Premier League Betting Guide: Matchweek 38

The Premier League campaign is down to the final day, with all 10 matches taking place at 11:30 a.m. EST on Sunday.

Which EPL soccer lines offer value this week on FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see where we can zero in.

Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers.

Wolves at Arsenal

Arsenal First-Half Moneyline (-130)
Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals (+128)

Arsenal have limped home this season, and it's difficult to trust them right now. But don't let that overshadow how massive of a gap there's been between Arsenal and Wolves this campaign.

Per FBRef's expected goals (xG) model, the Gunners are third in the EPL in xG differential with a mark of +27.6. Wolves, meanwhile, are 16th with an xG differential of -20.7.

The Gunners' main issue down the stretch has been defense. That's something Wolves aren't equipped to take advantage of as they are next to last in xG generated, tallying just 36.4 xG in 37 matches. They've packed almost no punch away from home, either, registering 15.3 xG from 18 road matches.

Arsenal should be able to dominate possession and create plenty of chances. With how disappointing the Gunners have been recently, I think Arsenal fly out of the gates on Sunday in an effort to wash the bad taste from their mouths and end their season -- one that's been overwhelmingly positive, for the most part -- on a good note.

I want to back Arsenal, but I'm going to pass on their -290 full-time moneyline. Instead, I'm taking the Gunners to go over 2.5 goals (+128) and to win the first half (-130).

Fulham at Manchester United

Fulham and Draw (+145)

I think there are a few reasons to back Fulham to get at least a draw Sunday at Old Trafford.

For starters, the Cottagers will have a significant rest advantage over United. Fulham's most recent match was last Saturday. Manchester United just played on Thursday. That's no small matter.

There's also the motivation factor. While neither side has anything to play for, this match is the first chance for United to let its foot off the gas after clinching a top-four spot in said Thursday match. Solidly mid-table, Fulham haven't had much to play for in a little while, and they've still been pretty good, taking seven points from a possible nine over their last three matches.

Lastly, Fulham have given United a fight in their two meetings this season, once in the league and once in the FA Cup semifinals. In the league, United scored a 96th-minute winner to win 2-1 at Craven Cottage. In the FA Cup, Fulham was leading 1-0 after 70 minutes at Old Trafford before a chaotic 72nd minute that saw two Fulham players receive red cards. That resulted in United playing with a two-man advantage over the final 15 minutes and pouring in three goals to win 3-1.

Fulham are obviously a sizable underdog at Old Trafford, but I think they have a better chance to get at least a point than this +145 price implies. I'll be on Fulham in the double-chance market.

Player Props

Bukayo Saka to Score or Assist (-150): I want to get this out of the way first -- with this being the last matchweek of the year and very few teams having anything to play for, we could see some funky starting lineups. As such, I won't place any of these prop bets until I see the player in the starting lineup. If Saka starts, I loooove him to score or assist at this -150 price. Above, I wrote up why I'm into Arsenal this weekend. This prop correlates with that. If Arsenal put three past Wolves, Saka likely gets in on the fun with a goal or assist. He's their first-choice penalty taker and has 24 goals plus assists in 34 EPL starts.

Demarai Gray to Score or Assist (-115): I'm backing Gray with the assumption Dominic Calvert-Lewin is out due to injury. If DCL starts, I'd prefer him to score or assist (-135). Everton are safe with a win. If they draw or lose, the Toffees open the door to possible relegation, so they have every reason to go for all three points in their home bout with Bournemouth. It's a great spot for Everton as the Cherries are dead last in the EPL in xG differential (-24.7). Goodison should be rocking, and Gray will likely be on penalties if Calvert-Lewin isn't on the pitch. Gray has tallied four shots and five shot-creating actions across his last two matches.