Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals is tonight, bringing plenty of pressure and a chance to move closer to the Stanley Cup Finals. What is the best way to approach tonight's game?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Header links are to numberFire's betting model for each game. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars
Under 5.5 Goals (-110)
The Dallas Stars are down 0-2 against the Vegas Golden Knights and will look to even up the series back on home ice.
As the old adage goes, a series doesn't start until the home team loses a game. That's where we are for this series as things shift to Dallas for Games 3 and 4, so there's hope for the Stars.
Despite all of that, the spot to look at tonight is under 5.5 goals (-110).
Vegas has scored 48 goals through 13 games in these playoffs, despite having just 40.33 Expected Goals scored. That scoring differential is far too high, and the rate is simply unsustainable for long stretches.
On the other side, it's the opposite story when it comes to the Stars' defense. They've allowed 47 goals through 15 games while having 40.11 Expected Goals allowed.
We have a matchup of two opposing factors that should both be falling back down to earth. The Golden Knights are overproducing on offense and will see their scoring slow down. The Stars are underproducing on defense and will see a few more bounces go their way and find pucks miss the net.
All of this should lead to a lack of scoring and a lack of goals, making under 5.5 the play tonight.