Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Wells Fargo Championship based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook.
The Wells Fargo Championship shuttles north from its usual host Quail Hollow Club for the second time in the last six years, this time to TPC Potomac in Potomac, Maryland. The Presidents Cup pulls rank this year, and we instead see the field take on the site of the erstwhile Quicken Loans National.
With just two professional events in its history and the Tour having seen an explosion of young talent since it last hosted in 2018, we can glean very little from mining records at TPC Potomac. The winning score in 2017 was just 7-under, while a score that was bested by 12 players the next year and crushed by the (at the time) white-hot Francesco Molinari to the tune of 21-under. It played far softer in its second year, and we really have no way to know what to expect this week.
In that vein, we'll keep it simple and rely on ballstriking and specifically approach play as we build out our card.
For more info on TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm along with key stats and win simulations, check out Brandon Gdula's article.
At the Top
Corey Conners (+1700) - With one of the sweetest swings on Tour and a couple of years of consistent performance, Conners fits the profile of a breakout candidate to earn his second PGA Tour win this week. He ranks 33rd in strokes gained: approach so far this season, but with season-long finishes of 9th, 12th, and 9th the last three years we are perfectly fine projecting improvement from Conners the rest of the season.
He followed up a 6th place finish at The Masters with a 12th at the RBC Heritage, and while we'd love a bigger number for him Conners is the best fit for this course at the top of the market.
Russell Henley (+3200) - Henley is in a familiar spot at the top of the strokes gained: approach rankings this season. He led the Tour through much of the first half of the season last year as well before settling in to finish sixth. Before losing 4.0 strokes on the greens in an uncharacteristically poor putting performance at Harbour Town, Henley had made the weekend in every event since The Open Championship last July.
He's had a couple of brutally close calls in that span, most notably crumbling in the final round at the Wyndham Championship and losing in a playoff after clearing the rest of the field by four strokes at the Sony Open. Like Conners, he's played well enough over the last three years to win but hasn't quite gotten over the hump. We'll happily back him at this number in a diluted field.
Paul Casey (+4100) - We are tempted with an inflated line due to Casey's recent injury woes that led him to punt the Match Play and withdraw from The Masters. Another couple of weeks off and at a course that prizes iron play, Casey is worth a flyer at 41/1. He's consistently among the top of the board in strokes gained: approach, ranking in the top 15 on Tour each of the past eight seasons.
A limited schedule has him ineligible so far this year, but he was marvelous at THE PLAYERS, where he gained 7.1 strokes on approaches on his way to a 3rd place finish. The health risk filters down to some other markets, and we can't pass up a Top 30 Finish (+160). The market is offering us a great value even if we have to face the risk that we could be tweeting out a burning money gif by lunchtime on Thursday.
David Lipsky (+9000) - Lipsky has shown out at new courses twice now, finishing sixth last week at the Mexico Open and fourth last year at the Palmetto Championship. He was absolute fire with his irons at Vidanta gaining 10 strokes on approach according to stats from Fantasy National Golf Club.
We'll buy at this price, coming off a Sunday 64 that was overshadowed by 63's from fellow top-10 finishers Tony Finau (+2100) and Brandon Wu (+7000). Lipsky is far from a household name, but good iron play, good recent form, and a track record on courses he's never seen before are intriguing enough to get us in at 90/1, with decent value for a Top 10 Finish (+850).
Doc Redman (+15000) - The former U.S. Amateur champion has always done his best work on courses that we'd charitably rank as "below average" as far as the PGA Tour goes. Redman was runner up at the inaugural Rocket Mortgage Championship, when Detroit Golf Club was overpowered to the point that more than 40 golfers reach 10-under or better.
He was second again at the Palmetto Championship, and even if the recent form is hard to look at we know Redman is capable of a high finish seemingly out of nowhere if the course is a fit.