Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where can we identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline (-142)
This game, on paper, has a lot of impact on the Eastern Conference standings.
The Bucks hold a three-game lead over the Boston Celtics as the 1 seed in the conference. Currently, numberFire's model gives Milwaukee an 86.9% probability to hold onto that top seed.
Boston is listing both Robert Williams and Grant Williams as questionable for this game. In non-garbage-time situations with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown active and those two off the floor, Boston's net rating is still +6.6.
Unfortunately for them, the Bucks' relevant net rating for this game (presuming their key players are active) is +10.6, and they hold home court advantage.
The caveat here is that the Bucks played last night, scoring a 149-136 win over the Indiana Pacers on the road to end a four-game road trip.
Since the break, Milwaukee is 6-2 at home with an opponent-adjusted point differential of +11.6. Boston's post-break road splits include a -1.4 opponent-adjusted point differential and a 6-5 record.
The main path to a Boston win is due to the rest differential, yet it doesn't seem large enough to make them the better bet.
New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets Moneyline (-255)
The betting angles for this game depend a lot on the health of Nikola Jokic, who is listed as questionable for tonight's matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans, who are the 9 seed in the Western Conference.
numberFire's season simulations give the Nuggets a 99.0% chance (98.96% taken to a second decimal) to conclude the regular season as the 1 seed in the West, so they have some wiggle room to rest Jokic, and they have a game tomorrow night against the Phoenix Suns in Phoenix.
New Orleans is the 9 seed in the Western Conference. They're 1.5 games back from the 6 seed and 1.5 games ahead of the 11 seed, so it's an important one for them to avoid slipping down the standings again.
The good news for the Pelicans: the Nuggets are only 2-2 in games with Jamal Murray active and Jokic out.
The bad news for the Pelicans: the Nuggets' wins were by 12 and 23, and their losses were by only 2 and 3, giving them a point differential of +7.5 across the four matchups.
The total and spread are too hard to nail down until we learn of Jokic's status. What does look viable either way is the Denver moneyline, which numberFire's model likes as a three-star play.