Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals is Saturday night. With the series getting tighter, how should we shift our thinking? What is the best way to approach tonight's game?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Header links are to numberFire's betting model for each game. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Florida Panthers at Vegas Golden Knights
Under 5.5 (+100)
With a series-clinching game on tap tonight, don't expect a ton of scoring.
When it comes to the Stanley Cup Finals, a lack of scoring is the norm as the series goes on. We had a fun bit of scoring in the first two games, but the Florida Panthers and the Vegas Golden Knights have clamped things down over the last two games.
We saw this on display most notably in Game 4, where both teams combined for just 27 high-danger scoring chances, which was the lowest total of any game in this series. These teams are not only limiting the opposing scoring chances overall, but they are also limiting the ones that most often lead to goals.
This is directly leading to both goalies being able to perform at a high level and limit the goals. Both Adin Hill and Sergei Bobrovsky have posted positive goals saved above expectation (GSAx) in three of the four games thus far in this series.
Limiting scoring chances, limiting high-quality scoring chances, and great goalie play leads to a lack of scoring. Under 5.5 goals is the clear play tonight.