numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies Moneyline (-104)
Bryce Harper to Record an RBI (+160)
Jose Altuve to Record a Run (-115)
The Houston Astros got thumped last night, and they have to face Aaron Nola today. The market, though, is showing a lot of confidence in the Astros as Houston is a slim -112 moneyline favorite. But our model leans toward the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Astros are sending Cristian Javier to the bump, and he's a big reason to like the Astros' chances. In the regular season, Javier recorded a 3.14 SIERA and 33.2% strikeout rate. But Javier is also a fly-ball pitcher, and that could get him in trouble tonight at Citizens Bank Park -- especially with how locked in the Phillies' bats are right now.
As for Nola, he's excellent as well, pitching to a 2.80 SIERA, 29.1% strikeout rate and 3.6% walk rate in 2022. After a red-hot patch, he's struggled in two straight starts, permitting 11 earned runs across his previous nine innings, including five earned runs in 4 1/3 frames in Game 1 of this series. But that might mean he's due for a bounce-back effort, and his underlying metrics this postseason -- 2.79 SIERA, 25.0% strikeout rate and 5.4% walk rate -- are still really nice.
No matter which way you slice it, this projects to be a close one. Our model has Philly coming out on top 53.1% of the time, so taking them at their slight underdog price of -104 looks like the way to go.
In the prop market, I want to pick on Javier's fly-ball tendencies and roll the dice on Bryce Harper to record an RBI (+160). Javier isn't quite as dominant against lefties (28.0% strikeout rate in the split) as he is versus right-handers (39.5%). Harper is playing out of his mind in the postseason, mashing his way to a .515 wOBA. He'll be in the heart of the order -- likely fourth -- and should be presented with some RBI chances.
I also like Jose Altuve to score a run (-115). Altuve will be in the leadoff spot for Houston, which is obviously a nice place to be for run production. Following a slow start to the playoffs, Altuve has picked it up with six hits over his past four games.