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For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 7.5 (-104)
Astros -1.5 (+112)
Yordan Alvarez to Total 2+ Bases (+110)
Bryce Harper to Record an RBI (+170)
Verlander is likely on his way to an AL Cy Young Award, and he posted a sparkling 3.09 SIERA, 27.8% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate this regular season. Despite mixed results in the playoffs, his underlying numbers have been great, too, as he's recorded a 2.86 SIERA, 27.9% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate over 15 innings.
Syndergaard had a 4.39 SIERA and 16.8% strikeout rate in 2022. He's gone no more than three innings in any of his three playoff appearances during this postseason, so he probably won't be in there long tonight. But for however long he's in there, Houston's bats should be salivating.
The huge edge at starting pitcher is a big reason why I'm backing Houston to cover as a 1.5-run favorite, and I also think the Astros' offense does the heavy lifting to get us to the over. But for as good as Verlander has been, he has some warts, too -- namely a 43.6% fly-ball rate in the regular season -- so the Philadelphia Phillies' offense should churn out some runs, as well. Our model gives this game a 59.7% chance to go over 7.5 runs.
In the prop market, I'm on Yordan Alvarez to total at least two bases (+110). I love this plus-money number for Alvarez. He'll be in a smashing spot with the platoon advantage against Syndergaard. But even if we see that matchup only once, there's not much reason for concern because Alvarez mauled both lefties (.424 wOBA) and righties (.428 wOBA) this year.
I also like Harper to record an RBI (+170). Harper has been out of this world in the playoffs, leading the Phils in wOBA (.500), runs (12), hits (21) and RBI (13). He'll likely be slotted fourth, right behind Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto -- a money spot for RBI chances. And with Verlander's fly-ball ways, Harper might just drive himself in. He's +330 to go yard if that interests you.