numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Texas Moneyline (-126): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
There is a sliver of value on the Texas Rangers tonight, according to our numbers.
Texas is sending Jon Gray to the mound. Prior to getting injured, Gray was having the best season of his career in his first campaign out of Coors. He's got a 3.39 SIERA and 27.4% strikeout rate this year, both of which are career-best marks.
He's been respectable since coming off the IL, but he's gone only 45 and 67 pitches in his two starts back as the out-of-contention Rangers play it safe. That means we'll see plenty of the Rangers' bullpen, but that's not necessarily a bad thing as Texas' relievers sit 11th in xFIP (3.86) in the second half.
Rookie Cody Morris is going for the Cleveland Guardians. Morris has displayed swing-and-miss stuff in his first 15 2/3 MLB frames, registering a juicy 14.4% swinging-strike rate. But he's also got a 13.2% walk rate and is allowing 1.72 homers per nine.
The Rangers' -126 moneyline price implies win odds of 55.7%. Our model sees Texas winning this game 58.0% of the time. That's enough for this to be a one-star bet (i.e. -- a one-unit recommendation).
Over 7.0 (-120): 5-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model is super into the over for this one, giving it a five-star rating.
E-Rod missed a huge chunk of the year, and he's stunk since coming back. His SIERA sits at 4.59 for the season, and his swinging-strike rate is a hideous 6.6%. Over his previous four outings, he's been blasted for 15 earned runs in 22 1/3 innings, and he should be in trouble against a Chicago White Sox lineup that packs some right-handed pop.
Giolito hasn't been terrible, but he's taken a step back after three consecutive excellent seasons. His second-half strikeout rate is just 22.5%. Right-handed hitters have been a huge issue; he's giving up a .409 wOBA in the split this season. That doesn't bode well for him against the Detroit Tigers. While Detroit's offense isn't good, it's a lineup that is typically righty-heavy.
We project Chicago to win by a score of 5.35-4.40. That's 9.75 total runs -- well over the listed 7.0-run total. We give the over a 68.2% chance to cash, and it's our best bet of the day.