Market Report Recap for Tuesday, Nov. 16th
San Jose picked up an easy win over the Wild as + 165 underdogs, but the Red Wings, with the same odds, didn’t fare well against the Stars. And after a strong start to the season, player prop betting has gone south over the last couple of weeks. Aleksander Barkov’s injury early in the second period of Tuesday’s game was another step in the wrong direction. Fortunately, there’s still lots of time to sort it out.
20-23, -6.10 units, -13.7 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -105
70-67, -7.75 units, -4.6 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -112
Market Report for Wednesday, Nov. 17th
There are just three games on Wednesday, and bettors should be thankful for that, because as is the case just about every week, Thursday is going to be busy. Then, before you know it, the weekend is here. I’m going to use my time wisely today and spend time looking ahead at the schedule so that I’m fully prepared for what’s coming my way over the next few days.
Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:
Colorado Avalanche (-155) at Vancouver Canucks (+ 135)
Just last week, the Avalanche beat up the Canucks in Colorado by a score of 7-1. Colorado is in Vancouver on Wednesday, and the pressure is on the Canucks to turn their season around, as they only have two wins in their last eight games. Vancouver’s coach and general manager are on the hot seat.
Colorado has a few players on the injured list. Defender Bowen Byram is listed as day-to-day, while J.T. Compher and Nathan MacKinnon are listed as week-to-week. So, that means that the Avalanche are without their best center, and the player that was supposed to fill in for him on the top line.
The Avalanche will probably be just fine, and I estimate that they’ll winning the game about 61 percent of the time. That matches up with their current price of -155, so it doesn’t look like I’ll be laying the favorite, or taking the dog, in this game.
Note: Darcy Kuemper and Thatcher Demko are expected to be the starting goaltenders.
Chicago Blackhawks (+ 130) at Seattle Kraken (-150)
Most modellers and forecasters predicted that the Kraken would finish with somewhere between 90-100 points. I predicted that they would finish with 90.5 points and miss the playoffs about 56 percent of the time. I don’t think anybody predicted that they would be as bad as they have been, especially given how it has all transpired.
Seattle has been good five-on-five, ranking third in shot attempts against per 60 minutes, and fifth in expected goals against per 60 minutes, according to Evolving Hockey. However, even though the Kraken have scored goals at about an average rate, they haven’t been able to keep pucks out of their own net.
Philipp Grubauer has been horrible, allowing approximately 12 goals above expected in 12 games. In other words, according to Evolving Hockey, he’s letting in about a goal more per game than an average goaltender would if they faced the same shots. Seattle has the worst save percentage in the NHL.
The Kraken will have a good chance to get a win on Wednesday, though, as the Blackhawks are in town. Chicago has struggled almost as mightily as Seattle has, in terms of keeping pucks out of their net. Here are the two worst teams on defense (five-on-five):
32. Chicago Blackhawks - 3.53 goals against per 60 minutes (.894 save percentage)
31. Seattle Kraken – 3.35 goals against per 60 minutes (.873 save percentage)
Seattle is the superior team, but are they good enough to warrant a -150 price tag? I don’t think so. At least not right now. By my estimation, the Kraken will defeat the Blackhawks approximately 57.5 percent of the time, depending on who is in goal, which converts to odds of -135.
Note: Marc-Andre Fleury and Philipp Grubauer are expected to be the starting goaltenders.
Washington Capitals (-110) at Los Angeles Kings (-110)
This game is lined like coinflip because it is one, and any mention of the opening price should come with a disclaimer stating that Kings + 110 was only offered at low limits and the line moved very quickly.
Viktor Arvidsson could be back in the Kings’ lineup on Wednesday, which is something I’ve already factored in, but there is some concern that T.J. Oshie could make his return to the Capitals’ lineup a little bit sooner than I anticipated. I don’t think we’ll see Oshie suit up on Wednesday, but the Capitals play the Kraken on Sunday, and he has been skating hard at practice according to various reports.
Washington is coming of an overtime-loss in Anaheim on Tuesday, and they’re playing their fifth game in seven nights, so the Kings should be priced as a small favorite. My projection could change a little bit, depending on who the Kings’ start in goal and whether there are any changes to the lineups, but it doesn’t look like I’ll be getting involved with either side.
Note: Ilya Samsonov is expected to start for the Capitals. Jonathan Quick is listed as the expected starter in some places, but I wouldn’t read much into that just yet.