Which EPL soccer lines offer value this week on FanDuel Sportsbook?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers.
West Ham vs. Chelsea
West Ham to win +240
This is an interesting matchup as both teams have been disappointing this season. Chelsea are just 8W-6D-7L only good enough for 9th place in the league, while West Ham are battling for relegation at 5-4-12 and are currently in 17th place.
However, if we look at FBref’s expected goal difference (xGD) we can see that West Ham have been perhaps the most unlucky team in the league this season with a +3.3 xGD (8th best in the league). On the flip side, Chelsea have perhaps been slightly lucky, as their xGD of -1.9 ranks below the Hammers as 10th best in the league.
Of course, xGD is not a tell all metric but the disparity between West Ham’s xGD and their actual results is quite drastic. The Hammers also will have home field advantage, which could prove huge as they are 4-1-5 at home this season compared to Chelsea’s 3-3-5 away record. West Ham will also be the more desperate side as they are battling relegation and they should have a great chance to win this game.
Crystal Palace vs. Brighton
Brighton to win +100
Brighton are having a spectacular season, as they are in 6th place with games in hand on the teams ahead of them in the table. They have a chance for a top 4 finish and a truly special season and their xGD of +6.2 is tied for 5th best in the league.
They face a tricky away match against an always pesky Crystal Palace team, but Palace are only 6-6-9 this season with a -10.0 xGD, which ranks 18th in the EPL. They’re a mediocre team at home at 4-3-4, while Brighton are actually quite good away from home at 5-2-3. Brighton have also gone 3-1-0 in their last 4 and are in good form and they will be looking for the full 3 points to keep their momentum going.
Fulham vs. Nottingham Forest
Draw +250
Nottingham Forest to win +320
Fulham are having a strong season and are currently in 8th place but Forest are no slouch this year, trailing Fulham by 8 points but with a game in hand. Expected goal difference suggests there is not much separating the two sides, as Fulham are at -7.7 xGD compared to -7.9 for Forest.
Forest are in much better form than Fulham, going 3-1-0 in their last 4 games, while Fulham are 0-1-2 in their last 3. Fulham have proven themselves to be the slightly better side throughout the course of the season but there may not be as large of a gap between these two sides as the table would indicate. Forest should have a great chance to at least draw in this game and splitting the bet between draw and Forest win still provides favorable odds.