Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for Saturday December 30: Lions at Cowboys

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I'll also be breaking down games this morning from 8 to 10 a.m. ET on The Sweat, LIVE from the DraftKings studio in Boston.

You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages using our VSiN Betting Splits.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for tonight's NFL showdown.

8:15 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5, 52)

The Lions (11-4) have won two straight games and just took down the Vikings 30-24, covering as 3-point road favorites. On the flip side, the Cowboys (10-5) have dropped two straight and just fell to the Dolphins 22-20, failing to cover as 1.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with the Cowboys listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. The public sees two playoff teams with impressive records and doesn't know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite the ticket count split down the middle 50/50, a closer look at the spread signals sneaky sharp money laying the points with Dallas. The Cowboys -5.5 is being juiced up to -115, signaling a possible gameday rise up to the key number of -6. Dallas is only receiving 49% of bets but 60% of money, a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet split.

The Cowboys have buy-low value as a team off two straight losses against a sell-high team that has won two straight. Dallas also has the motivational edge as the Cowboys are fighting for the NFC East crown with the Eagles while the Lions have already clinched their division. Home favorites who made the postseason the previous year, like Dallas here, are 41-33 ATS (55%) this season.

The Cowboys will also be a popular teaser play, as you can take them down to roughly a pick'em. Dallas is a perfect 7-0 at home compared to 3-5 on the road. The Cowboys also have the better defense, allowing 19 PPG (5th in the NFL) compared to 24 PPG (24th) allowed by the Lions. Brad Allen, the lead ref, is 56% ATS to the home team historically.

Pros have also leaned over, raising the total from 51 to 52. It briefly rose to 53 before some under buyback dropped it back down to 52. Currently 67% of bets and 82% of money is sweating the over. Primetime unders are 33-22 (59%) this season. However, they are 13-3 to the over in the last 16 primetime games.