CIN | No | 92 | RoansyContreras | 6.5% | +1440 |