Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday Night Football.
8:15 p.m. ET: New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-4, 46)
The Saints (7-7) have won two straight games and just brushed aside the Giants 24-6, easily covering as 6-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Rams (7-7) have won four of their last five games and just edged the Commanders 28-20, covering as 6.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with the Rams listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public thinks this line is way too low and they're rushing to the window to lay the points with Los Angeles at home. However, despite the Rams receiving 80% of bets the line hasn't budged off Los Angeles -4. Normally, if a team is receiving such lopsided support you would see them move from -4 to -5 or even higher. The fact this line hasn't moved signals a sharp line freeze on New Orleans, with sportsbooks reluctant to move the spread for fear of giving out a better number to contrarian Saints backers.
The Saints have notable contrarian value, receiving only 20% of bets in a heavily bet primetime game. Primetime dogs are only 23-23 ATS on the season but 8-4 ATS over the last 12 matchups. The Seahawks won outright on Monday night as 5-point dog receiving only 21% of bets. Primetime dogs are 115-87 ATS (57%) since 2020. Short road dogs +6 or less are 206-147 ATS (58%) since 2019. Conference dogs +6 or less are 327-249 ATS (57%) since 2019. Derek Carr is 31-22 ATS (59%) as a road dog in his career.
Sharps have also leaned over, as the total has risen from 44.5 to 46. Currently 56% of bets and 73% of money is taking the over, signaling modest public support but also heavy smart money. Brad Rogers, the lead ref, is 57% to the over historically. The Rams are 8-6 to the under and the Saints are 10-4 to the under. Primetime unders are 32-17 (65%) this season, although the over is 8-3 over the last 11 primetime matchups.
Player Prop to Consider: Alvin Kamara over 31.5 receiving yards (-115). The Rams are allowing 226 passing yards per game, 21st in the NFL. Kamara has gone over this number in 8 of his last 9 games. Kamara is second on the team in targets with 78, trailing only Chris Olave. Kamara over 50.5 rushing yards (-120) is also being juiced up. Kamara has gone over this number in four straight games and is 9-2 to the over on the season. Kamara's combined rushing and receiving prop is 86.5 (-115).