Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
Team | Opp SP | O/U | ImpliedTotal | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
LAD | ChadKuhl | 11.5 | 6.53 | 63.5% | 47.8% | 33.2% | 21.2% | 12.5% |
NYY | PaulBlackburn | 8.5 | 5.26 | 43.0% | 27.7% | 16.2% | 8.6% | 4.2% |
WSH | ZachThompson | 9.5 | 5.13 | 40.7% | 25.7% | 14.7% | 7.7% | 3.7% |
TOR | ConnorSeabold | 9.0 | 5.06 | 39.5% | 24.7% | 14.0% | 7.2% | 3.4% |
COL | TylerAnderson | 11.5 | 4.97 | 37.9% | 23.3% | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.1% |
LAA | LucasGiolito | 8.5 | 4.50 | 29.7% | 16.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
TEX | KrisBubic | 8.5 | 4.47 | 29.2% | 16.5% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
PIT | ErickFedde | 9.5 | 4.37 | 27.5% | 15.3% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
MIN | TristonMcKenzie | 8.0 | 4.11 | 23.2% | 12.2% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
SEA | TylerWells | 7.5 | 4.09 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
KC | MartinPerez | 8.5 | 4.03 | 22.0% | 11.4% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
CHW | NoahSyndergaard | 8.5 | 4.00 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
BOS | KevinGausman | 9.0 | 3.94 | 20.6% | 10.5% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
STL | PabloLopez | 7.5 | 3.91 | 20.1% | 10.2% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
CLE | SonnyGray | 8.0 | 3.89 | 19.8% | 10.0% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
MIA | AdamWainwright | 7.5 | 3.59 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
BAL | GeorgeKirby | 7.5 | 3.41 | 13.1% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
OAK | JordanMontgomery | 8.5 | 3.24 | 11.0% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Pitcher | Opp | KProj | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
KevinGausman | BOS | 6.9 | 91.1% | 81.4% | 68.1% | 52.9% | 38.0% | 25.3% | 15.6% |
LucasGiolito | LAA | 6.2 | 86.8% | 74.5% | 59.1% | 43.1% | 28.8% | 17.7% | 10.1% |
PabloLopez | STL | 5.7 | 81.9% | 67.1% | 50.3% | 34.4% | 21.5% | 12.2% | 6.4% |
TristonMcKenzie | MIN | 5.6 | 80.5% | 65.2% | 48.1% | 32.3% | 19.8% | 11.1% | 5.7% |
SonnyGray | CLE | 5.5 | 80.3% | 64.9% | 47.8% | 32.0% | 19.5% | 10.9% | 5.6% |
JordanMontgomery | OAK | 5.4 | 78.2% | 62.0% | 44.7% | 29.2% | 17.4% | 9.4% | 4.7% |
AdamWainwright | MIA | 4.9 | 72.2% | 54.4% | 36.8% | 22.5% | 12.4% | 6.2% | 2.9% |
TylerAnderson | COL | 4.8 | 70.0% | 51.6% | 34.2% | 20.4% | 11.0% | 5.4% | 2.4% |
MartinPerez | KC | 4.7 | 69.2% | 50.7% | 33.3% | 19.7% | 10.5% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
GeorgeKirby | BAL | 4.7 | 68.9% | 50.4% | 33.0% | 19.4% | 10.3% | 5.0% | 2.2% |
ErickFedde | PIT | 4.3 | 62.6% | 43.3% | 26.7% | 14.7% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
NoahSyndergaard | CHW | 4.2 | 60.8% | 41.4% | 25.0% | 13.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
ChadKuhl | LAD | 4.0 | 56.1% | 36.5% | 21.0% | 10.8% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
TylerWells | SEA | 3.7 | 49.7% | 30.5% | 16.4% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
KrisBubic | TEX | 3.7 | 49.5% | 30.3% | 16.3% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
PaulBlackburn | NYY | 3.6 | 48.3% | 29.2% | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
ZachThompson | WSH | 3.4 | 44.4% | 25.8% | 13.1% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
ConnorSeabold | TOR | 3.4 | 43.1% | 24.7% | 12.3% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Notes: The "Platoon?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.
