MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Friday 8/19/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U ImpliedTotal 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
SFJoseUrena11.56.3560.9%45.0%30.5%19.1%11.0%
COLAlexWood11.55.1541.0%26.0%15.0%7.8%3.8%
MILKeeganThompson9.04.7934.7%20.8%11.2%5.5%2.5%
STLTommyHenry8.54.7634.2%20.4%11.0%5.4%2.4%
SDPaoloEspino7.54.7433.9%20.1%10.8%5.2%2.3%
BALKutterCrawford9.04.5430.4%17.4%9.0%4.2%1.8%
LADJesusLuzardo7.54.5330.2%17.3%8.9%4.2%1.8%
MINMartinPerez8.54.5230.0%17.2%8.8%4.1%1.8%
BOSJordanLyles9.04.4629.0%16.4%8.3%3.8%1.6%
ATLLanceMcCullers8.54.4128.2%15.8%7.9%3.6%1.5%
CHCAaronAshby9.04.2124.8%13.4%6.5%2.8%1.1%
CINBryseWilson8.04.1023.1%12.1%5.7%2.4%1.0%
PHIChrisBassitt8.04.1023.1%12.1%5.7%2.4%1.0%
HOUKyleWright8.54.0922.9%12.0%5.7%2.4%0.9%
NYYKevinGausman8.04.0622.4%11.7%5.5%2.3%0.9%
TEXDylanBundy8.53.9821.2%10.9%5.0%2.1%0.8%
SEAColeIrvin7.53.9721.0%10.8%4.9%2.0%0.8%
TORJamesonTaillon8.03.9420.6%10.5%4.8%2.0%0.7%
CLELanceLynn7.53.9320.4%10.4%4.7%1.9%0.7%
LAAMattManning7.53.9320.4%10.4%4.7%1.9%0.7%
NYMAaronNola8.03.9019.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
PITGrahamAshcraft8.03.9019.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
TBBradySinger6.53.7517.7%8.6%3.8%1.5%0.5%
ARIMilesMikolas8.53.7417.6%8.5%3.7%1.5%0.5%
CHWTristonMcKenzie7.53.5715.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%
DETPatrickSandoval7.53.5715.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%
OAKMarcoGonzales7.53.5314.6%6.8%2.8%1.0%0.4%
MIATylerAnderson7.52.978.1%3.2%1.1%0.4%0.1%
WSHBlakeSnell7.52.766.2%2.3%0.7%0.2%0.1%
KCShaneMcClanahan6.52.756.1%2.2%0.7%0.2%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp KProj 3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
ShaneMcClanahanKC7.995.5%89.4%79.9%67.4%53.3%39.3%27.1%
BlakeSnellWSH7.594.1%86.9%76.0%62.3%47.7%33.9%22.5%
AaronNolaNYM7.292.7%84.3%72.2%57.7%42.8%29.5%18.8%
KevinGausmanNYY6.387.7%75.8%60.7%44.8%30.4%19.0%10.9%
ChrisBassittPHI6.185.7%72.8%57.0%41.0%27.0%16.3%9.1%
PatrickSandovalDET5.680.7%65.5%48.5%32.7%20.0%11.3%5.8%
TristonMcKenzieCHW5.680.4%65.0%48.0%32.2%19.7%11.0%5.6%
LanceMcCullersATL5.580.2%64.7%47.6%31.9%19.4%10.8%5.5%
JamesonTaillonTOR5.579.3%63.5%46.2%30.6%18.4%10.1%5.1%
KyleWrightHOU5.579.3%63.5%46.2%30.6%18.4%10.1%5.1%
JesusLuzardoLAD5.478.1%61.9%44.5%29.1%17.2%9.3%4.6%
LanceLynnCLE5.377.7%61.4%44.0%28.6%16.9%9.1%4.5%
TylerAndersonMIA5.377.6%61.2%43.8%28.4%16.8%9.0%4.5%
AaronAshbyCHC5.175.3%58.2%40.7%25.7%14.7%7.7%3.7%
BradySingerTB5.174.9%57.7%40.2%25.3%14.4%7.5%3.6%
MartinPerezMIN5.074.1%56.6%39.1%24.4%13.8%7.1%3.3%
MarcoGonzalesOAK4.769.0%50.5%33.2%19.5%10.4%5.0%2.2%
AlexWoodCOL4.768.9%50.4%33.0%19.4%10.3%5.0%2.2%
KutterCrawfordBAL4.565.4%46.4%29.4%16.6%8.5%3.9%1.7%
ColeIrvinSEA4.463.5%44.3%27.5%15.3%7.6%3.5%1.4%
