MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 6/27/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U ImpliedTotal 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
LADChadKuhl11.56.5363.5%47.8%33.2%21.2%12.5%
NYYPaulBlackburn8.55.2643.0%27.7%16.2%8.6%4.2%
WSHZachThompson9.55.1340.7%25.7%14.7%7.7%3.7%
TORConnorSeabold9.05.0639.5%24.7%14.0%7.2%3.4%
COLTylerAnderson11.54.9737.9%23.3%13.0%6.6%3.1%
LAALucasGiolito8.54.5029.7%16.9%8.7%4.0%1.7%
TEXKrisBubic8.54.4729.2%16.5%8.4%3.9%1.6%
PITErickFedde9.54.3727.5%15.3%7.6%3.5%1.4%
MINTristonMcKenzie8.04.1123.2%12.2%5.8%2.5%1.0%
SEATylerWells7.54.0922.9%12.0%5.7%2.4%0.9%
KCMartinPerez8.54.0322.0%11.4%5.3%2.2%0.9%
CHWNoahSyndergaard8.54.0021.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
BOSKevinGausman9.03.9420.6%10.5%4.8%2.0%0.7%
STLPabloLopez7.53.9120.1%10.2%4.6%1.9%0.7%
CLESonnyGray8.03.8919.8%10.0%4.5%1.8%0.7%
MIAAdamWainwright7.53.5915.5%7.2%3.0%1.1%0.4%
BALGeorgeKirby7.53.4113.1%5.9%2.3%0.8%0.3%
OAKJordanMontgomery8.53.2411.0%4.7%1.8%0.6%0.2%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp KProj 3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
KevinGausmanBOS6.991.1%81.4%68.1%52.9%38.0%25.3%15.6%
LucasGiolitoLAA6.286.8%74.5%59.1%43.1%28.8%17.7%10.1%
PabloLopezSTL5.781.9%67.1%50.3%34.4%21.5%12.2%6.4%
TristonMcKenzieMIN5.680.5%65.2%48.1%32.3%19.8%11.1%5.7%
SonnyGrayCLE5.580.3%64.9%47.8%32.0%19.5%10.9%5.6%
JordanMontgomeryOAK5.478.2%62.0%44.7%29.2%17.4%9.4%4.7%
AdamWainwrightMIA4.972.2%54.4%36.8%22.5%12.4%6.2%2.9%
TylerAndersonCOL4.870.0%51.6%34.2%20.4%11.0%5.4%2.4%
MartinPerezKC4.769.2%50.7%33.3%19.7%10.5%5.1%2.2%
GeorgeKirbyBAL4.768.9%50.4%33.0%19.4%10.3%5.0%2.2%
ErickFeddePIT4.362.6%43.3%26.7%14.7%7.3%3.2%1.3%
NoahSyndergaardCHW4.260.8%41.4%25.0%13.5%6.5%2.9%1.1%
ChadKuhlLAD4.056.1%36.5%21.0%10.8%4.9%2.0%0.8%
TylerWellsSEA3.749.7%30.5%16.4%7.8%3.3%1.3%0.5%
KrisBubicTEX3.749.5%30.3%16.3%7.7%3.3%1.3%0.4%
PaulBlackburnNYY3.648.3%29.2%15.5%7.2%3.0%1.1%0.4%
ZachThompsonWSH3.444.4%25.8%13.1%5.9%2.3%0.8%0.3%
ConnorSeaboldTOR3.443.1%24.7%12.3%5.4%2.1%0.8%0.2%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Notes: The "Platoon?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Platoon? HRPFOppPitcher HRProb% xHROdds
ByronBuxtonMINNo99TristonMcKenzie29.6%+238
BryanReynoldsPITYes104ErickFedde28.1%+256
AaronJudgeNYYNo103PaulBlackburn26.8%+273
MikeTroutLAANo103LucasGiolito25.1%+298
C.J.CronCOLYes108TylerAnderson24.6%+306
TreaTurnerLADNo108ChadKuhl23.1%+333
RyanMountcastleBALNo99GeorgeKirby22.7%+341
