Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Tyreek Hill Any Time Touchdown (+120) and
Tyreek Hill Over 5.5 Receptions (-114)
Thursday Night Football kicks off with the Miami Dolphins visiting the Cincinnati Bengals, where the total is set at 47.5 points.
The offensive expectations are certainly looking strong in this game, and we want to focus on some player props that will reflect that. We start with Tyreek Hill any time touchdown (+120) with great odds, so let's jump in.
Hill is coming off a game where he saw only 4 targets, which is noticeably lower than the first two games when he piled up 12 and 13 targets. He's carrying a 28.7% target share for the Dolphins, which is the second-highest on the team. On top of that, he has a 9.7 average depth of target (aDOT) and a 34.8% air yards market share.
Shocking news: Hill is good. Really good.
To start the year, he has averaged 0.83 Net Expected Points per Target (NEP) and an 85.71% success rate. Getting the ball to Hill has proven to be a good thing for the Dolphins' offense, who have a 22.00 implied team total tonight.
Miami is also carrying a 65.27% pass play percentage, which is the 10th highest in the league. They will continue to lean on the passing game, which would put Hill in a strong spot for consistent production.
Our projections have Hill going for 6.23 receptions tonight, which has him hitting the over on his prop tonight. Add in his high offensive usage and big-play ability, and that should put him in a spot to cash in on his touchdown prop.
Joe Burrow Longest Pass Over 37.5 Yards (-114)
The passing attack for the Bengals should be on full display tonight.
The Bengals are in a spot to have their offense push the ball downfield and put up plenty of points tonight. While the Dolphins are scoring lots of points on offense, their defense is seriously struggling. The Miami pass defense comes in as the fifth-worst per our numbers and the ninth-worst overall.
They are allowing 297.7 passing yards per game from opposing quarterbacks, which is the second-worst in the league. Until something changes, opposing quarterbacks are going to be in a spot to post huge games against them.
When we turn to Joe Burrow, we are specifically looking at his longest pass over 37.5 yards. Through the first three games, the Dolphins have allowed an average long reception of 48 yards to opposing quarterbacks/wide receivers.
Burrow should be able to jump on that weakness from the Dolphins' secondary with the likes of Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd running downfield. Both Higgins and Boyd had aDOTs at 11.0 yards or higher, while Chase isn't too far behind with a 9.2 aDOT.
Burrow is averaging 6.5 yards per attempt this season, which is reasonably lower than the 8.9 yards per attempt he posted last season. Hopefully, Burrow is in for a bit of positive regression to his level from 2021 and will continue to take shots downfield.