MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 9/29/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U ImpliedTotal 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
BOSMikeBaumann9.04.8635.9%21.8%11.9%5.9%2.7%
PHIJavierAssad7.54.2926.2%14.3%7.0%3.1%1.3%
LAAColeIrvin7.04.2124.8%13.4%6.5%2.8%1.1%
MILBraxtonGarrett7.54.1924.5%13.1%6.3%2.8%1.1%
SFRyanFeltner7.04.1523.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
BALNathanEovaldi9.04.1423.7%12.6%6.0%2.6%1.0%
DETJonHeasley7.53.9120.1%10.2%4.6%1.9%0.7%
CHWLouieVarland7.53.8619.3%9.7%4.3%1.7%0.6%
MINLucasGiolito7.53.6416.1%7.7%3.3%1.2%0.4%
SEAJonGray7.03.6015.6%7.3%3.1%1.2%0.4%
KCEduardoRodriguez7.53.5915.5%7.2%3.0%1.1%0.4%
TEXMarcoGonzales7.03.4012.9%5.8%2.3%0.8%0.3%
MIAEricLauer7.53.3111.8%5.2%2.0%0.7%0.2%
TBCalQuantrill6.53.3011.7%5.1%2.0%0.7%0.2%
CHCRangerSuarez7.53.2110.7%4.5%1.7%0.6%0.2%
CLEJeffreySprings6.53.2010.5%4.5%1.7%0.6%0.2%
COLCarlosRodon7.02.857.0%2.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%
OAKShoheiOhtani7.02.796.4%2.4%0.8%0.2%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp KProj 3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
ShoheiOhtaniOAK8.095.8%90.0%80.9%68.7%54.7%40.7%28.3%
CarlosRodonCOL7.794.9%88.3%78.1%65.0%50.6%36.7%24.8%
LucasGiolitoMIN6.084.4%70.8%54.6%38.6%24.9%14.8%8.1%
EricLauerMIA5.882.5%68.0%51.3%35.4%22.2%12.8%6.8%
JeffreySpringsCLE5.680.7%65.5%48.5%32.7%20.0%11.3%5.8%
JonGraySEA5.478.2%62.0%44.7%29.2%17.4%9.4%4.7%
AndrewHeaneySD5.376.8%60.2%42.8%27.5%16.1%8.6%4.2%
SeanManaeaLAD5.073.9%56.5%38.9%24.2%13.7%7.0%3.3%
BraxtonGarrettMIL4.871.2%53.1%35.6%21.5%11.7%5.8%2.6%
EduardoRodriguezKC4.870.4%52.2%34.7%20.8%11.2%5.5%2.5%
LouieVarlandCHW4.769.5%51.1%33.7%19.9%10.7%5.2%2.3%
RangerSuarezCHC4.769.3%50.9%33.5%19.8%10.6%5.1%2.3%
NathanEovaldiBAL4.768.7%50.2%32.8%19.3%10.2%4.9%2.2%
CalQuantrillTB4.565.3%46.2%29.2%16.5%8.4%3.9%1.6%
ColeIrvinLAA4.463.5%44.3%27.5%15.3%7.6%3.5%1.4%
MarcoGonzalesTEX4.157.6%38.1%22.3%11.6%5.4%2.3%0.9%
JavierAssadPHI3.749.5%30.3%16.3%7.7%3.3%1.3%0.4%
RyanFeltnerSF3.545.7%26.9%13.8%6.3%2.6%0.9%0.3%
JonHeasleyDET3.341.7%23.6%11.6%5.0%1.9%0.7%0.2%
MikeBaumannBOS3.034.6%18.0%8.1%3.2%1.1%0.4%0.1%
BrusdarGraterolSD1.56.4%1.8%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team SplitAdv? HRPF OppSP HRProb% xHROdds
RhysHoskinsPHINo103JavierAssad29.6%+240
JocPedersonSFYes87RyanFeltner26.7%+275
GavinSheetsCHWYes99LouieVarland24.4%+310
BryceHarperPHIYes96JavierAssad24.4%+310
KyleSchwarberPHIYes96JavierAssad24.4%+310
MookieBettsLADYes96SeanManaea24.2%+315
AnthonySantanderBALYes93NathanEovaldi23.9%+320
RafaelDeversBOSYes93MikeBaumann23.4%+325
