Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Mexico Open at Vidanta based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook.
The PGA Tour heads down to Mexico for a new event here in the lull between The Masters and the PGA Championship.
We can learn just about nothing from prior events held in our southern neighbor, as El Camaleon is about as far away on the opposite side of the country, edging the Gulf of Mexico, while Vidanta borders the Pacific Ocean. Also unhelpful is Club de Chapultepec, just outside Mexico City and in the heart of the mainland.
But largely, we are left with a course that is plainly a great unknown and a field to match. Aside from paspalum grass and potentially windy conditions, which are also features at Caribbean courses, we don't have much to inform our decisions.
We'll use performance at weak or easy events and driving skill to see who might be able to make a splash at Vidanta. Jon Rahm is here to lead the way as a massive favorite (+450), but that is a prohibitive number, and our card will consist mainly of some well-intentioned dart throws.
For more info on Vidanta Villarta along with this week's key stats and Brandon Gdula's win simulations, check out his article.
At the Top
Aaron Wise (+3200) - Some good form in the swing season has fallen off in 2022, but some recent signs of home include six straight events positive off the tee and finishes of T21 and T17 in two of his last four. Not exactly world-beating stuff, but this is where we are this week! Wise has some pedigree as a PGA Tour winner at an overmatched course in Trinity Forest, a victory that helped him secure PGA Rookie of the Year honors. He drives it well and is 24th in strokes gained: off the tee this year.
Cameron Champ (+3600) - Our old buddy showed up at The Masters and posted a T10 finish that probably cut his odds for this event in half. It was his first time inside the top 25 since his July win at the 3M Open, and in our begrudging minds, the books have smartly cut his price substantially. We have to think even fringe PGA Tour pros will make short work of a new track like Vidanta, and Champ is the power-driving king of chopping up resort courses. His three PGA Tour wins have come at easy courses in weak fields, and even at 36/1, he has to be considered.
Alex Smalley (+9000) - A runner-up finish in Punta Cana (paspalum!) is the key pointer for Smalley, who also posted some good finishes in the weaker fall fields, specifically T15 at the Houston Open and T12 at the Bermuda Championship. He could just really like the Corales Championship, as he finished 22nd and 14th in his two other tries, but even a hint of some comfort on a different kind of grass type is worth backing at 90/1. Smalley can bomb it with the big boys, ranking 44th in driving distance and 52nd in strokes gained: off the tee on Tour this season.
Joseph Bramlett (+12000) - Bramlett is even better with the driver, ranking 6th in distance and 33rd in strokes gained: off the tee. His ball-striking hasn't yet translated into high finishes, with a T20 at the Sony Open his best result of the year so far. He does have intriguing form in weak/alternate fields and "easy" courses. His best finishes on Tour have come at the AT&T Byron Nelson last May (7th), the Puerto Rico Open in 2020 (9th), the Barbasol Championship last year (11th), and the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship (13th).
Kelly Kraft (+50000) - The dart of all darts, Kraft is worth a tiny investment this week and some potential love as a Top 5 Finish (+4100). Kraft twice achieved that result at the Corales, in 2018 and 2019, along with a respectable 14th in 2020. He of course missed the cut the last two years, so nothing gold can stay I guess. Still, windy coastal conditions and paspalum grass are worth a flyer way down the board. He's also finished top five at the Greenbrier twice, and The Old White TPC was not exactly known for attracting top-tier talent. Kraft is a fun name to monitor this week, and if Corales turns out to be a decent guide, our card could have a few bites at the apple this week.