MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Wednesday 5/18/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U ImpliedTotal 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
SF KyleFreeland 10.5 5.74 51.2% 35.2% 22.1% 12.7% 6.7%
LAD ZachDavies 8.0 4.92 37.0% 22.6% 12.5% 6.3% 2.9%
HOU NickPivetta 9.0 4.82 35.2% 21.2% 11.5% 5.7% 2.6%
COL LoganWebb 10.5 4.76 34.2% 20.4% 11.0% 5.4% 2.4%
TOR MarcoGonzales 8.0 4.75 34.0% 20.2% 10.9% 5.3% 2.4%
NYY JordanLyles 7.5 4.53 30.2% 17.3% 8.9% 4.2% 1.8%
CHW ZackGreinke 8.0 4.38 27.7% 15.4% 7.7% 3.5% 1.4%
PHI BlakeSnell 8.0 4.33 26.8% 14.8% 7.3% 3.3% 1.3%
MIA JosiahGray 7.5 4.27 25.8% 14.1% 6.9% 3.1% 1.2%
CLE TylerMahle 8.0 4.20 24.7% 13.3% 6.4% 2.8% 1.1%
BOS LuisGarcia 9.0 4.18 24.4% 13.0% 6.3% 2.7% 1.1%
LAA DaneDunning 7.5 4.11 23.2% 12.2% 5.8% 2.5% 1.0%
MIN DaultonJefferies 7.5 4.11 23.2% 12.2% 5.8% 2.5% 1.0%
CHC MitchKeller 7.5 4.09 22.9% 12.0% 5.7% 2.4% 0.9%
NYM JordanHicks 7.0 3.99 21.3% 11.0% 5.1% 2.1% 0.8%
CIN CalQuantrill 8.0 3.80 18.4% 9.1% 4.0% 1.6% 0.6%
SD ZackWheeler 8.0 3.67 16.6% 7.9% 3.4% 1.3% 0.5%
TB EduardoRodriguez 6.5 3.63 16.0% 7.6% 3.2% 1.2% 0.4%
KC LucasGiolito 8.0 3.62 15.9% 7.5% 3.2% 1.2% 0.4%
MIL MaxFried 6.5 3.46 13.7% 6.2% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3%
PIT DrewSmyly 7.5 3.41 13.1% 5.9% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3%
OAK SonnyGray 7.5 3.39 12.8% 5.7% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3%
TEX ShoheiOhtani 7.5 3.39 12.8% 5.7% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3%
SEA KevinGausman 8.0 3.25 11.1% 4.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
WSH PabloLopez 7.5 3.23 10.9% 4.6% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
ARI WalkerBuehler 8.0 3.08 9.2% 3.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
ATL CorbinBurnes 6.5 3.04 8.8% 3.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
STL MaxScherzer 7.0 3.01 8.5% 3.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
BAL GerritCole 7.5 2.97 8.1% 3.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
DET DrewRasmussen 6.5 2.87 7.1% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp KProj 3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
MaxScherzer STL 7.6 94% 87% 77% 63% 49% 35% 23%
CorbinBurnes ATL 7.3 93% 85% 73% 59% 44% 31% 20%
KevinGausman SEA 7.3 93% 85% 73% 59% 44% 30% 20%
ZackWheeler SD 7.1 92% 83% 71% 56% 41% 28% 18%
GerritCole BAL 7.0 92% 83% 70% 55% 40% 27% 17%
WalkerBuehler ARI 6.6 90% 79% 65% 49% 34% 22% 13%
LucasGiolito KC 6.2 86% 73% 58% 42% 28% 17% 9%
ShoheiOhtani TEX 6.0 85% 72% 56% 40% 26% 16% 9%
PabloLopez WSH 6.0 85% 72% 56% 40% 26% 15% 9%
