Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place live in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 Made Threes (-152)
The Miami Heat are a good matchup for the Denver Nuggets' three-point shooters because the Heat give up a bunch of three-point attempts.
In the playoffs, Miami is permitting a three-point attempt rate of 45.0%, tied for the second-highest among postseason squads. That's a continuation of how the Heat have played defense all year long as Miami gave up the league's second-highest three-point attempt rate in the regular season (43.0%).
While Denver isn't likely to take as many three-balls as the Boston Celtics did against Miami last round, they should put up more shots from deep than they usually do, and that has me on the over on Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's made threes prop.
KCP is an excellent shooter who is hitting 41.1% of his threes in the playoffs after making 42.3% from beyond the arc in the regular season. He's also been letting it fly of late, averaging 6.8 three-point attempts per night in the four-game series against the Los Angeles Lakers, a series in which he hit multiple triples in all four games. He's drilled at least two threes in 7 of his past 10 games.
Minutes shouldn't be an issue, either, as KCP has played at least 34 minutes in seven of his past nine outings.
Our model has Caldwell-Pope going 2.2 of 5.4 from three in Game 1. The -152 juice isn't fun, but the over is the side I'll be on.
Max Strus Over 13.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115)
The Celtics were a tough matchup for Max Strus. Not only was it difficult for him on the defensive end, Boston was really stout against two-guards this season. It resulted in Strus seeing fewer minutes in some games, with him failing to top 26 minutes in three of seven contests.
He should find things a little easier against Denver.
Pope -- Strus' likey primary defensive assignment -- isn't as much of a blow-by threat, which could ease some of the concerns Miami may have with Strus on the defensive end, and Denver was right around the league average in terms of points, rebounds and assists given up to shooting guards over the final 30 games of the regular season.
Even in a tougher spot against Boston, Strus averaged 13.2 combined points, rebounds and assists (PRA) for the series, which is right below this line. He went over 13.5 total PRA in four of the seven games.
We have Strus projected for 9.3 points, 3.3 boards and 1.7 dimes across 26.7 minutes for Game 1. That's a total of 14.3 PRA, and I'm a little more bullish on Strus than our algorithm is as I think that minutes total might be a tad low.