ShoheiOhtaniLAANo108ColeIrvin23.0%+335
MikeTroutLAAYes103ColeIrvin22.3%+350
BrandonDrurySDYes96AndrewHeaney21.2%+370
J.D.MartinezBOSNo99MikeBaumann21.2%+370
TreaTurnerLADYes96SeanManaea20.7%+385
TaylorWardLAAYes103ColeIrvin20.7%+385
AndrewMcCutchenMILYes103BraxtonGarrett20.1%+400
JoseRamirezCLEYes99JeffreySprings19.5%+415
PatrickWisdomCHCYes103RangerSuarez19.5%+415
DavidVillarSFNo90RyanFeltner19.3%+420
WillSmithLADYes96SeanManaea19.0%+425
C.J.CronCOLYes90CarlosRodon18.7%+435
CalRaleighSEAYes96JonGray18.4%+445
JoshJungTEXYes99MarcoGonzales18.3%+445
RyanMountcastleBALNo99NathanEovaldi18.0%+455
SeanMurphyOAKNo103ShoheiOhtani17.9%+460
ElvisAndrusCHWNo98LouieVarland17.8%+460
KestonHiuraMILYes103BraxtonGarrett17.6%+470
MichaelBrosseauMILYes103BraxtonGarrett17.6%+470
BryanDeLaCruzMIAYes103EricLauer17.6%+470
AdleyRutschmanBALYes93NathanEovaldi17.4%+475
MaxMuncyLADNo95SeanManaea17.3%+475
JuanSotoSDNo95AndrewHeaney17.3%+475
LaMonteWadeJrSFYes87RyanFeltner17.1%+485
SalvadorPerezKCYes99EduardoRodriguez17.0%+485
AdolisGarciaTEXYes99MarcoGonzales17.0%+485
RandyArozarenaTBNo99CalQuantrill16.8%+495
DermisGarciaOAKNo103ShoheiOhtani16.7%+500
AndrewVaughnCHWNo98LouieVarland16.6%+500
MarcusSemienTEXYes99MarcoGonzales16.4%+510
WillyAdamesMILYes103BraxtonGarrett16.2%+515
EugenioSuarezSEANo99JonGray16.2%+520
J.T.RealmutoPHINo103JavierAssad16.0%+525
CoreySeagerTEXNo96MarcoGonzales16.0%+525
BobbyWittJr.KCYes99EduardoRodriguez15.7%+535
GarrettCooperMIAYes103EricLauer15.5%+545
LuisRengifoLAAYes103ColeIrvin15.5%+545
ChristopherMorelCHCYes103RangerSuarez15.5%+545
CharlesLeblancMIAYes103EricLauer15.5%+545
NickMatonPHIYes96JavierAssad15.4%+550
GioUrshelaMINNo98LucasGiolito15.4%+550
JustinTurnerLADYes96SeanManaea15.3%+550
MannyMachadoSDYes96AndrewHeaney15.3%+550
TrayceThompsonLADYes96SeanManaea15.3%+550
ChristianBethancourtTBNo99CalQuantrill14.9%+570
ConnerCapelOAKYes108ShoheiOhtani14.9%+570
HunterRenfroeMILYes103BraxtonGarrett14.8%+575
JoAdellLAAYes103ColeIrvin14.8%+575
SeiyaSuzukiCHCYes103RangerSuarez14.8%+575
MikeYastrzemskiSFYes87RyanFeltner14.8%+575
NathanielLoweTEXNo96MarcoGonzales14.4%+595
JoeyBartSFNo90RyanFeltner14.4%+595
HunterDozierKCYes99EduardoRodriguez14.4%+595
JonahHeimTEXYes99MarcoGonzales14.4%+595
JoseAbreuCHWNo98LouieVarland14.1%+610
VictorCaratiniMILYes103BraxtonGarrett14.1%+610
TyroneTaylorMILYes103BraxtonGarrett14.1%+610
CedricMullinsBALYes93NathanEovaldi13.8%+625
JasonVoslerSFYes87RyanFeltner13.6%+635
SethBrownOAKYes108ShoheiOhtani13.4%+645
NickFortesMIAYes103EricLauer13.4%+650
AlanTrejoCOLYes90CarlosRodon13.3%+655
WilmerFloresSFNo90RyanFeltner13.1%+660
ThairoEstradaSFNo90RyanFeltner13.1%+660
