Betting Splits and NFL Wild Card Sharp Money Picks for Sunday January 14

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I'll also be breaking down games this morning from 8 to 10 a.m. ET on The Sweat, live from the DraftKings studio in Boston.

You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for today's NFL Wild Card games.

4:30 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 50.5)

The Packers (9-8) are the 7-seed and won their final three games of the regular season, beating the Bears 17-9 in Week 18 and covering as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Cowboys (12-5) are the 2-seed are are riding a two-game winning streak, crushing the Commanders 38-10 in the regular season finale and easily covering as 13-point road favorites.

This line opened with the Cowboys listed as a 7-point home favorite. We saw this line creep up to Cowboys -7.5 early in the week. However, once the hook was available we saw sharp buyback on the Packers +7.5, dropping the line back down to Cowboys -7. The public is riding with Dallas, as 60% of bets are laying the points with the Cowboys.

The Packers have contrarian value as they are only receiving 40% of bets in addition to the sharp buyback in their favor. Playoff dogs are 44-30 ATS (59%) since 2017. Wild Card dogs are 21-11 ATS (66%) since 2017. Playoff dogs who missed the postseason the previous year, like the Packers here, are 35-17 ATS (67%) since 2017. The Texans covered in this spot yesterday against the Browns.

We've also seen the total rise from 49.5 to 50.5. Currently 65% of bets and 80% of money is sweating the over, a notable "low bets, higher dollars" bet discrepancy. However, historically we've seen these high totals go under in the postseason. When the total is 47 or more the under is 26-13 (67%) in the postseason since 2018.