Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Jake Fraley To Hit a Home Run (+560)
The Cincinnati Reds have a 4.74 implied run total against the Chicago Cubs, where we see a 10.0 over/under.
The first two games of this series have featured plenty of scoring, and that trend should continue tonight given the types of pitchers on the mound. The Cubbies will start Jameson Taillon, a pitcher who is struggling big time with home runs this season.
Against lefty hitters, Taillon is allowing a .554 SLG, .388 wOBA, 6.03 xFIP, 2.30 HR/9, and 49% fly-ball rate. That type of stat line puts him in a dangerous spot against a powerful Red offense that has plenty of players who can hit the ball deep.
We'll turn to Jake Fraley, who comes in with a 128 wRC+, .373 wOBA, .225 ISO, 40.3% fly-ball rate, and 31.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. All 15 of Fraley's home runs have come via right-handed pitchers, so this is the clear split to target him.
Will Smith To Record an RBI (+100)
As usual, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a big 5.22 implied run total and plenty of potential to exceed that quickly.
The Dodgers will be facing JP Sears, who is struggling big time versus righty hitters this season to the tune of a .423 SLG, 4.87 xFIP, 1.86 HR/9, 57.6% fly-ball rate, and .215 BABIP. For context, the league average BABIP versus right-handed hitters this season is .296. This suggests Sears is due for some big-time negative regression in that department, and the Dodgers' lineup can absolutely get that started tonight.
Will Smith has elite numbers versus lefty pitchers this season with a 152 wRC+, .395 wOBA, .270 ISO, 53% fly-ball rate, and 37% hard-contact rate. It's essentially a perfect match for Smith's hitting profile against what Sears struggles with. Smith should be in his usual spot near the top of the Dodgers' lineup, giving him several chances to knock in a run.