GunnarHendersonBALYes93NathanEovaldi13.1%+660
GarySanchezMINNo98LucasGiolito12.8%+680
LuisUriasMILYes103BraxtonGarrett12.6%+695
JuricksonProfarSDYes96AndrewHeaney12.6%+695
ChrisTaylorLADYes96SeanManaea12.6%+695
ElehurisMonteroCOLYes90CarlosRodon12.6%+695
RougnedOdorBALYes93NathanEovaldi12.5%+700
CarlosSantanaSEAYes96JonGray12.1%+725
JarredKelenicSEAYes96JonGray12.1%+725
JoshHarrisonCHWNo98LouieVarland12.1%+725
A.J.PollockCHWNo98LouieVarland12.1%+725
CarlosCorreaMINNo98LucasGiolito12.1%+725
MJMelendezKCNo94EduardoRodriguez11.9%+740
JorgeAlfaroSDYes96AndrewHeaney11.9%+745
BrianAndersonMIAYes103EricLauer11.8%+745
JavierBaezDETNo99JonHeasley11.5%+770
MitchHanigerSEANo99JonGray11.5%+770
OscarGonzalezCLEYes99JeffreySprings11.4%+775
VinniePasquantinoKCNo94EduardoRodriguez11.4%+780
RandalGrichukCOLYes90CarlosRodon11.2%+790
JoshBellSDYes96AndrewHeaney11.1%+800
Ha-SeongKimSDYes96AndrewHeaney11.1%+800
WillsonContrerasCHCYes103RangerSuarez11.0%+805
FranmilReyesCHCYes103RangerSuarez11.0%+805
MattWallnerMINYes99LucasGiolito11.0%+810
AustinHaysBALNo99NathanEovaldi10.8%+830
TyFranceSEANo99JonGray10.8%+830
JoseMirandaMINNo98LucasGiolito10.7%+835
DavidPeraltaTBYes103CalQuantrill10.6%+840
HaroldCastroDETYes94JonHeasley10.5%+850
RileyGreeneDETYes94JonHeasley10.5%+850
BrandonCrawfordSFYes87RyanFeltner10.5%+855
TristonCasasBOSYes93MikeBaumann10.4%+860
FreddieFreemanLADNo95SeanManaea10.3%+875
LivanSotoLAANo108ColeIrvin10.1%+885
JoseSiriTBNo99CalQuantrill10.0%+895
WilliCastroDETYes94JonHeasley9.8%+920
EliasDiazCOLYes90CarlosRodon9.8%+920
WilMyersSDYes96AndrewHeaney9.6%+940
YasmaniGrandalCHWYes99LouieVarland9.5%+955
JonathanSchoopDETNo99JonHeasley9.3%+975
ChristianArroyoBOSNo99MikeBaumann9.3%+975
MichaelTaylorKCYes99EduardoRodriguez9.1%+1005
WanderFrancoTBYes103CalQuantrill9.0%+1010
AlecBohmPHINo103JavierAssad8.8%+1030
SheaLangeliersOAKNo103ShoheiOhtani8.8%+1030
JonBertiMIAYes103EricLauer8.5%+1070
JorgeMateoBALNo99NathanEovaldi8.5%+1070
BrandonMarshPHIYes96JavierAssad8.5%+1080
TuckerBarnhartDETYes94JonHeasley8.3%+1105
JeimerCandelarioDETYes94JonHeasley8.3%+1105
JakeCaveMINYes99LucasGiolito7.9%+1165
XanderBogaertsBOSNo99MikeBaumann7.7%+1190
EnriqueHernandezBOSNo99MikeBaumann7.7%+1190
TommyPhamBOSNo99MikeBaumann7.7%+1190
VimaelMachinOAKYes108ShoheiOhtani7.7%+1200
AlexVerdugoBOSYes93MikeBaumann7.5%+1240
AmedRosarioCLEYes99JeffreySprings7.4%+1255
LeodyTaverasTEXYes99MarcoGonzales7.4%+1255
BubbaThompsonTEXYes99MarcoGonzales7.4%+1255
JoseAzocarSDYes96AndrewHeaney7.2%+1290
ChristianYelichMILNo101BraxtonGarrett6.8%+1365
TonyKempOAKYes108ShoheiOhtani6.8%+1370
AkilBaddooDETYes94JonHeasley6.8%+1375