Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook.
The three-course rotation at Pebble Beach typically results in one of two outcomes - either a known commodity at the top of the board fights his way to victory, or an out-of-nowhere surprise takes advantage of the volatility and crashes the party. Our card will blend the two, with a focus on golfers who can get out of trouble when they miss the green. The Pebble Beach GL greens are among the smallest on Tour, so finding golfers who can hack their way around the greens and still convert is a major focus this week.
For more info on Pebble Beach GL, Monterey Peninsula CC, and Spyglass Hill GC, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Patrick Cantlay (+750) - Cantlay has been undeniable of late, and in this small field, we'll bite the bullet on extremely short odds and still back the California native. The course and event fit are simply too good to pass up, with finishes of 3rd and 11th the past two years at this event and an overall great record on short courses. According to stats from Fantasy National, during his last 50 rounds on courses measuring 7,100 yards or shorter, Cantlay is second in total strokes gained. All three courses in this week's rotation fall under that yardage. As the reigning FedEx Cup champion and the only top-10 golfer in the field, Cantlay is worthy as a clear favorite this week.
Daniel Berger (+1200) - As the defending champ (and the only man gaining more strokes on short courses than Cantlay), Berger must be considered even if the odds are not quite as enticing as we might like. He was also fifth in the 2020 event and 10th in his only other appearance back in 2015. His long-term form is incredibly reliable with just three missed cuts in the last two years. If we want to balance our card and avoid too much exposure at the top, both Berger and Cantlay make for interesting live bets if they are several strokes back on Sunday morning. Berger shot 65 in the final round last year to storm past a slew of competitors.
Mackenzie Hughes (+4100) - The short game is a major strength for Hughes, and while he's no Jason Day (+1700) or Jordan Spieth (+1900), his recipe for victory is the same. He's also best on shorter tracks given his lack of elite distance, and his two best finishes of the past year came in the fall at the RSM Classic and the ZOZO Championship; neither features a course longer than 7,200 yards, and a runner-up and a fourth-place finish are no joke.
That preference for short courses explains his missed cut at the Farmers Insurance Open last week, and we are more encouraged by the fact that it was his first time missing a weekend since the Memorial Tournament in June. The consistency is there overall, and some high finishes give us hope for an outright victory. We can also confidently back him for a solid week and Top 30 Finish (+130).
Patrick Rodgers (+8000) - Rodgers is on a stretch of three straight missed cuts at this event, but a T8 in 2018 and some good form in weaker fields this fall give some hope that he can get his career on track in 2022. Rodgers is 30th in this field in strokes gained: tee to green over his last 50 rounds, and he is solid around the greens (18th in strokes gained: around the green). He has plenty of pedigree and history in California, where he attended Stanford and won a Tiger-tying 11 times. He was the number one amateur in the world for 16 weeks in 2014.
Scott Stallings (+12000) - Some good form at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am catches the eye. Stallings has recent finishes here of T30, MC, 3rd, 7th, and T14. The recent form is not too concerning considering Stallings sprinkles in a week where he contends every couple of months, most recently when finishing T5 in Bermuda. He's 35th in this field in total strokes gained on courses shorter than 7,200 yards, and something about this event really locks him in. We haven't seen him close the deal since 2014, so we'll tack on a juicy Top-10 Finish (+1100).
James Hahn (+16000) - Hahn arrived at Pebble Beach last year in terrific form and tipped here at 75/1, and he promptly missed the cut. It should have come as no surprise that one of the most volatile golfers out there failed to stick to the script. This year. he arrives on the heels of three straight missed cuts, including each of the last two weeks at the American Express and the Farmers, and we remain undeterred. Hahn is 12th in strokes gained: tee to green, but his putter has been miserable. The forgiving greens to help amateurs could finally showcase his iron play.