Batter | Team | Platoon? | HRPF | OppPitcher | HRProb% | xHROdds |
ByronBuxton | MIN | No | 99 | TristonMcKenzie | 29.6% | +238 |
BryanReynolds | PIT | Yes | 104 | ErickFedde | 28.1% | +256 |
AaronJudge | NYY | No | 103 | PaulBlackburn | 26.8% | +273 |
MikeTrout | LAA | No | 103 | LucasGiolito | 25.1% | +298 |
C.J.Cron | COL | Yes | 108 | TylerAnderson | 24.6% | +306 |
TreaTurner | LAD | No | 108 | ChadKuhl | 23.1% | +333 |
RyanMountcastle | BAL | No | 99 | GeorgeKirby | 22.7% | +341 |
RafaelDevers | BOS | Yes | 94 | KevinGausman | 20.8% | +381 |
TaylorWard | LAA | No | 103 | LucasGiolito | 20.8% | +381 |
EugenioSuarez | SEA | No | 99 | TylerWells | 20.7% | +383 |
NelsonCruz | WSH | No | 106 | ZachThompson | 20.7% | +384 |
AnthonySantander | BAL | Yes | 96 | GeorgeKirby | 20.6% | +386 |
JorgeSoler | MIA | No | 91 | AdamWainwright | 19.9% | +401 |
GiancarloStanton | NYY | No | 103 | PaulBlackburn | 19.7% | +408 |
JoeyGallo | NYY | Yes | 109 | PaulBlackburn | 19.7% | +409 |
ShoheiOhtani | LAA | Yes | 108 | LucasGiolito | 19.5% | +412 |
CarlosCorrea | MIN | No | 99 | TristonMcKenzie | 19.1% | +424 |
FreddieFreeman | LAD | Yes | 109 | ChadKuhl | 19.0% | +425 |
RougnedOdor | BAL | Yes | 96 | GeorgeKirby | 19.0% | +427 |
JackSuwinski | PIT | Yes | 104 | ErickFedde | 19.0% | +427 |
JaredWalsh | LAA | Yes | 108 | LucasGiolito | 18.3% | +447 |
AustinHays | BAL | No | 99 | GeorgeKirby | 18.0% | +457 |
JoshDonaldson | NYY | No | 103 | PaulBlackburn | 17.9% | +458 |
MitchGarver | TEX | Yes | 92 | KrisBubic | 17.9% | +460 |
TaylorTrammell | SEA | Yes | 96 | TylerWells | 17.8% | +460 |
JuanSoto | WSH | Yes | 104 | ZachThompson | 17.8% | +463 |
JonahHeim | TEX | Yes | 92 | KrisBubic | 17.3% | +479 |
RyanMcMahon | COL | No | 109 | TylerAnderson | 17.1% | +484 |
AnthonyRizzo | NYY | Yes | 109 | PaulBlackburn | 17.1% | +485 |
WillSmith | LAD | No | 108 | ChadKuhl | 16.7% | +500 |
JoshBell | WSH | Yes | 104 | ZachThompson | 16.5% | +507 |
NolanArenado | STL | No | 91 | PabloLopez | 16.2% | +516 |
JazzChisholm | MIA | Yes | 97 | AdamWainwright | 16.2% | +517 |
CodyBellinger | LAD | Yes | 109 | ChadKuhl | 15.7% | +536 |
CedricMullins | BAL | Yes | 96 | GeorgeKirby | 15.4% | +548 |
A.J.Pollock | CHW | No | 103 | NoahSyndergaard | 15.4% | +550 |
JoseAbreu | CHW | No | 103 | NoahSyndergaard | 15.4% | +550 |
JoseRamirez | CLE | Yes | 103 | SonnyGray | 15.0% | +567 |
MaxMuncy | LAD | Yes | 109 | ChadKuhl | 15.0% | +567 |
CoreySeager | TEX | No | 92 | KrisBubic | 14.9% | +570 |
JesusSanchez | MIA | Yes | 97 | AdamWainwright | 14.9% | +570 |
GarySanchez | MIN | No | 99 | TristonMcKenzie | 14.9% | +571 |
SeanMurphy | OAK | Yes | 103 | JordanMontgomery | 14.8% | +574 |
