Betting on the NBA can be tricky, but you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Which NBA bets stand out in tonight's games? All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Celtics +4 (-112) - 1 Star
When you saw analytical models picking the Celtics at an 80% clip, this series has shown why.
The Warriors have needed a superhuman, heroic effort from Stephen Curry to win two of the four games thus far. Curry's 66.4% true shooting percentage (TS%) -- given his shot selection and stature -- has been one of the greatest feats in NBA Finals history thus far. For context, the top five in TS% this regular season were all centers north of 70.0%. It's not a mark you see a guard hovering around all too often.
Further, Curry is shooting 49.1% from deep in the four games so far. His career-long mark -- including a period with much more offensive freedom next to Kevin Durant -- is just 40.0% in the NBA Finals. I just can't see this lightning-rod version of Steph sticking around against a historic defense.
63% of bets and 69% of the money tonight are on Golden State to cover a four-point spread. The expectation is they'll carry Friday's momentum into a boat race at home. However, the C's haven't lost back-to-back games since March 30th, including the entire postseason.
Our model believes Golden State wins 59.8% of the time tonight. I disagree, but even with that said, it's still giving a one-star lean on the Celtics' spread. It views Boston as 55.0% likely to cover versus the 52.8% implied odds here.
Under 210.5 (-108) - 2 Stars
Chase Center is the only place we've seen an "under" hit thus far.
That was in Game 2, which was a runaway win for the Warriors. To this point, our model has taken the "under" in all four contests and sits with just a 1-3 record doing so. I know that feel, bro.
By in large, these two teams aren't getting good shots. Both have under a 0.50 shot quality, and that would have ranked both in the bottom-10 of the NBA's regular season.
On the Golden State side, Curry has done plenty of that shot-making as mentioned. Boston also shot 52.4% from deep in their Game 1 win. These two teams have dramatically outshot and outperformed a 95.38 average pace in this series.
numberFire's model is sticking to its guns. It views this game to stay under the reduced total (210.5) a sizable 58.9% of the time. Against 52.2% implied odds, that is rated as a two-star wager.
Including Game 2, 15 of the 20 most similarly-profiled games in our database fell short of 211 points.
Swaim-Game Parlay (+505)
Jayson Tatum Over 26.5 Points
Stephen Curry Under 30.5 Points
Just one game on the slate means it's Same-Game Parlay season now more than ever on FanDuel Sportsbook. For some fun, I drop 0.25 units a day on one to see if it hits. Feel free to tail mine...or create your own!
Friday's parlay was the worst of the postseason so far, missing three legs. Hopefully, regression is kind -- especially following the KISS principle today.
I'm personally split with our model today. It likes the C's to cover but not win. Boston, as mentioned, hasn't lost back-to-back games since March 30th, and they've won by an average of 15.2 points this postseason following a loss. For some reason, this team we're all familiar with by now plays better in spots they're expected to lose. I'll take a swipe at Celtics ML (+142).
In order to win, Boston will likely need two things to happen. First, Jayson Tatum will have to play his best game of the series. He's shooting a horrific 33.4% in this series despite 42.5% shooting from deep. It's been a ton of missed layups and bunnies for Tatum.
J.T's lowest mark for shooting in a series came against Milwaukee (42.1%), but even then, he responded with 48.0% shooting in the final three games of it. Jayson Tatum Over 26.5 Points (-120) is a bet he starts to get hot in Game 5.
On the flip side, the Celtics will need to extinguish Curry. It's likely been the central focus of their gameplan this weekend. It's just almost unfathomable that Curry can continue to shoot nearly 50% from three against what is regarded as one of the best defenses of the modern era.
I will continue to attack Stephen Curry Under 30.5 Points (+100) when numberFire's model -- which believes Golden State will win -- has Curry pegged for just 28.9 points at a median outcome.