NHL Betting Guide: Friday 5/20/22

With an overtime win for the Carolina Hurricanes in Game 1, can the Rangers fight back to wrestle home ice in Game 2? Will we see fireworks again in Calgary, or can Edmonton make a single routine save?

Let's find out.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

New York Rangers at Carolina Hurricanes

Rangers ML (+140) - 1 Star
Under 5.5 (-122) - 3 Stars

It's hard to pass on the Rags in this spot to take Game 2.

Our model believes New York wins this game outright a fair 45.0% of the time, and the +140 odds only imply a 41.7% chance that happens.

New York posted 3.12 expected goals in Game 1, but they ended up recording just one tally. The Canes were actually lower (3.06) but came away with the second and deciding score in overtime.

The under is also a solid target in this one. Even with the aforementioned 6.18 expected goals in Game 1, these goalies are just on fire. Both Igor Shesterkin and Antti Raanta are top-five in the playoffs in goals saved above expectation.

numberFire's algorithm believes this game stays under six total goals 64.5% of the time. In the 20 most similar games to this one by the model's calculations, 12 of them fell short of six total scores. That amounts to a three-star play.

Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames

Oilers +1.5 (-170) - 2 Stars
Under 6.5 (+104) - 3 Stars

This might be the sharpest under we've seen all season.

With a 15-goal circus occurring on Wednesday, the over is predictably getting pounded with just 7 goals needed in this one to get there. Our model -- perhaps taking crazy pills -- still gives a 60.1% chance this game stays under its total.

It really wasn't high-level offense that generated that outburst despite the stars involved. While there were 7.32 expected goals combined, that was far more normal than the score would indicate.

Mike Smith had a particularly tough day at the office, but he's been the second-best goalie in terms of goals saved above expectation (6.51) in the entire postseason. He's earned the benefit of the doubt for an off night.

With a lower-scoring game potentially on the horizon, there's value here in Edmonton in keeping this game within a marker. Even with 63.0% implied odds, the model believes the Oilers win or stay within a goal 67.6% of the time.