Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the BMW Championship based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their golf betting odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook.
The penultimate event of the PGA season visits a mostly unknown course -- the Wilmington Country Club. It's a long course at 7,534 yards, so power off the tee is a must for our card this week. With just 69 of the top players in the world vying for a trip to East Lake, we have plenty of top options to choose from.
With so much talent at the top of the market, it's hard to justify too much investment in long shots this week.
For more info on the South Course at Wilmington Country Club along with this week's key stats and Brandon Gdula's win simulations, check out his article.
At The Top
Rory McIlroy (+1000) - McIlroy checks the driving box with room to spare, ranking second on Tour this season in average driving distance. He's been on the cusp a few times this season, and if a few shots had fallen differently, he could have had an iconic season in what is already a Hall of Fame career. He finished top 10 in all four majors and won twice, but those wins came at lower-end events in THE CJ CUP and the Canadian Open. Rory having a strong close to the season is the only way to avoid it feeling like it was all empty calories.
Scottie Scheffler (+1600) - Scheffler had banked arguably one of the most accomplished non-Tiger Woods seasons in PGA Tour history by July 4, but since then, he's had just a missed cut at the Genesis Scottish Open, a T21 at The Open Championship, and another missed cut last week in Memphis. And for all his efforts, he now trails Will Zalatoris (+1400) in the FedEx Cup Standings. Scheffler has been fantastic all season and deserves to be the last man standing. With plenty of power off the tee and terrific iron play in his bag, he fits the bill for Wilmington Country Club.
Joaquin Niemann (+3400) - Niemann started the season well with a win at Riviera but managed just one more top 10 the rest of the way, a T3 at the Memorial. Those are still two big-time results for a young player, and T13 last week could be the signal that he's back on track. The ball-striking is here to stay. He ranked 16th in strokes gained: off the tee and 23rd in strokes gained: approach this season. Save for one week, Niemann has been in the top 20 in the Official World Golf Ranking since winning the Genesis, a testament to his newfound consistency even when the putter is not cooperating. A solid finish this week would put him on track for the high starting position he'll need if he has any shot at the TOUR Championship.
Corey Conners (+4500) - Conners has had a frustrating season -- consistent enough to bank top-30 finishes in 14 of his 23 events but lacking the high-end spike finishes. He was top 10 in just two stroke-play events: The Masters and the Canadian Open. That Scheffler and McIlroy were the winners at those events signals that Conners shows best where his ball-striking can shine brightest, and we think Wilmington fits the bill. He was 4th in strokes gained: off the tee and 21st in strokes gained: approach this season but outside the top 100 in both strokes gained: around the green and strokes gained: putting. He's right on the cusp of back-to-back trips to East Lake for the first time in his career, and I like him to stay steady for at least a Top 20 Finish (+140).
Seamus Power (+10000) - Power started the season strongly and ultimately ended with a successful but inconsistent year. He played 25 events and made 15 cuts but finished inside the top 25 in 13 of them. Three of his four stroke-play top 10s came in February or earlier, and the fourth was his most impressive result of the season -- a T9 at the PGA Championship. Consecutive missed cuts at The Open Championship and the Fed-Ex St. Jude in his last two outings are not ideal, but at 100/1 in a short field, Power is one of the few long shots worth a stab this week.