Game 4 of the Easter Conference Finals is tonight, bringing plenty of pressure and a chance to move closer to the Stanley Cup Finals. What is the best way to approach tonight's game?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Header links are to numberFire's betting model for each game. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Hurricanes ML (-105)
It's Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals, and it's do-or-die time for the Carolina Hurricanes.
The Hurricanes have allowed a total of six goals through three games, yet are down 0-3 in the series to the Florida Panthers. While the Panthers have come away with all three wins, this isn't the say the Hurricanes have been "bad." In fact, there's a lot to suggest they've been good but have been a bit unlucky.
Through the first three games of this series, the Canes have 14.57 Expected Goals Scored in all situations but have scored only 3 actual goals. The Panthers have 10.16 Expected Goals Scored in all situations and have 6 actual goals. The Hurricanes have also continued to control the number of shot attempts with 281 in all situations, compared to the Panthers at 218.
The Canes have actually done a lot of the little things correctly but just haven't found the back of the net. This is due to Panthers' goalie, Sergei Bobrovsky, who comes in with 1.399 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) per 60 minutes throughout the playoffs. He has truly been elite but is performing at a much higher rate compared to his regular season, which was a 0.131 GSAx per 60 minutes.
Bobrovsky is due for some regression, and the Canes are going to find the back of the net. The Hurricanes moneyline (-105) is the way I'm looking tonight.