Betting Splits and NFL Wild Card Sharp Money Picks for Monday January 15

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Monday's NFL Wild Card doubleheader.

4:30 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-10, 38.5)

The Steelers (10-7) are the 7-seed and won three straight to end the regular season, beating the Ravens 17-10 in Week 18 and covering as 3-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Bills (11-6) are the 2-seed and have won five straight, edging the Dolphins 21-14 in the regular season finale and covering as 2.5-point road favorites.

This line opened with the Bills listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. This line has bounced around all week, initially rising to Bills -10, then dropping to Bills -9 then rising back to Bills -10 after the game was postponed and moved to today due to the inclement weather in Buffalo. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know which side to take, with 50% of bets and dollars split evenly on both teams. Game day movement will be important here, especially as we sit on the key number of 10. If we start to see this line fall back to 9.5 across across the board that will be a good sign for the Steelers plus the points. But if this ticks up to -10.5 that will indicate respected money breaking toward laying the points with Buffalo.

The Steelers match several key playoff betting systems. Playoff dogs are 3-1 ATS this postseason and 46-30 ATS (61%) since 2017. Wild Card dogs are 23-11 ATS (68%) since 2017. Playoff dogs who missed the postseason the previous year are 3-0 ATS this postseason and 37-17 ATS (69%) since 2017. The Texans, Packers and Rams all covered in this spot over the weekend.

The Steelers have correlative betting value as a big dog in a low total game (38.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the big number. Mike Tomlin is 59-34 ATS (63%) as a dog in his career across the regular and postseason. Meanwhile, Josh Allen is 2-6 ATS in the postseason. The Bills also went just 2-6 ATS this season as a favorite of 7-point or more.

The total has also been on the move. It opened as high as 42.5 and plummeted all the way to 33 due to the expected snow storm. However, once the game was pushed back from Saturday to today we saw the total tick back up to 38.5 as the forecast has improved. We expect to see 15-20 degree temperatures with 10-15 MPH winds and gusts up to 25 MPH. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more in a playoff game the under is 11-6 (65%) since 2017. The Steelers and Bills both went 11-6 to the under this season, tied for the 2nd best under teams in the NFL.