RafaelDeversBOSYes94KevinGausman20.8%+381
TaylorWardLAANo103LucasGiolito20.8%+381
EugenioSuarezSEANo99TylerWells20.7%+383
NelsonCruzWSHNo106ZachThompson20.7%+384
AnthonySantanderBALYes96GeorgeKirby20.6%+386
JorgeSolerMIANo91AdamWainwright19.9%+401
GiancarloStantonNYYNo103PaulBlackburn19.7%+408
JoeyGalloNYYYes109PaulBlackburn19.7%+409
ShoheiOhtaniLAAYes108LucasGiolito19.5%+412
CarlosCorreaMINNo99TristonMcKenzie19.1%+424
FreddieFreemanLADYes109ChadKuhl19.0%+425
RougnedOdorBALYes96GeorgeKirby19.0%+427
JackSuwinskiPITYes104ErickFedde19.0%+427
JaredWalshLAAYes108LucasGiolito18.3%+447
AustinHaysBALNo99GeorgeKirby18.0%+457
JoshDonaldsonNYYNo103PaulBlackburn17.9%+458
MitchGarverTEXYes92KrisBubic17.9%+460
TaylorTrammellSEAYes96TylerWells17.8%+460
JuanSotoWSHYes104ZachThompson17.8%+463
JonahHeimTEXYes92KrisBubic17.3%+479
RyanMcMahonCOLNo109TylerAnderson17.1%+484
AnthonyRizzoNYYYes109PaulBlackburn17.1%+485
WillSmithLADNo108ChadKuhl16.7%+500
JoshBellWSHYes104ZachThompson16.5%+507
NolanArenadoSTLNo91PabloLopez16.2%+516
JazzChisholmMIAYes97AdamWainwright16.2%+517
CodyBellingerLADYes109ChadKuhl15.7%+536
CedricMullinsBALYes96GeorgeKirby15.4%+548
A.J.PollockCHWNo103NoahSyndergaard15.4%+550
JoseAbreuCHWNo103NoahSyndergaard15.4%+550
JoseRamirezCLEYes103SonnyGray15.0%+567
MaxMuncyLADYes109ChadKuhl15.0%+567
CoreySeagerTEXNo92KrisBubic14.9%+570
JesusSanchezMIAYes97AdamWainwright14.9%+570
GarySanchezMINNo99TristonMcKenzie14.9%+571
SeanMurphyOAKYes103JordanMontgomery14.8%+574
CalRaleighSEAYes96TylerWells14.8%+576
JakeBurgerCHWNo103NoahSyndergaard14.7%+579
JulioRodriguezSEANo99TylerWells14.2%+602
MarcusSemienTEXYes92KrisBubic14.2%+606
ChristianBethancourtOAKYes103JordanMontgomery14.1%+609
LuisRobertCHWNo103NoahSyndergaard14.0%+612
GarrettCooperMIANo91AdamWainwright13.9%+620
DanVogelbachPITYes104ErickFedde13.7%+629
MichaelChavisPITNo106ErickFedde13.7%+632
GavinSheetsCHWYes108NoahSyndergaard13.4%+646
MaxStassiLAANo103LucasGiolito13.3%+650
AndrewVaughnCHWNo103NoahSyndergaard13.3%+650
ChrisTaylorLADNo108ChadKuhl13.1%+661
TrevorStoryBOSNo101KevinGausman13.1%+662
TreyManciniBALNo99GeorgeKirby12.9%+675
FranmilReyesCLENo99SonnyGray12.9%+675
JorgeMateoBALNo99GeorgeKirby12.9%+675
MaxKeplerMINYes103TristonMcKenzie12.9%+676
JoshNaylorCLEYes103SonnyGray12.9%+676
NathanielLoweTEXNo92KrisBubic12.8%+680
JesusAguilarMIANo91AdamWainwright12.6%+691
DJLeMahieuNYYNo103PaulBlackburn12.6%+692
XanderBogaertsBOSNo101KevinGausman12.4%+705
HoyParkPITYes104ErickFedde12.2%+717
AlexKirilloffMINYes103TristonMcKenzie12.1%+723
AdolisGarciaTEXYes92KrisBubic12.1%+724
