It's the final week of the PGA Tour's regular season before we enter a three-week playoff.
This week, the Tour is heading to Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina for the final tuneup -- or the final chance to qualify for the FedEx Cup Playoffs for those near the cusp.
Let's dig into the course, the key stats, the win simulations, and the best bets of the week.
You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.
Sedgefield Country Club Course Info & Key Stats
Distance: 7,131 (short: ~100 yards shorter than the average par 70)
Fairway Acres/Yardage Ratio: 3.5 (narrow: PGA average is 4.2)
Average Green Size: 6,000 square feet (average: ~100% of the PGA average)
Green Type: Bermuda
Past 5 Winning Scores: -15, -21, -22, -21, -22
Past 5 Cut Lines: -3, -3, -4, -3, -3
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (emphasis on Driving Accuracy), Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermuda, Birdie or Better Rate
Last year, we saw a six-man playoff that led to a win from Kevin Kisner, but other than that, we've recently seen winners go at least 21 under.
Speaking of Kisner, this is one of the shortest and most accuracy-friendly courses on the PGA Tour, given the tight fairways. You also can't afford to miss the fairways too often.
So, we'll want golfers who can gain strokes off the tee but also not rule out golfers who are merely hyper-accurate. What I mean by that is that accurate drivers don't gain a ton of strokes off the tee most weeks, but they should be able to this week.
From there, we'll need irons (it's pretty simple to gain strokes from the fairways, via datagolf) and putting to convert birdie chances. I have a heavy emphasis on strokes gained: approach here based on historical data, and as usual for birdie-friendly setups, it's strokes gained: around the green that we can ignore.
Other than that, we don't need to complicate it.
Golfers With Great Course/Event History
The best strokes gained averages for golfers at Sedgefield Country Club with at least two starts:
- Webb Simpson (+3.02)
- Jim Herman (+2.27)
- Sungjae Im (+2.12)
- Kevin Kisner (+2.10)
- Billy Horschel (+1.95)
- Russell Henley (+1.77)
- Shane Lowry (+1.74)
- Denny McCarthy (+1.69)
- Ryan Armour (+1.56)
- Si Woo Kim (+1.56)
Talk about some fairway finders.
Past winners (at this course) in the field:
- Kevin Kisner (2021)
- Jim Herman (2020)
- J.T. Poston (2019)
- Si Woo Kim (2016)
- Davis Love (2015)
- Camilo Villegas (2014)
- Webb Simpson (2011)
- Ryan Moore (2009)
Again, a lot of fairways hit among that group.
Win Simulations for the Wyndham Championship
Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds this week at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for the Wyndham Championship
All but Mitchell have plenty of accuracy, and in Mitchell's case, he's great off the tee despite average-ish accuracy.
I think Lowry is quite undervalued because of some weak recent putting. Im has three straight top-25 results here. Henley's three career wins all came on bermuda greens.
Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the Wyndham Championship
All stats cited below originate at FantasyNational. Strokes gained data includes stats from the past calendar year and is adjusted based on my field strength and recency tweaks. Putting surface splits also come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds when possible -- unless noted. All ranks and percentile ranks are among the field. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.
Best of the Best
Shane Lowry (FanDuel Salary: $11,800 | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds: +1600 | FedEx Cup Rank: 28th) - Lowry holds a pretty substantial edge over a huge portion of this field over the past six months and the past year with how good he's been lately. He checks all the boxes we're looking for in terms of accuracy, iron play, and putting. Lowry's inside the top 30 in FedEx Cup points, so he doesn't need this week, but every point helps, and it doesn't hurt that the playoff angle is just an added bonus onto the great case for Lowry already.
Webb Simpson ($11,600 | +1500 | 126th) - Webb is dominant at Sedgefield. He won here in 2011 and has 10 total top-11 finishes in 13 starts since 2009. It's a home game for Simpson, who is from Raleigh. And it's not like he is out of form. Simpson is someone I've been monitoring for a while now, and he seems clear of the injuries that held him back earlier in 2022. Simpson had missed two cuts and three of four before getting through last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Simpson's accuracy, iron play, and putting (especially on bermuda greens) make him lethal this week. Simpson also finds himself close to the cutoff in terms of FedEx Cup points, so he'll be looking to make a climb at a spot he knows better than anyone.
Others to Consider:
Sungjae Im ($11,300 | +1500 | 15th) - 6th, 9th, 24th here in three starts; accurate off the tee, too.
Russell Henley ($10,900 | +2400 | 42nd) - Benefits from an accuracy setup; all three career wins on bermuda greens.
Scott Stallings ($10,100 | +4500 | 44th) - Strong irons and putter (especially on bentgrass).
Denny McCarthy($9,800 | +3200 | 40th)- In a week ripe for someone like McCarthy (accurate and one of the best putters on the planet), we have to take a look. McCarthy has finished 36th, 22nd, 9th, and 15th here the past four years for dominant course form, and he qualifies as a bermuda specialist with the flat stick. He really benefits when distance isn't a prerequisite.
Mark Hubbard ($9,200 | +6500 | 86th) - One of the most accurate players with driver and irons, Hubbard is quite the fit for Sedgefield. He has finished 24th, 15th, and 51st at this event over the past five years for some of the best form at the setup. Hubbard also is a great putter with supported underlying data. He's in the 9th percentile in this field in distance but in the 64th percentile in fairways gained, so he gets a big boost.
Others to Consider:
Keith Mitchell ($9,700 | +4800 | 38th) - Putter has improved long-term now, and he makes birdies.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($9,600 | +4500 | 56th) - 78th-percentile accuracy and irons; due for putting regression (98th-percentile expected putting).
Christopher Gotterup ($9,300 | +8000 | N/A) - Not a course fit with his length but a great ball-striker nonetheless.
J.J. Spaun ($8,500 | +10000 | 26th) - Spaun finds himself -- after a win and some solid finishes -- 26th in the FedEx Cup standings and could really stay relevant down the stretch with more good results. Spaun holds 82nd-percentile iron play and 85th-percentile accuracy and birdie numbers. He's a strong value at this number.
Ryan Armour ($7,800 | +16000 | 164th) - Armour will need a strong showing to get inside the top 125 in the FedEx Cup standings. It's a great course for him to do so. Armour has 99th-percentile accuracy and 90th-percentile bermuda putting. Armour has made good on the course fit and has four top-25 results here over the past five years, notably missing the cut last year. He's missed four straight cuts, sure, but he's -- at 46 years old -- going to be a bit of a specialist. Sedgefield is a week for him to shine. There are safer, better plays, but at this number, he opens up a lot for us.
Others to Consider:
Chez Reavie ($9,000 | +6500 | 51st) - The most accurate driver in the field has 83rd-percentile irons; putter is a concern, though.
Cheng-Tsung Pan ($8,900 | +7500 | 94th) - No holes in the game except bermuda putting but four-for-four making cuts here; runner-up in 2018.
Aaron Rai ($8,500 | +8000 | 89th) - Can use some FedEx points; great recent form with an all-around game.