Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Wyndham Championship based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their golf betting odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook.
The PGA Tour's regular-season finale tees off in North Carolina this week, with a weak field of golfers either tuning up for the FedEx Cup Playoffs or trying to earn enough to make their way in. Sedgefield Country Club makes for an interesting venue to close the season, as it is one of just a few courses that cater not to the most powerful players but to the most precise.
Ballstriking is still important but we can rule out some of the wild big hitters we targeted the last few weeks. Accuracy off the tee is essential given how narrow the fairways are, and we frequently see good putters tame these bermuda greens. Besides a familiar name at the top of the market and one midrange play, we're focusing our card on long shots this week at a course that is open to a wider field than most.
For more info on Sedgefield Country Club along with this week's key stats and Brandon Gdula's win simulations, check out his article.
At The Top
Webb Simpson (+2100) - Simpson is the standard-bearer here, having won in 2011 and far and away the best record of anyone in the field. He's played here every year since 2010, finishing 8th, 1st, 22nd, 11th, 5th, 6th, 72nd, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, and 7th, with the latter being one shot shy of last year's 6-man playoff.
Simpson is a North Carolina native who played at Wake Forest in college, and he even named his daughter Wyndham. Webb is an annual staple in the betting preview, and no exception this year despite some poor form this season. He's priced up in the finishing position markets, but we'll still back him as the co-favorite for a Top 10 Finish (+190).
Brian Harman (+3100) - Harman shined at The Open Championship, firing a final round 66 to finish in a tie for sixth. He bracketed a missed cut in Scotland with a T8 at the Travelers Championship, giving him his fourth and fifth top-10 finishes of the season. He's been up and down in his history at Sedgefield, with T3 in 2013, T6 in 2019, and T27 in 2020, being his only made cuts in nine trips.
But, decent form leading in puts Harman in play this week, and solid accuracy stats including 14th on Tour in driving accuracy reinforce the fit. Since he's won just twice in his PGA Tour we'll hedge our outright with a nice price on a Top 10 Finish (+360).
Chez Reavie (+6500) - Reavie won the Barracuda opposite The Open a few weeks back, and like Harman, he was T8 at TPC River Highlands with a card of 67-69-66-67 on the week. Something has clicked since May when he booked solid finishes at the Mexico Open and the Wells Fargo Championship.
He's third on the Tour in driving accuracy this season and is a staple in the top 10 year in, and year out. He's also solid with his irons, ranking 47th in strokes gained: approach. He's not quite the putter we'd like to target, but he is capable of spike weeks. At 51st in the FedEx Cup Standings, he needs a strong finish to keep himself in play for the second event and hopefully the guaranteed payday at the TOUR Championship.
Brendon Todd (+7500) - Another stalwart in accuracy stats, Todd actually is a good putter and in fact ranks first on the entire Tour in strokes gained: putting this season. He's managed seven top-25 finishes this season, and he was 10th here last year. Todd also grew up in North Carolina, moving there with his family at age 11 and playing with Simpson throughout their youth.
While secure for the first round of the Playoffs, a solid finish should lock him into the BMW Championship field, and a win may be enough to secure his spot in the TOUR Championship. We're a long way from those events, but Todd has a lot more money at stake than just this week's purse.
Joel Dahmen (+8500) - A T10 finish at the U.S. Open should have vaulted Dahmen into the close of the season, but he's stumbled to a 69th and consecutive cuts since then. His last six rounds are all in the 70s, but a course and conditions that play to his strengths should turn the tide.
Dahmen is 16th in driving accuracy this season, a feature that likely hasn't helped him all that much at the Scottish Open or the Rocket Mortgage Classic. But it will here, and he's gotten off to a strong start in each of his three appearances here, with first rounds of 67, 65, and 68. That puts him on the radar for Leader After Round 1 (+7500).
Tyler Duncan (+14000) - Duncan outdueled Simpson at another of Webb's favorite events, the RSM Classic, in 2019 for his lone professional win. He's played well at narrow courses this year, including Colonial and Harbour Town. He's 10th in driving accuracy this season, and as a long shot dart, Duncan is worth a stab at this price.