JordanLylesBOS4.362.8%43.5%26.8%14.8%7.3%3.3%1.3%
MilesMikolasARI4.361.9%42.6%26.0%14.2%7.0%3.1%1.3%
GrahamAshcraftPIT4.261.0%41.6%25.2%13.6%6.6%2.9%1.2%
DylanBundyTEX4.260.3%40.8%24.5%13.1%6.3%2.8%1.1%
TommyHenrySTL4.158.2%38.7%22.7%11.9%5.6%2.4%0.9%
KeeganThompsonMIL4.057.4%37.9%22.1%11.5%5.4%2.3%0.9%
MattManningLAA3.750.6%31.3%17.0%8.2%3.5%1.4%0.5%
BryseWilsonCIN3.647.6%28.6%15.0%7.0%2.9%1.1%0.4%
PaoloEspinoSD3.443.9%25.4%12.8%5.7%2.3%0.8%0.3%
JoseUrenaSF3.342.8%24.5%12.2%5.4%2.1%0.7%0.2%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team SplitAdv? HRPF OppSP HRProb% xHROdds
JocPedersonSFYes109JoseUrena29.5%+240
ByronBuxtonMINYes98MartinPerez24.5%+310
RafaelDeversBOSYes110JordanLyles23.7%+320
NolanArenadoSTLYes93TommyHenry23.2%+330
MattOlsonATLYes100LanceMcCullers23.2%+330
LaMonteWadeJrSFYes109JoseUrena23.1%+335
AdolisGarciaTEXNo98DylanBundy23.0%+335
AustinRileyATLNo97LanceMcCullers22.8%+340
EvanLongoriaSFNo108JoseUrena22.6%+345
VladimirGuerreroJr.TORNo103JamesonTaillon22.3%+350
MikeTroutLAANo99MattManning22.2%+350
ChadPinderOAKYes94MarcoGonzales21.9%+355
WillyAdamesMILNo103KeeganThompson21.8%+360
TreaTurnerLADYes107JesusLuzardo21.8%+360
FranciscoLindorNYMYes106AaronNola21.6%+365
BryanReynoldsPITYes95GrahamAshcraft21.4%+365
AaronJudgeNYYNo103KevinGausman21.3%+370
JoseRamirezCLEYes103LanceLynn21.1%+375
CoreySeagerTEXYes99DylanBundy21.1%+375
WilliamContrerasATLNo97LanceMcCullers20.9%+380
ShoheiOhtaniLAAYes94MattManning20.8%+380
TeoscarHernandezTORNo103JamesonTaillon20.8%+380
HunterRenfroeMILNo103KeeganThompson20.8%+380
PatrickWisdomCHCYes103AaronAshby20.7%+385
RhysHoskinsPHINo110ChrisBassitt20.6%+385
SalvadorPerezKCYes94ShaneMcClanahan20.4%+390
RyanMountcastleBALNo112KutterCrawford20.3%+390
MookieBettsLADYes107JesusLuzardo20.0%+400
WilmerFloresSFNo108JoseUrena19.8%+405
MikeYastrzemskiSFYes109JoseUrena19.7%+410
YordanAlvarezHOUYes100KyleWright19.6%+410
EugenioSuarezSEAYes94ColeIrvin19.3%+420
AnthonySantanderBALYes110KutterCrawford19.2%+420
PaulGoldschmidtSTLYes93TommyHenry19.1%+420
RowdyTellezMILYes96KeeganThompson19.0%+425
C.J.CronCOLYes108AlexWood18.9%+430
JuanSotoSDYes95PaoloEspino18.8%+430
PeteAlonsoNYMNo110AaronNola18.2%+450
ChristianWalkerARINo93MilesMikolas18.2%+450
SeanMurphyOAKYes94MarcoGonzales18.2%+450
JorgePolancoMINYes98MartinPerez18.1%+450
JaredWalshLAAYes94MattManning18.1%+450
JesusAguilarMIAYes107TylerAnderson18.1%+450
ChrisTaylorLADYes107JesusLuzardo18.1%+450
TrayceThompsonLADYes107JesusLuzardo18.1%+450
DarickHallPHIYes106ChrisBassitt18.0%+455
JonahHeimTEXYes99DylanBundy17.7%+465
JulioRodriguezSEAYes94ColeIrvin17.6%+470
MannyMachadoSDNo96PaoloEspino17.5%+470
AlbertPujolsSTLYes93TommyHenry17.4%+475
SethBrownOAKNo92MarcoGonzales17.4%+475
LuisRobertCHWNo99TristonMcKenzie17.4%+475
JoeyBartSFNo108JoseUrena17.3%+480
LuisUriasMILNo103KeeganThompson17.3%+480
KyleTuckerHOUYes100KyleWright17.2%+480
