The Tampa Bay Lightning won't be laying down in their attempt for three straight Stanley Cup wins. Down 3-1, they were able to win in Colorado and force a Game 6.
Now, the Colorado Avalanche are on the road in their attempt to clinch.
Here's what our model likes for tonight's action.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning
Lightning Puckline (+1.5; -275) - 2 stars
Lightning Moneyline (-105) - 1 star
Under 5.5 (+108) - 1 star
Our model is once again projecting a close game with the Lightning 52.6% likely to win, making their puckline (+1.5) valuable even at -275 odds. They're 76.1% likely to cover that puckline, good for a 3.8% expected return. While the return isn't huge, the high probability over 75% is enough to make that a two-unit recommendation (i.e. a two-star option).
The -105 outright win odds come with a 2.8% expected return, and with the odds just better than a coin flip, it's limited to one-star action.
While the Avalanche are sitting at an expected goal differential per 60 minutes of 1.07 in the playoffs and the Lightning are at 0.09, the goalie advantage is there for the Lightning.
Overall, the under is where our model is leaning, as well, but it's only the slightest value (0.70% expected return).
Best Player Props
Based on our projections, these are the best prop values for tonight.