NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 3/28/23: Potential Play-In Previews Are Showing Value

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where can we identify value in tonight's NBA odds?

(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)

Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards

Over 224.0 (-110)
Boston Celtics Team Total Points: Over 118.5 (-105)

The Washington Wizards' playoff hopes are dwindling about as low as they can get before being mathematically eliminated. They've got a 1.4% chance to make the playoffs, via numberFire's model. They're three games back from the 10 seed in the Eastern Conference, and if their injury report is any indication, they're more ready to call it a season than they are to make a push.

Bradley Beal and Kyle Kuzma are out tonight, and a few other rotation pieces are questionable, so they won't be at full strength. Adjusting for these injury notes, the home side here is holding an abysmal -9.6 net rating over 1,068 relevant possessions -- but that comes with a terribly over-friendly defensive rating of 121.9.

As for the Boston Celtics, they are two games back from the 1 seed in the conference after a three-game winning streak. The 11.5-point spread is pretty large, though, and it's the total that makes the most sense here.

Boston's relevant offensive rating is 118.5, and once I combine everything, my model expects them to score 122.1 points in this matchup for a game total of 233.8.

Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors

Toronto Raptors Moneyline (-152)
Toronto Raptors -3.0 (-112)

Tonight, we'll see a matchup between teams in the play-in window in the Eastern Conference that features some betting value.

The Miami Heat are the 7 seed; the Raptors are the 9 seed.

Since the All-Star break, Miami is 8-8 with an opponent-adjusted point differential of -3.1 and a spread-adjusted point differential of -6.0. That comes with a 37.5% cover rate.

Toronto is 9-7 in that post-break split with an adjusted point differential of +5.2 and a 53.3% cover rate.

numberFire's model likes the Raptors' moneyline as a three-star play out of five (i.e. a three-unit recommendation) and has their spread as a one-star play.

My model likes the Raptors by 4.6, as well.

New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors

New Orleans Pelicans +9.0 (-114)

In the Western Conference, we also have a game between two play-in teams that is showing some value.

The Pelicans have strung together a five-game winning streak, which is the second-longest active winning streak in the NBA, and their playoff odds have risen from 20% on March 21st to 54% as of today, according to FiveThirtyEight's model.

That five-game streak does include some weak opponents (the list is the Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs, Charlotte Hornets, Los Angeles Clippers, and Portland Trail Blazers). However, they've been decimating the competition in that span, so it's easier to buy into the streak.

The Golden State Warriors will look to snap that streak at the Chase Center, where Golden State is 30-8 on the season. As the 7 seed, the Warriors need a win to try to get up out of the play-in after a costly loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last game out.

numberFire's model loves the Pelicans' chance to cover and rates it as a four-star play and as 67.1% likely to occur.

My model has the expected spread at 6.8, which is decidedly less of a smash play but something that still shows value.