JakeFraleyCINYes95BryseWilson17.1%+485
BrandonBeltSFYes109JoseUrena17.1%+485
JoseAltuveHOUNo97KyleWright17.1%+485
JoshNaylorCLEYes103LanceLynn17.0%+490
CarlosCorreaMINYes98MartinPerez16.9%+490
WillSmithLADYes107JesusLuzardo16.7%+500
KyleSchwarberPHIYes106ChrisBassitt16.7%+500
MattChapmanTORNo103JamesonTaillon16.7%+500
TommyPhamBOSNo112JordanLyles16.5%+505
RamonUriasBALNo112KutterCrawford16.5%+505
BrandonDrurySDNo96PaoloEspino16.4%+510
GioUrshelaMINYes98MartinPerez16.3%+515
NelsonVelazquezCHCYes103AaronAshby16.2%+515
EloyJimenezCHWNo99TristonMcKenzie16.2%+520
Ji-ManChoiTBYes92BradySinger16.1%+520
GleyberTorresNYYNo103KevinGausman16.0%+525
BoBichetteTORNo103JamesonTaillon16.0%+525
ChasMcCormickHOUNo97KyleWright15.9%+530
NathanielLoweTEXYes99DylanBundy15.8%+530
DaultonVarshoARIYes99MilesMikolas15.8%+530
AristidesAquinoCINNo92BryseWilson15.8%+530
MitchHanigerSEAYes94ColeIrvin15.7%+535
TyFranceSEAYes94ColeIrvin15.7%+535
FreddieFreemanLADNo102JesusLuzardo15.7%+535
MaxMuncyLADNo102JesusLuzardo15.7%+535
AndresGimenezCLEYes103LanceLynn15.7%+540
JoseMirandaMINYes98MartinPerez15.6%+540
BrandonLoweTBYes92BradySinger15.5%+545
RandyArozarenaTBNo94BradySinger15.5%+545
GeorgeSpringerTORNo103JamesonTaillon15.4%+550
EmmanuelRiveraARINo93MilesMikolas15.4%+550
RonaldAcunaATLNo97LanceMcCullers15.3%+555
CedricMullinsBALYes110KutterCrawford15.1%+560
AdleyRutschmanBALYes110KutterCrawford15.1%+560
DavidPeraltaTBYes92BradySinger14.9%+570
DannyJansenTORNo103JamesonTaillon14.7%+580
LaneThomasWSHYes96BlakeSnell14.7%+580
DanVogelbachNYMYes106AaronNola14.7%+580
MichaelHarrisIIATLYes100LanceMcCullers14.6%+585
CalRaleighSEAYes94ColeIrvin14.4%+595
MarcusSemienTEXNo98DylanBundy14.1%+610
WillsonContrerasCHCYes103AaronAshby14.1%+610
FranmilReyesCHCYes103AaronAshby14.1%+610
DansbySwansonATLNo97LanceMcCullers14.0%+615
EricHaaseDETYes99PatrickSandoval13.6%+635
TaylorWardLAANo99MattManning13.6%+635
BrandonCrawfordSFYes109JoseUrena13.5%+640
JonathanIndiaCINNo92BryseWilson13.4%+645
JesseWinkerSEANo92ColeIrvin13.4%+650
MartinMaldonadoHOUNo97KyleWright13.3%+650
NickFortesMIAYes107TylerAnderson13.0%+670
JeimerCandelarioDETYes99PatrickSandoval12.9%+675
MaxStassiLAANo99MattManning12.9%+675
YoanMoncadaCHWYes103TristonMcKenzie12.9%+675
EricHosmerBOSYes110JordanLyles12.8%+680
VictorCaratiniMILYes96KeeganThompson12.8%+680
J.D.MartinezBOSNo112JordanLyles12.8%+680
XanderBogaertsBOSNo112JordanLyles12.8%+680
OneilCruzPITYes95GrahamAshcraft12.7%+685
Travisd'ArnaudATLNo97LanceMcCullers12.7%+690
TreyManciniHOUNo97KyleWright12.7%+690
NicoHoernerCHCYes103AaronAshby12.6%+695
LuisRengifoLAAYes94MattManning12.6%+695
BrandonNimmoNYMYes106AaronNola12.4%+705
BobbyWittJr.KCYes94ShaneMcClanahan12.4%+710
RandalGrichukCOLYes108AlexWood12.3%+710
MJMelendezKCNo92ShaneMcClanahan12.3%+715
VinniePasquantinoKCNo92ShaneMcClanahan12.3%+715
PaulDeJongSTLYes93TommyHenry12.2%+715