MaxFried MIL 6.0 85% 71% 55% 39% 25% 15% 8%
EduardoRodriguez TB 5.4 78% 62% 45% 29% 17% 9% 5%
LuisGarcia BOS 5.4 78% 62% 45% 29% 17% 9% 5%
LoganWebb COL 5.3 77% 61% 44% 28% 17% 9% 4%
BlakeSnell PHI 5.2 77% 60% 42% 27% 16% 8% 4%
TylerMahle CLE 5.2 76% 59% 41% 26% 15% 8% 4%
JosiahGray MIA 5.2 76% 59% 41% 26% 15% 8% 4%
SonnyGray OAK 5.0 73% 56% 38% 24% 13% 7% 3%
NickPivetta HOU 5.0 73% 56% 38% 24% 13% 7% 3%
CalQuantrill CIN 4.7 70% 51% 34% 20% 11% 5% 2%
DaneDunning LAA 4.7 70% 51% 34% 20% 11% 5% 2%
DrewSmyly PIT 4.6 67% 48% 31% 18% 9% 4% 2%
KyleFreeland SF 4.5 66% 47% 30% 17% 9% 4% 2%
DrewRasmussen DET 4.5 65% 46% 29% 17% 8% 4% 2%
JordanLyles NYY 4.5 65% 46% 29% 16% 8% 4% 2%
MarcoGonzales TOR 4.2 60% 41% 25% 13% 6% 3% 1%
ZackGreinke CHW 4.0 56% 37% 21% 11% 5% 2% 1%
ZachDavies LAD 3.9 55% 36% 20% 10% 5% 2% 1%
MitchKeller CHC 3.9 54% 35% 20% 10% 4% 2% 1%
JordanHicks NYM 3.8 52% 32% 18% 9% 4% 1% 1%
DaultonJefferies MIN 3.6 49% 30% 16% 8% 3% 1% 0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all home run props at FanDuel Sportsbook here.

Batter OppPitcher ProjHR HRProbability xHROdds
JoeyGallo JordanLyles 0.48 28.9% +246
JoseRamirez TylerMahle 0.36 24.3% +312
GiancarloStanton JordanLyles 0.33 22.9% +336
C.J.Cron LoganWebb 0.29 20.9% +378
KyleSchwarber BlakeSnell 0.29 20.9% +378
ShoheiOhtani DaneDunning 0.29 20.9% +378
PeteAlonso JordanHicks 0.29 20.9% +378
BryceHarper BlakeSnell 0.28 20.4% +391
JesusAguilar JosiahGray 0.28 20.4% +391
JesusSanchez JosiahGray 0.28 20.4% +391
GeorgeSpringer MarcoGonzales 0.27 19.8% +404
AaronJudge JordanLyles 0.27 19.8% +404
MattChapman MarcoGonzales 0.27 19.8% +404
RhysHoskins BlakeSnell 0.27 19.8% +404
WillSmith ZachDavies 0.27 19.8% +404
NolanArenado MaxScherzer 0.26 19.3% +418
BrandonDrury CalQuantrill 0.26 19.3% +418
KyleTucker NickPivetta 0.26 19.3% +418
AustinRiley CorbinBurnes 0.26 19.3% +418
YordanAlvarez NickPivetta 0.26 19.3% +418
LuisRobert ZackGreinke 0.26 19.3% +418
BrandonBelt KyleFreeland 0.25 18.7% +434
MikeTrout DaneDunning 0.25 18.7% +434
ByronBuxton DaultonJefferies 0.25 18.7% +434
VladimirGuerreroJr. MarcoGonzales 0.25 18.7% +434
AvisailGarcia JosiahGray 0.24 18.2% +451
JocPederson KyleFreeland 0.24 18.2% +451
WillsonContreras MitchKeller 0.24 18.2% +451
RafaelDevers LuisGarcia 0.24 18.2% +451
PatrickWisdom MitchKeller 0.24 18.2% +451
AnthonyRizzo JordanLyles 0.23 17.6% +469
JoseAltuve NickPivetta 0.23 17.6% +469
DanVogelbach DrewSmyly 0.23 17.6% +469
JaredWalsh DaneDunning 0.23 17.6% +469
FreddieFreeman ZachDavies 0.22 17.0% +490
MikeZunino EduardoRodriguez 0.22 17.0% +490
J.T.Realmuto BlakeSnell 0.22 17.0% +490
EnriqueHernandez LuisGarcia 0.22 17.0% +490
