Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. However, finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they select a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
The PGA Tour brings a rather weak field to Port Royal Golf Club this week, with just one player in the top 50 of the Official World Golf Ranking. A field that features a combination of lower-tier regulars, part-timers, and recent Korn Ferry grads ratchets up the uncertainty anyway, and Port Royal has seen some crazy wind over prior editions.
To find some stability, we'll key in on total strokes gained and strokes gained: tee to green as broad stats here to boil our picks down to talent over the field. Where available, we'll use stats from last season for the PGA Tour, Korn Ferry Tour, and DP World Tour, as well as the rolling True Strokes Gained from datagolf.
For more info on Port Royal Golf Club, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out Brandon Gdula's article.
At the Top
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Value Spots
Russell Knox (+2900) - Knox has made the trip to Bermuda each of the last three years, finishing T11, T16, and T12 from 2019-2021. He's held his own tee to green even as his profile has dimmed considerably, and for last season, he still ranked 42nd on Tour in strokes gained: tee to green. He started the season with back-to-back top-25s, and the Scot has struck it well early on approaches this year. Drivers will be mitigated due to course elevation and gusty conditions, and that club has been Knox's Achilles' heel. Controlling the ball into the green in wind could be the difference this week, and Knox fits that bill.
Greyson Sigg (+4000) - One of the most promising Korn Ferry grads last year, Sigg had a rocky rookie season. He played quite a bit and could not quite break through at a full-field event. His best results were in weak events similar to this one -- T7 at the 3M Open, T16 at the John Deere Classic, T22 at the Bermuda Championship, and T25s at the American Express and the Corales Puntacana Championship. Against the KFT in 2020 and 2021, Sigg was a top-10 machine and won twice in 2021. His PGA breakthrough is going to have to come in a scenario like this one where he actually has a talent advantage and confidence as a former winner against fields of this caliber.
Long Shots
Tyler Duncan (+6500) - Duncan was T18 here in 2019 and would go on to win two starts later. He'd missed three cuts in his first four events before Bermuda that fall, so consecutive missed cuts and a 72nd to his name so far this season are of little concern. He finished 45th in strokes gained: tee to green last season, gaining in all three facets. Even still, he has failed to crack the top 10 in any event since his win at RSM Classic now three years in the rearview. But his having contended ever on Tour, let alone won, stands out among golfers priced longer than 50/1.
Matthias Schmid (+10000) - The 24-year-old German was the Rookie of the Year on the DP World Tour in 2021, and after a full season there, he took advantage of a couple of late-season PGA events at the Barbasol Championship and the Barracuda Championship to earn his way into the Korn Ferry Tour Finals. He was T8 at Barbasol and picked up another top-10 at the Cazoo Open on DP World Tour before the Finals, where a T9 at the Nationwide Children's Hospital Championship proved enough to earn his card. He has as much upside as anyone in this range, and at 100/1, we'll gladly back that upside.
Brandon Matthews (+19000) - Matthews was feast or famine on the Korn Ferry Tour last year, with just six finishes inside the top 25 but booking a win, a runner-up, and a T3 among those six. At the Sanderson Farms Championship, he fired an opening 67 and a closing 68, showing he has the ability to post good scores even in PGA Tour conditions, and this field is far closer to the ones he had some spike finishes against than an intimidating PGA event. At nearly 200/1 with one of the biggest weapons in the field in his driver, Matthews is a worthy flier this week.