Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. However, finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they select a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
Two-time defending champion Viktor Hovland headlines the field along with two other top-10 players, and any of the three makes for a nice fit at El Camaleon. Ball-striking is going to be key, and for once, we'll lean a bit more on accuracy than distance. The course is just over 7,000 yards to its par 71, with just one par 3 longer than 155 yards and one par 4 longer than 465 yards. It's no surprise the winner has cracked 20-under par in each of the last four editions and has been at least 17-under in each of the last nine.
So we'll need birdie-makers first and foremost, with a lean toward accuracy and approach play as a theme throughout our card.
For more info on El Camaleon Golf Course at Mayakoba, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out Brandon Gdula's article.
At the Top
Collin Morikawa (+1500) - Morikawa has had the better of Hovland throughout their parallel careers thus far, and in his debut at El Camaleon, he'll look to unseat his rival. Morikawa is routinely among the most accurate of the elite players in the world, ranking 29th last season and 10th the year before across the entire Tour. The approach play is always elite, and the putter a major weakness. We've seen poor short games erased on these paspalum surfaces (hi, Viktor!), and backing the man most likely to keep it in the fairway and plant birdie opportunities on easy greens makes Morikawa an easy choice at 15/1.
Tom Hoge (+2900) - Hoge has played great this fall, with four showings in the top 15 and ranking 3rd on Tour in strokes gained: approach so far this season. That's no fluke, as he was 11th in that regard last season. His accuracy stats are fine -- above average but not elite -- which is enough when the iron play is so good. Hoge's become a reliable performer in weaker fields, and his consistency (along with a few LIV departures) has propelled him to 33rd in the Official World Golf Ranking, up almost 100 spots from this time last year. A T3 two years ago is his lone positive at Mayakoba, but he is on the ascent and playing well enough to earn his second PGA Tour win.
Emiliano Grillo (+2900) - Grillo is one of the most consistent ball-strikers who never seems to seal the deal. He's played a ton this fall and finished inside the top five twice, at the Sanderson Farms Championship and the ZOZO Championship. Like Morikawa, the flat stick is Grillo's nemesis, though, in fairness, he's seen improvement from his Tour-worst 2019-20 season. The similarities end there, with Morikawa and Hoge far more consistent than Grillo on a week-to-week basis. But he always makes the trip to El Camaleon, finishing MC, 8th, 41st, 15th, 9th, and 10th over the past six years. This could be the weak for the Argentine, but a safer bet is probably for a Top-10 Finish (+350).
Russell Henley (+4100) - At different times in his career, Henley was among the very best putters in the world and among the best iron players in the world. Over that period, he's consistently been accurate off the tee, ranking 30th or better on Tour in each of the last five seasons and never outside the top third in his career. He's gotten off to a slow start this season, missing the cut in Mississippi and finishing T45 in a short field at THE CJ CUP, but the number here is too big in a field lacking high-end ball-strikers. Getting the second-ranked approach player from last season at 41/1 is too good to pass up.
Joel Dahmen (+5500) - This is a short-ish number for Dahmen but with good reason, as he's a winner on paspalum at Corales and is generally an accurate driver. He's 11th in strokes gained: tee to green but within site of dead last in putting, and a switch in surfaces could be just what he needs. He's another stalwart at Mayakoba, finishing 45th, 20th, 6th, 41st, and 23rd here in his career. Just once in the last four seasons was he worse than 30th in driving accuracy, and for all his efforts, Dahmen knows his best shots to win are in these weaker fields. The putter is so bad he's due for regression to his mean, and if the pendulum swings right away, he could sprint out to a lead and cash a ticket for Leader After Round 1 (+6500).