PaulGoldschmidtSTLNo91PabloLopez12.0%+733
KoleCalhounTEXNo92KrisBubic11.7%+754
TrayceThompsonLADNo108ChadKuhl11.6%+760
CharlieBlackmonCOLNo109TylerAnderson11.6%+764
GioUrshelaMINNo99TristonMcKenzie11.5%+769
JoseMirandaMINNo99TristonMcKenzie11.5%+769
JesseWinkerSEAYes96TylerWells11.4%+775
TimAndersonCHWNo103NoahSyndergaard11.2%+796
AndrewVelazquezLAAYes108LucasGiolito11.1%+803
JonahBrideOAKYes103JordanMontgomery11.0%+807
JustinTurnerLADNo108ChadKuhl10.8%+822
HunterDozierKCYes92MartinPerez10.7%+833
EmmanuelRiveraKCYes92MartinPerez10.7%+833
RandalGrichukCOLYes108TylerAnderson10.7%+839
BrandonMarshLAAYes108LucasGiolito10.3%+875
J.D.MartinezBOSNo101KevinGausman10.2%+878
SheldonNeuseOAKYes103JordanMontgomery10.2%+879
TylerNevinBALNo99GeorgeKirby10.0%+896
AvisailGarciaMIANo91AdamWainwright10.0%+899
AdleyRutschmanBALYes96GeorgeKirby10.0%+902
OneilCruzPITYes104ErickFedde9.9%+908
LaneThomasWSHNo106ZachThompson9.9%+912
AndresGimenezCLEYes103SonnyGray9.8%+917
NickGordonMINYes103TristonMcKenzie9.8%+917
EliasDiazCOLYes108TylerAnderson9.8%+921
GavinLuxLADYes109ChadKuhl9.5%+953
DylanMooreSEANo99TylerWells9.3%+976
CesarHernandezWSHYes104ZachThompson9.1%+998
MaikelFrancoWSHNo106ZachThompson9.1%+1002
JarrenDuranBOSYes94KevinGausman9.1%+1004
MatthewDuffyLAANo103LucasGiolito8.8%+1031
GleyberTorresNYYNo103PaulBlackburn8.8%+1031
JuanYepezSTLNo91PabloLopez8.6%+1061
TommyEdmanSTLYes97PabloLopez8.6%+1069
AustinHedgesCLENo99SonnyGray8.5%+1072
EdwardOlivaresKCYes92MartinPerez8.5%+1080
AlexVerdugoBOSYes94KevinGausman8.3%+1103
MichaelPerezPITYes104ErickFedde8.3%+1108
BlighMadrisPITYes104ErickFedde8.3%+1108
LuisGarciaWSHNo106ZachThompson8.2%+1113
StevenKwanCLEYes103SonnyGray8.2%+1119
AndrewBenintendiKCNo92MartinPerez8.2%+1125
JoshHarrisonCHWNo103NoahSyndergaard8.0%+1145
NolanGormanSTLYes97PabloLopez7.8%+1187
JustinUptonSEANo99TylerWells7.7%+1191
AmedRosarioCLENo99SonnyGray7.7%+1191
MylesStrawCLENo99SonnyGray7.7%+1191
CarlosSantanaKCYes92MartinPerez7.7%+1199
LeodyTaverasTEXYes92KrisBubic7.7%+1199
BobbyWittJr.KCYes92MartinPerez7.7%+1199
LuisRengifoLAAYes108LucasGiolito7.7%+1199
RamonLaureanoOAKYes103JordanMontgomery7.7%+1205
YadielHernandezWSHYes104ZachThompson7.4%+1245
JoseTrevinoNYYNo103PaulBlackburn7.2%+1287
JoseIglesiasCOLYes108TylerAnderson7.1%+1312
BrendanRodgersCOLYes108TylerAnderson7.1%+1312
OscarGonzalezCLENo99SonnyGray7.0%+1338
MJMelendezKCNo92MartinPerez6.9%+1348
ReeseMcGuireCHWYes108NoahSyndergaard6.8%+1370
ElvisAndrusOAKYes103JordanMontgomery6.8%+1376
ChadPinderOAKYes103JordanMontgomery6.8%+1376