CalRaleigh | SEA | Yes | 96 | TylerWells | 14.8% | +576 |
JakeBurger | CHW | No | 103 | NoahSyndergaard | 14.7% | +579 |
JulioRodriguez | SEA | No | 99 | TylerWells | 14.2% | +602 |
MarcusSemien | TEX | Yes | 92 | KrisBubic | 14.2% | +606 |
ChristianBethancourt | OAK | Yes | 103 | JordanMontgomery | 14.1% | +609 |
LuisRobert | CHW | No | 103 | NoahSyndergaard | 14.0% | +612 |
GarrettCooper | MIA | No | 91 | AdamWainwright | 13.9% | +620 |
DanVogelbach | PIT | Yes | 104 | ErickFedde | 13.7% | +629 |
MichaelChavis | PIT | No | 106 | ErickFedde | 13.7% | +632 |
GavinSheets | CHW | Yes | 108 | NoahSyndergaard | 13.4% | +646 |
MaxStassi | LAA | No | 103 | LucasGiolito | 13.3% | +650 |
AndrewVaughn | CHW | No | 103 | NoahSyndergaard | 13.3% | +650 |
ChrisTaylor | LAD | No | 108 | ChadKuhl | 13.1% | +661 |
TrevorStory | BOS | No | 101 | KevinGausman | 13.1% | +662 |
TreyMancini | BAL | No | 99 | GeorgeKirby | 12.9% | +675 |
FranmilReyes | CLE | No | 99 | SonnyGray | 12.9% | +675 |
JorgeMateo | BAL | No | 99 | GeorgeKirby | 12.9% | +675 |
MaxKepler | MIN | Yes | 103 | TristonMcKenzie | 12.9% | +676 |
JoshNaylor | CLE | Yes | 103 | SonnyGray | 12.9% | +676 |
NathanielLowe | TEX | No | 92 | KrisBubic | 12.8% | +680 |
JesusAguilar | MIA | No | 91 | AdamWainwright | 12.6% | +691 |
DJLeMahieu | NYY | No | 103 | PaulBlackburn | 12.6% | +692 |
XanderBogaerts | BOS | No | 101 | KevinGausman | 12.4% | +705 |
HoyPark | PIT | Yes | 104 | ErickFedde | 12.2% | +717 |
AlexKirilloff | MIN | Yes | 103 | TristonMcKenzie | 12.1% | +723 |
AdolisGarcia | TEX | Yes | 92 | KrisBubic | 12.1% | +724 |
PaulGoldschmidt | STL | No | 91 | PabloLopez | 12.0% | +733 |
KoleCalhoun | TEX | No | 92 | KrisBubic | 11.7% | +754 |
TrayceThompson | LAD | No | 108 | ChadKuhl | 11.6% | +760 |
CharlieBlackmon | COL | No | 109 | TylerAnderson | 11.6% | +764 |
GioUrshela | MIN | No | 99 | TristonMcKenzie | 11.5% | +769 |
JoseMiranda | MIN | No | 99 | TristonMcKenzie | 11.5% | +769 |
JesseWinker | SEA | Yes | 96 | TylerWells | 11.4% | +775 |
TimAnderson | CHW | No | 103 | NoahSyndergaard | 11.2% | +796 |
AndrewVelazquez | LAA | Yes | 108 | LucasGiolito | 11.1% | +803 |
JonahBride | OAK | Yes | 103 | JordanMontgomery | 11.0% | +807 |
JustinTurner | LAD | No | 108 | ChadKuhl | 10.8% | +822 |
HunterDozier | KC | Yes | 92 | MartinPerez | 10.7% | +833 |
EmmanuelRivera | KC | Yes | 92 | MartinPerez | 10.7% | +833 |
RandalGrichuk | COL | Yes | 108 | TylerAnderson | 10.7% | +839 |
BrandonMarsh | LAA | Yes | 108 | LucasGiolito | 10.3% | +875 |
J.D.Martinez | BOS | No | 101 | KevinGausman | 10.2% | +878 |
SheldonNeuse | OAK | Yes | 103 | JordanMontgomery | 10.2% | +879 |
