Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Waste Management Phoenix Open based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook.
This year's annual party trip to Scottsdale comes with a premium field, surely among the strongest ever to tee it up at this event. Six of the top-10 golfers in the world and 15 of the top-20 are on site, and the top of the market is fairly clustered. As we see at major championships and strong regular events like the Memorial Tournament and the Genesis Invitational, the leaderboard will be filled with some of these top names and only a couple of outsiders.
We'll be a bit more top-heavy than normal, focusing on quality all-around play. The overseeded bermudagrass greens at TPC Scottsdale can tick up to play as some of the fastest on Tour, which combined with the loaded field gives this week something close to a major championship feel.
For more info on TPC Scottsdale, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Jon Rahm (+750) - Rahm's U.S. Open victory last summer is somehow his only win in almost 18 months, a stretch in which he's been quite clearly the best player in the world. To be fair, he likely would have closed out the Memorial were it not for a COVID-induced withdrawal, and he notched the best 72-hole score at the TOUR Championship. The consistency has been remarkable for Rahm, with 13 top-10s in 2020 and already a 2nd place and a 3rd place in two tournaments in 2021. He is putting himself in a position to contend week in and week out, and when he wins, he'll do so in bunches. The breakthrough is as likely to come here as anywhere. Rahm attended college at nearby Arizona State and finished T5 in 2015 as an amateur, and in the last five years, he's finished inside the top-20 every time.
Xander Schauffele (+2000) - Like Rahm, Schauffele has been a bit unlucky not to have won more over the past couple of years, and in fact, aside from the Olympics, he has not won since the Sentry Tournament of Champions three years ago. He's long overdue for some hardware as an incredibly consistent and well-rounded golfer. His record at this event rivals Rahm's, with a runner-up last year being his best result after finishes of T16, T10, and T17 the three years prior.
Sam Burns (+3400) - Burns has ascended to be fairly considered among the very best golfers in the world, but some of the bigger names still eclipse his odds this week and make him a terrific value at 34/1. He was great in the fall but has struggled in both starts this year, losing 1.3 and 3.5 strokes on approaches at the Tournament of Champions and the Farmers Insurance Open, respectively. Iron play has been the biggest difference for Burns over the past 15 months, as he's become a reliable approach player in addition to his always strong driving and putting. The last time he was that bad with his irons was the TOUR Championship, and he came out a few weeks later and won in his very next start. We're banking on a similar bounce back this week.
Adam Scott (+5000) - Another good driver, Scott checks the ball-striking boxes this week and has flashed some good form over the past few months. He posted top-fives at the Wyndham Championship and THE CJ CUP, and while it's been a while since we've seen him in PGA Tour action, he is coming off consecutive top-10s on the DP World Tour. He won early in the season on West Coast tracks in both 2019 and 2020, and as it often does, the result may come down to a good putting week. He's a good bet for a Top-10 Finish (+550).
Gary Woodland (+9000) - A staple in the Phoenix field, Woodland won here in 2018 thanks to a great all-around effort that saw 11.7 strokes gained tee to green and 3.4 gained putting. The form has been spotty since winning the U.S. Open almost two and a half years ago, but a familiar track will be a huge confidence booster for Woodland. If he's going to return to his best golf this season, he needs to get his game right at TPC Scottsdale.
Brendan Steele (+12000) - Our biggest odds belong to Steele, who has four top-10s at this event over his career. The last of those came in 2018, and since then, he's missed two cuts and finished 30, but we still like Steele as a golfer who plays certain tracks well consistently. TPC Scottsdale is one of those tracks, and if Steele can find the magic again, he'll pay off nicely for a Top-10 Finish (+1900).