When the underlying data aligns with what the public can see with their eyeballs, we've got a bit of an issue.
With just a game on Friday, I only have a lean. It's just not sharp enough to feel good about.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Header links are to numberFire's betting model for each game. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes
Hurricanes -1.5 (+215) - Lean
I haven't decided if I'll bet on this yet, but per my process, this is the side to be on after Game 1.
Carolina absolutely waxed the New Jersey Devils on Wednesday. Expected goals were 4.36-1.94 in favor of the Hurricanes, so the 5-1 final score was more than indicative of how the game was played.
My lone Stanley Cup futures bet this season was on Carolina, so I don't need convincing. They led the NHL in expected-goals-for rate (57.5 xGF%) in the regular season, but they were held back by Frederik Andersen, who posted just 2.59 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) in 34 appearances.
In just two games since returning, Andersen's already eclipsed his season total at 3.03 GSAx (seventh-best in the playoffs). If that's the level of goaltending Carolina will get, the engravers might as well get busy. Boston's premature exit only helps their chances, too.
The problem is this is the square side. The Canes' puckline is getting 56% of the bets but just 44% of the money. Sharps might be buying low on the Devils, but the public might have this one right.