MikeYastrzemski KyleFreeland 0.22 17.0% +490
SalvadorPerez LucasGiolito 0.21 16.3% +512
EugenioSuarez KevinGausman 0.21 16.3% +512
LukeVoit ZackWheeler 0.21 16.3% +512
AdolisGarcia ShoheiOhtani 0.21 16.3% +512
JeanSegura BlakeSnell 0.20 15.7% +536
MaxMuncy ZachDavies 0.20 15.7% +536
JoshBell PabloLopez 0.20 15.7% +536
TeoscarHernandez MarcoGonzales 0.20 15.7% +536
WillyAdames MaxFried 0.20 15.7% +536
RodolfoCastro DrewSmyly 0.20 15.7% +536
MarcusSemien ShoheiOhtani 0.19 15.1% +564
JorgeSoler JosiahGray 0.19 15.1% +564
GioUrshela DaultonJefferies 0.19 15.1% +564
GarySanchez DaultonJefferies 0.19 15.1% +564
ColinMoran CalQuantrill 0.19 15.1% +564
AlexBregman NickPivetta 0.19 15.1% +564
DansbySwanson CorbinBurnes 0.19 15.1% +564
ChasMcCormick NickPivetta 0.19 15.1% +564
GavinSheets ZackGreinke 0.19 15.1% +564
BrandonMarsh DaneDunning 0.19 15.1% +564
JoshDonaldson JordanLyles 0.18 14.4% +594
NickCastellanos BlakeSnell 0.18 14.4% +594
JoseAbreu ZackGreinke 0.18 14.4% +594
MookieBetts ZachDavies 0.18 14.4% +594
JesseWinker KevinGausman 0.18 14.4% +594
YoanMoncada ZackGreinke 0.18 14.4% +594
HunterDozier LucasGiolito 0.18 14.4% +594
HunterRenfroe MaxFried 0.18 14.4% +594
CodyBellinger ZachDavies 0.18 14.4% +594
IanHapp MitchKeller 0.18 14.4% +594
BrianAnderson JosiahGray 0.18 14.4% +594
RonaldAcuna CorbinBurnes 0.18 14.4% +594
JazzChisholm JosiahGray 0.18 14.4% +594
JustinTurner ZachDavies 0.17 13.7% +628
NelsonCruz PabloLopez 0.17 13.7% +628
MannyMachado ZackWheeler 0.17 13.7% +628
RobbieGrossman DrewRasmussen 0.17 13.7% +628
RandalGrichuk LoganWebb 0.17 13.7% +628
JavierBaez DrewRasmussen 0.17 13.7% +628
MaxKepler DaultonJefferies 0.17 13.7% +628
TrevorStory LuisGarcia 0.17 13.7% +628
TylerStephenson CalQuantrill 0.17 13.7% +628
DJLeMahieu JordanLyles 0.16 13.1% +666
EvanLongoria KyleFreeland 0.16 13.1% +666
J.D.Martinez LuisGarcia 0.16 13.1% +666
ChrisTaylor ZachDavies 0.16 13.1% +666
AustinHedges TylerMahle 0.16 13.1% +666
YulieskiGurriel NickPivetta 0.16 13.1% +666
MattOlson CorbinBurnes 0.16 13.1% +666
BrettPhillips EduardoRodriguez 0.16 13.1% +666
TyFrance KevinGausman 0.16 13.1% +666
SeanMurphy SonnyGray 0.16 13.1% +666
CharlieBlackmon LoganWebb 0.15 12.4% +709
EduardoEscobar JordanHicks 0.15 12.4% +709
MikeMoustakas CalQuantrill 0.15 12.4% +709
A.J.Pollock ZackGreinke 0.15 12.4% +709
YasmaniGrandal ZackGreinke 0.15 12.4% +709
MarcellOzuna CorbinBurnes 0.15 12.4% +709
TommyPham CalQuantrill 0.15 12.4% +709
LourdesGurriel MarcoGonzales 0.15 12.4% +709
FrankSchwindel MitchKeller 0.15 12.4% +709
MikeFord KevinGausman 0.15 12.4% +709
BryanReynolds DrewSmyly 0.15 12.4% +709