ChristianYelichMILYes96KeeganThompson12.1%+725
RougnedOdorBALYes110KutterCrawford12.1%+730
JuricksonProfarSDYes95PaoloEspino12.0%+730
JoshBellSDYes95PaoloEspino12.0%+730
TrentGrishamSDYes95PaoloEspino12.0%+730
VaughnGrissomATLNo97LanceMcCullers12.0%+735
AndrewMcCutchenMILNo103KeeganThompson11.9%+740
TyroneTaylorMILNo103KeeganThompson11.9%+740
LukeVoitWSHYes96BlakeSnell11.9%+745
StarlingMarteNYMNo110AaronNola11.8%+745
NickCastellanosPHINo110ChrisBassitt11.8%+745
KetelMarteARIYes99MilesMikolas11.7%+750
A.J.PollockCHWNo99TristonMcKenzie11.5%+770
OscarGonzalezCLENo99LanceLynn11.5%+770
BrendanRodgersCOLYes108AlexWood11.5%+770
JavierBaezDETYes99PatrickSandoval11.4%+775
YasmaniGrandalCHWYes103TristonMcKenzie11.4%+780
JeremyPenaHOUNo97KyleWright11.3%+785
LarsNootbaarSTLNo99TommyHenry11.3%+790
EnriqueHernandezBOSNo112JordanLyles11.2%+795
EddieRosarioATLYes100LanceMcCullers11.1%+800
SeiyaSuzukiCHCYes103AaronAshby11.0%+805
ChristopherMorelCHCYes103AaronAshby11.0%+805
BradMillerTEXYes99DylanBundy11.0%+810
SheldonNeuseOAKYes94MarcoGonzales10.9%+815
ThairoEstradaSFNo108JoseUrena10.8%+820
KyleFarmerCINNo92BryseWilson10.8%+825
JoseAbreuCHWNo99TristonMcKenzie10.8%+830
AndrewVaughnCHWNo99TristonMcKenzie10.8%+830
KoltenWongMILYes96KeeganThompson10.7%+835
BenGamelPITYes95GrahamAshcraft10.6%+840
JakeCronenworthSDYes95PaoloEspino10.6%+840
GarrettCooperMIAYes107TylerAnderson10.6%+845
DJLeMahieuNYYNo103KevinGausman10.4%+860
SantiagoEspinalTORNo103JamesonTaillon10.4%+860
CesarHernandezWSHYes96BlakeSnell10.4%+865
AnthonyRizzoNYYYes109KevinGausman10.3%+865
YandyDiazTBNo94BradySinger10.3%+870
J.T.RealmutoPHINo110ChrisBassitt10.2%+880
HunterDozierKCYes94ShaneMcClanahan10.2%+885
DylanCarlsonSTLYes93TommyHenry10.1%+890
AlexBregmanHOUNo97KyleWright9.9%+915
JustinTurnerLADYes107JesusLuzardo9.7%+930
JoshDonaldsonNYYNo103KevinGausman9.6%+940
ChristianArroyoBOSNo112JordanLyles9.5%+950
JorgeMateoBALNo112KutterCrawford9.5%+950
AlekThomasARIYes99MilesMikolas9.5%+955
DavidMacKinnonOAKYes94MarcoGonzales9.4%+960
JoshHarrisonCHWNo99TristonMcKenzie9.3%+975
DavidFletcherLAANo99MattManning9.3%+975
BradleyZimmerPHIYes106ChrisBassitt9.3%+980
WilliCastroDETYes99PatrickSandoval9.1%+1005
ElehurisMonteroCOLYes108AlexWood8.9%+1025
IldemaroVargasWSHYes96BlakeSnell8.8%+1035
JoeyMenesesWSHYes96BlakeSnell8.8%+1035
CharlieBlackmonCOLNo109AlexWood8.8%+1035
AlexVerdugoBOSYes110JordanLyles8.7%+1050
AlbertAlmoraJr.CINNo92BryseWilson8.7%+1050
JoseBarreroCINNo92BryseWilson8.7%+1050
IanHappCHCYes103AaronAshby8.5%+1070
JoAdellLAANo99MattManning8.5%+1070
BrysonStottPHIYes106ChrisBassitt8.4%+1085
MikePapierskiCINYes95BryseWilson8.4%+1090
MiguelCabreraDETYes99PatrickSandoval8.2%+1115
HaroldRamirezTBNo94BradySinger8.1%+1130
MaxKeplerMINNo99MartinPerez8.1%+1140
LourdesGurrielTORNo103JamesonTaillon8.0%+1145
JoseTrevinoNYYNo103KevinGausman8.0%+1145