Greetings from Chatham, Mass.! I am on vacation this week spending time with my fiance and family on Cape Cod. Unfortunately, there is no VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. But I will still check in all week to report a handful of games receiving sharp action across the market.
Without further ado, let's discuss where the money is flowing for a trio of MLB games tonight.
4:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (78-54) at Seattle Mariners (71-62)
These AL West rivals have split the first two games of the series. Houston won the opener 4-3 as -150 road favorites and then the Mariners bounced back with a 4-0 win on Tuesday as + 145 home dogs. In this afternoon's rubber match, Houston gives the ball to veteran righty Jake Odorizzi (6-6, 4.46 ERA) and Seattle starts young righty Logan Gilbert (5-5, 5.44 ERA). This line opened with the Astros listed as a -125 road favorite and the Mariners a + 115 home dog. Sharps like Houston to win and take the series, steaming the Astros up from -125 to -140. The Astros have dominated their division this season, going 37-17 (68.5%) against AL West opponents. Houston is 9-6 against Seattle. Houston will rely on their bats. The Astros are hitting .268, which ranks 1st in MLB. Seattle is hitting .223, which ranks dead last 30th overall. Respected money has also come in on the under, forcing oddsmakers to drop the total from 9 to 8.5.
7:07 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (76-56) at Los Angeles Angels (66-67)
The Angels have stolen the first two games of this series, winning the opener 8-7 as + 170 home dogs and then winning again yesterday 6-4 as + 175 home dogs. The slumping Yankees have now lost four straight. In tonight's series finale, the Yankees turn to ace righty Gerrit Cole (13-6, 2.80 ERA) and the Angels trot out lefty Packy Naughton (0-0, 1.69 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a hefty -245 road favorite and Los Angeles a + 220 home dog. Sharps aren't afraid of big chalk and like the Yankees to avoid the sweep with their ace on the hill, steaming New York up from -245 to -260. Non-division favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 263-172 (60.5%) this season. Big favorites -200 or more are 200-81 (71.2%). The Yankees are 61-43 as favorites. The Angels are 30-39 as dogs. New York is + 49 in run differential. Los Angeles is -61. The over is 2-0 this series. Today's total is 8.5 with some books juicing up the over at -115. The forecast calls for mid-70s with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center, ideal hitting conditions.
7:10 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (75-59) at Tampa Bay Rays (84-48)
The Rays are 2-0 so far this series, winning the opener 6-1 as -140 home favorites and winning again on Tuesday 8-5 as -155 home favorites. Boston has now lost three straight while Tampa Bay has now won nine straight. In tonight's rematch, the Red Sox call on ace lefty Chris Sale (3-0, 2.35 ERA) and the Rays counter with righty Drew Rasmussen (1-0, 3.09 ERA). This line opened with Boston listed as a -140 road favorite and Tampa Bay a + 130 home dog. The public is all over Boston with their ace on the mound laying a short chalk number. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the Red Sox fall from -140 to -115. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the red-hot Rays getting plus money at home (+ 130 to + 105). Teams coming off a win receiving 15-cents of steam or more are 225-152 (59.7%). The Rays have value as a short contrarian divisional dog with a line move in their favor. The Red Sox have COVID issues and will be without star shortstop Xander Bogaerts due to a positive test. Sharps also seem to be eyeing a lower scoring game, as we've seen the total fall from 8 to 7.5 behind smart under money.