BrendanRodgers LoganWebb 0.15 12.4% +709
YoshitomoTsutsugo DrewSmyly 0.15 12.4% +709
DaultonVarsho WalkerBuehler 0.15 12.4% +709
Ha-SeongKim ZackWheeler 0.15 12.4% +709
JeremyPena NickPivetta 0.15 12.4% +709
CarlosSantana LucasGiolito 0.14 11.6% +759
BradMiller ShoheiOhtani 0.14 11.6% +759
XanderBogaerts LuisGarcia 0.14 11.6% +759
TommyLaStella KyleFreeland 0.14 11.6% +759
AdamDuvall CorbinBurnes 0.14 11.6% +759
TreaTurner ZachDavies 0.14 11.6% +759
CoreySeager ShoheiOhtani 0.14 11.6% +759
TimAnderson ZackGreinke 0.14 11.6% +759
BenGamel DrewSmyly 0.14 11.6% +759
GarrettCooper JosiahGray 0.14 11.6% +759
AustinHays GerritCole 0.14 11.6% +759
FranmilReyes TylerMahle 0.14 11.6% +759
RamonLaureano SonnyGray 0.14 11.6% +759
SethBrown SonnyGray 0.14 11.6% +759
YadielHernandez PabloLopez 0.14 11.6% +759
AndrewVaughn ZackGreinke 0.14 11.6% +759
GeraldoPerdomo WalkerBuehler 0.14 11.6% +759
AlfonsoRivas MitchKeller 0.14 11.6% +759
BobbyWittJr. LucasGiolito 0.14 11.6% +759
SeiyaSuzuki MitchKeller 0.14 11.6% +759
BrandonCrawford KyleFreeland 0.13 10.9% +816
MiguelCabrera DrewRasmussen 0.13 10.9% +816
PaulGoldschmidt MaxScherzer 0.13 10.9% +816
RobinsonChirinos GerritCole 0.13 10.9% +816
ChristianWalker WalkerBuehler 0.13 10.9% +816
KetelMarte WalkerBuehler 0.13 10.9% +816
AnthonySantander GerritCole 0.13 10.9% +816
BoBichette MarcoGonzales 0.13 10.9% +816
WanderFranco EduardoRodriguez 0.13 10.9% +816
JedLowrie SonnyGray 0.12 10.2% +883
MichaelBrantley NickPivetta 0.12 10.2% +883
KoleCalhoun ShoheiOhtani 0.12 10.2% +883
LeuryGarcia ZackGreinke 0.12 10.2% +883
KoltenWong MaxFried 0.12 10.2% +883
RougnedOdor GerritCole 0.12 10.2% +883
JorgePolanco DaultonJefferies 0.12 10.2% +883
FranciscoLindor JordanHicks 0.12 10.2% +883
AndrewBenintendi LucasGiolito 0.12 10.2% +883
YandyDiaz EduardoRodriguez 0.12 10.2% +883
TylerO'Neill MaxScherzer 0.12 10.2% +883
MichaelPerez DrewSmyly 0.12 10.2% +883
CedricMullins GerritCole 0.12 10.2% +883
TaylorWard DaneDunning 0.12 10.2% +883
ThairoEstrada KyleFreeland 0.12 10.2% +883
RandyArozarena EduardoRodriguez 0.12 10.2% +883
JoeyBart KyleFreeland 0.12 10.2% +883
JonahHeim ShoheiOhtani 0.12 10.2% +883
SpencerTorkelson DrewRasmussen 0.12 10.2% +883
BrendanDonovan MaxScherzer 0.12 10.2% +883
BrysonStott BlakeSnell 0.12 10.2% +883
YadierMolina MaxScherzer 0.11 9.4% +962
CesarHernandez PabloLopez 0.11 9.4% +962
JonathanSchoop DrewRasmussen 0.11 9.4% +962
OdubelHerrera BlakeSnell 0.11 9.4% +962
EliasDiaz LoganWebb 0.11 9.4% +962
TylerNaquin CalQuantrill 0.11 9.4% +962
MattReynolds CalQuantrill 0.11 9.4% +962
AmedRosario TylerMahle 0.11 9.4% +962
RyanMcMahon LoganWebb 0.11 9.4% +962
JuanSoto PabloLopez 0.11 9.4% +962