TylerNevin | BAL | No | 99 | GeorgeKirby | 10.0% | +896 |
AvisailGarcia | MIA | No | 91 | AdamWainwright | 10.0% | +899 |
AdleyRutschman | BAL | Yes | 96 | GeorgeKirby | 10.0% | +902 |
OneilCruz | PIT | Yes | 104 | ErickFedde | 9.9% | +908 |
LaneThomas | WSH | No | 106 | ZachThompson | 9.9% | +912 |
AndresGimenez | CLE | Yes | 103 | SonnyGray | 9.8% | +917 |
NickGordon | MIN | Yes | 103 | TristonMcKenzie | 9.8% | +917 |
EliasDiaz | COL | Yes | 108 | TylerAnderson | 9.8% | +921 |
GavinLux | LAD | Yes | 109 | ChadKuhl | 9.5% | +953 |
DylanMoore | SEA | No | 99 | TylerWells | 9.3% | +976 |
CesarHernandez | WSH | Yes | 104 | ZachThompson | 9.1% | +998 |
MaikelFranco | WSH | No | 106 | ZachThompson | 9.1% | +1002 |
JarrenDuran | BOS | Yes | 94 | KevinGausman | 9.1% | +1004 |
MatthewDuffy | LAA | No | 103 | LucasGiolito | 8.8% | +1031 |
GleyberTorres | NYY | No | 103 | PaulBlackburn | 8.8% | +1031 |
JuanYepez | STL | No | 91 | PabloLopez | 8.6% | +1061 |
TommyEdman | STL | Yes | 97 | PabloLopez | 8.6% | +1069 |
AustinHedges | CLE | No | 99 | SonnyGray | 8.5% | +1072 |
EdwardOlivares | KC | Yes | 92 | MartinPerez | 8.5% | +1080 |
AlexVerdugo | BOS | Yes | 94 | KevinGausman | 8.3% | +1103 |
MichaelPerez | PIT | Yes | 104 | ErickFedde | 8.3% | +1108 |
BlighMadris | PIT | Yes | 104 | ErickFedde | 8.3% | +1108 |
LuisGarcia | WSH | No | 106 | ZachThompson | 8.2% | +1113 |
StevenKwan | CLE | Yes | 103 | SonnyGray | 8.2% | +1119 |
AndrewBenintendi | KC | No | 92 | MartinPerez | 8.2% | +1125 |
JoshHarrison | CHW | No | 103 | NoahSyndergaard | 8.0% | +1145 |
NolanGorman | STL | Yes | 97 | PabloLopez | 7.8% | +1187 |
JustinUpton | SEA | No | 99 | TylerWells | 7.7% | +1191 |
AmedRosario | CLE | No | 99 | SonnyGray | 7.7% | +1191 |
MylesStraw | CLE | No | 99 | SonnyGray | 7.7% | +1191 |
CarlosSantana | KC | Yes | 92 | MartinPerez | 7.7% | +1199 |
LeodyTaveras | TEX | Yes | 92 | KrisBubic | 7.7% | +1199 |
BobbyWittJr. | KC | Yes | 92 | MartinPerez | 7.7% | +1199 |
LuisRengifo | LAA | Yes | 108 | LucasGiolito | 7.7% | +1199 |
RamonLaureano | OAK | Yes | 103 | JordanMontgomery | 7.7% | +1205 |
YadielHernandez | WSH | Yes | 104 | ZachThompson | 7.4% | +1245 |
JoseTrevino | NYY | No | 103 | PaulBlackburn | 7.2% | +1287 |
JoseIglesias | COL | Yes | 108 | TylerAnderson | 7.1% | +1312 |
BrendanRodgers | COL | Yes | 108 | TylerAnderson | 7.1% | +1312 |
OscarGonzalez | CLE | No | 99 | SonnyGray | 7.0% | +1338 |
MJMelendez | KC | No | 92 | MartinPerez | 6.9% | +1348 |
ReeseMcGuire | CHW | Yes | 108 | NoahSyndergaard | 6.8% | +1370 |
ElvisAndrus | OAK | Yes | 103 | JordanMontgomery | 6.8% | +1376 |
ChadPinder | OAK | Yes | 103 | JordanMontgomery | 6.8% | +1376 |