numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 8.0 (-105)
Yordan Alvarez 2+ Total Bases (+100)
Rhys Hoskins to Hit a Home Run (+390)
Syndergaard, the Philadelphia Phillies' starter, probably won't be long for this game as he hasn't gone more than three innings in any of his three postseason appearances this year. But for however long he's in, it's advantage Houston Astros.
Syndergaard posted a mere 16.8% strikeout rate in the regular season and struggled to a 4.39 SIERA. His strikeout rate in the second half was just 14.6%. He should have a rough go of it against a Houston lineup that is deep and talented.
McCullers definitely gives the Astros the edge in the starting-pitching department, and that's a big reason why the Astros are -130 moneyline favorites. McCullers returned from injury late in the year and recorded a 3.96 SIERA and 25.6% strikeout rate in 47 2/3 innings. He's been good over two playoff starts, as well, giving up three earned runs and punching out 13 over 11 frames.
We project Houston to win by a score of 4.78-4.13. That's 8.91 total runs, and our model has the over cashing 53.5% of the time.
As for props, I'm on Yordan Alvarez to total at least two bases (+100). Alvarez is one of the game's elite bats, and he's excellent against both lefties (.424 wOBA) and righties (.428 wOBA). He'll be in a good spot against Syndergaard, but he'll also be in a good spot no matter who he sees from the Phillies' bullpen. I don't mind his RBI prop (+135), either.
On the Phillies' side, Rhys Hoskins to go deep (+390) has my eye. McCullers showed reverse splits in 2022, giving up 1.13 homers per nine against righties with a 23.8% strikeout rate in the split. Compare that to a 28.1% strikeout rate and 0.38 dingers per nine to left-handers. Hoskins has five jacks in the playoffs and was much better at home this season (.378 wOBA) than he was on the road (.312 wOBA).