AJ Brown Traded: The Fantasy Football Impact on the Eagles and Titans

In a first round full of draft trades, one that stands out above most is the deal between the Tennessee Titans and Philadelphia Eagles that sent star wide receiver AJ Brown to the Eagles in exchange for picks 18 and 101.

The Titans used the 18th pick to select Arkansas Razorbacks receiver Treylon Burks.

Here's how I project the two offenses in 2022 as a result.

Philadelphia Eagles 2022 Fantasy Football Projections

Player PassComp PassAtt PassYds PassTD PassINT RushAtt RushYds RushTD PPR PosRank
Jalen Hurts 333 528 3855 23.6 12.3 135 638 7.6 333.6 QB6


Player RushAtt RushYds RushTD RecTgt RecRec RecYds RecTD PPR PosRank
Miles Sanders 221 984 5.4 46 31 201 1.1 188.6 RB26
Kenneth Gainwell 83 299 1.6 35 24 184 1.0 88.0 RB53
Boston Scott 66 258 1.4 15 10 71 0.6 54.7 RB65
Dallas Goedert 91 61 682 4.5 156.5 TE8
A.J. Brown 111 70 969 5.6 200.3 WR33
DeVonta Smith 96 58 747 4.3 158.1 WR54
Zach Pascal 35 21 234 1.2 51.5 WR103
Quez Watkins 25 15 188 0.9 38.9 WR112
Jalen Reagor 11 66 0.4 15 19 194 0.9 52.4 WR101


Quick Takes: I bumped up the Eagles' expected pass rate a few percentage points, and while they still rank 26th in that department, it did help out with the projections for Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert.

Perhaps a WR20 ranking for Brown seems low, but it's still largely tied into the passing volume projection -- and touchdown totals. Market-share-wise, I have Brown projected for a 22% target share with Smith at 19% and Goedert at 18%. Basically a solid trio but with a little too few targets to make the most of near-20% shares for true fantasy football eliteness.

This move profiles as a better on-field move than it does for fantasy purposes.

As for Jalen Hurts, he's rating as the QB6 but not by much. He has true overall QB1 potential with his weapons and rushing potential.

Tennessee Titans 2022 Fantasy Football Projections

Player PassComp PassAtt PassYds PassTD PassINT RushAtt RushYds RushTD PPR PosRank
Ryan Tannehill 333 501 3661 21.5 12 61 292 2.1 250.4 QB20


Player RushAtt RushYds RushTD RecTgt RecRec RecYds RecTD PPR PosRank
Derrick Henry 358 1534 11.2 37 25 204 1 272.1 RB7
Dontrell Hilliard 83 440 3.2 53 34 287 1.4 134.5 RB41
Austin Hooper 63 42 456 3.1 106.4 TE24
Treylon Burks 116 75 969 5.3 203.9 WR32
Robert Woods 6 29 0.2 100 68 741 4 169.8 WR50
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 79 49 633 3.4 132 WR66


Quick Take: Losing AJ Brown led to bumping down Ryan Tannehill's efficiency numbers, which lowered his touchdown rate and increased his interception rate for my projections. He's the QB20, and it's hard to see how he can push for QB1 status in fantasy this season.

Derrick Henry is slated for another big workload no matter what and is my RB7 in PPR formats at the moment.

Usually, when penciling in rookie receivers, it's the first-rounders who get up toward 20% territory. The others rarely crack that mark with an initial projection. However, removing Brown (who I had projected for around 23% of the Titans' targets this year), there was just a lot of market share to fill in for Burks, who should produce at various levels of the field based on his profile.

He played mostly out of the slot at Arkansas and could see heavy volume in Year 1, though that doesn't mean top-15 fantasy material within a run-first offense.