NathanielLowe ShoheiOhtani 0.11 9.4% +962
MichaelChavis DrewSmyly 0.11 9.4% +962
HaroldRamirez EduardoRodriguez 0.11 9.4% +962
LaMonteWadeJr KyleFreeland 0.11 9.4% +962
SheldonNeuse SonnyGray 0.11 9.4% +962
EliWhite ShoheiOhtani 0.11 9.4% +962
TylerNevin GerritCole 0.11 9.4% +962
TJFriedl CalQuantrill 0.11 9.4% +962
JuanYepez MaxScherzer 0.11 9.4% +962
JoseMiranda DaultonJefferies 0.11 9.4% +962
AlekThomas WalkerBuehler 0.11 9.4% +962
RafaelOrtega MitchKeller 0.10 8.6% +1058
AnthonyRendon DaneDunning 0.10 8.6% +1058
ChristianVazquez LuisGarcia 0.10 8.6% +1058
TreyMancini GerritCole 0.10 8.6% +1058
JacobStallings JosiahGray 0.10 8.6% +1058
TrentGrisham ZackWheeler 0.10 8.6% +1058
WilliCastro DrewRasmussen 0.10 8.6% +1058
LuisBarrera SonnyGray 0.10 8.6% +1058
JackSuwinski DrewSmyly 0.10 8.6% +1058
RoyceLewis DaultonJefferies 0.10 8.6% +1058
AaronHicks JordanLyles 0.09 7.8% +1174
JackieBradley LuisGarcia 0.09 7.8% +1174
MiguelRojas JosiahGray 0.09 7.8% +1174
MaikelFranco PabloLopez 0.09 7.8% +1174
TonyKemp SonnyGray 0.09 7.8% +1174
FranchyCordero LuisGarcia 0.09 7.8% +1174
HarrisonBader MaxScherzer 0.09 7.8% +1174
OzzieAlbies CorbinBurnes 0.09 7.8% +1174
VictorRobles PabloLopez 0.09 7.8% +1174
TomasNido JordanHicks 0.09 7.8% +1174
JoseTrevino JordanLyles 0.09 7.8% +1174
TommyEdman MaxScherzer 0.09 7.8% +1174
PavinSmith WalkerBuehler 0.09 7.8% +1174
VidalBrujan EduardoRodriguez 0.09 7.8% +1174
EricHosmer ZackWheeler 0.08 7.0% +1320
JoseIglesias LoganWebb 0.08 7.0% +1320
LorenzoCain MaxFried 0.08 7.0% +1320
TuckerBarnhart DrewRasmussen 0.08 7.0% +1320
MichaelTaylor LucasGiolito 0.08 7.0% +1320
BradleyZimmer MarcoGonzales 0.08 7.0% +1320
KyleFarmer CalQuantrill 0.08 7.0% +1320
ChadWallach DaneDunning 0.08 7.0% +1320
AlexVerdugo LuisGarcia 0.08 7.0% +1320
LuisUrias MaxFried 0.08 7.0% +1320
RowdyTellez MaxFried 0.08 7.0% +1320
RamonUrias GerritCole 0.08 7.0% +1320
SantiagoEspinal MarcoGonzales 0.08 7.0% +1320
JakeCronenworth ZackWheeler 0.08 7.0% +1320
CristianPache SonnyGray 0.08 7.0% +1320
OwenMiller TylerMahle 0.08 7.0% +1320
JulioRodriguez KevinGausman 0.08 7.0% +1320
MJMelendez LucasGiolito 0.08 7.0% +1320
JuricksonProfar ZackWheeler 0.07 6.2% +1507
JonathanVillar MitchKeller 0.07 6.2% +1507
ChristianYelich MaxFried 0.07 6.2% +1507
DavidPeralta WalkerBuehler 0.07 6.2% +1507
JeimerCandelario DrewRasmussen 0.07 6.2% +1507
DominicSmith JordanHicks 0.07 6.2% +1507
MylesStraw TylerMahle 0.07 6.2% +1507
ConnorJoe LoganWebb 0.07 6.2% +1507
OscarMercado TylerMahle 0.07 6.2% +1507
SamHilliard LoganWebb 0.07 6.2% +1507
GavinLux ZachDavies 0.07 6.2% +1507
AndresGimenez TylerMahle 0.07 6.2% +1507