Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Corales Puntacana Championship based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook.
With the big names on Tour in Austin for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, an alternate field takes on the Corales Puntacana Championship. The field features a few known PGA Tour names, some recent Korn Ferry grads, a few current Korn Ferry invitees, and a slew of international players on the outside of the world's top 70 or so invited to Match Play.
What we have here is a dearth of true value, featuring golfers frequently seen far longer than 100/1 at a fraction of that price. But we can still identify some best in form and key in on a few golfers that have high end talent compared to the rest of this field. That starts with ballstriking and specifically off the tee play, which will be our key focus for our card. No one in this field is trustworthy at shorter than 30/1, so while we agree that big hitter Jhonattan Vegas (+1600) is rightly situated at the top of the field, we won't be touching that price.
For more info on Corales Puntacana Resort & Club along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out Brandon Gdula's course notes.
Patrick Rodgers (+3300) - A good driving profile and some good form in recent alternate events draw the eye toward Rodgers. He was fourth at the Bermuda Championship and fifth at the Barbasol Championship last year, and he gained 4.1 strokes off the tee in the latter. He ranks 38th on Tour in driving distance and has a couple of decent finishes at this event with a 22nd in 2018 and 11th in 2020. He's a classic "quaduple A" player who can't quite hang on the big stage but has a major talent advantage in a field like this.
Hudson Swafford (+4500) - Swafford jumps off the board at this number. Forget four missed cuts in his last five at some of the toughest events of the season, and focus on the fact that this man is a PGA Tour winner this season and a former champion here at Corales. He hoisted the trophy at The American Express in January for the second time in his career, and he can absolutely follow that trend this week. He's another good driver who outclasses this field, Swafford should be closer to the market leaders. We'll jump on a Top-10 Finish (+500) as well.
Wyndham Clark (+5000) - Clark is a top-10 driver by average distance, and his inaccuracy won't kill him this week like it does most weeks on the PGA Tour. He doesn't always make these alternate field appearances, but when he does, he makes the most of the opportunities to flex. He was runner up at the Bermuda Championship in November 2020 and 10th at the Puerto Rico Open in February 2019. This week will be his first trip to Corales, but each of those finishes was also his debut at those courses.
Hayden Buckley (+6000) - Buckley has run into a buzz saw since the PGA Tour season picked up steam, but he was racking up solid finishes in the summer and fall on both Korn Ferry and PGA Tours. He wrapped up his Korn Ferry career with three top 10s in his final five events. Then, he started his PGA season with a missed cut at the Fortinet Championship and then fourth and eighth-place finishes at the Sanderson Farms Championship and the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open.
A T12 at the Sony Open is the last time he's finished better than 49th, but Buckley is a solid driver and has gained off the tee in all but two of his measured events on the PGA Tour. That strength is an even bigger advantage over the field this week, and he's also enticing for a Top 10 Finish (+650).
Paul Barjon (+12000) - Barjon was in the hunt over the weekend at The American Express, firing rounds of 66, 67, and 65 before a Sunday 73 sent him tumbling to a 10th-place finish. We believe in his driving, and even as he's failed to make much of a push beyond that one good week, he's still gained strokes off the tee in 9 of his 12 PGA starts. Barjon has also gone hot and cold with the putter; he's both gained and lost 2.0 strokes or more four times in either direction over those 12 starts -- including each of his last two. Good driving ability with a high variance short game makes him a fine flyer this week.