NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 11/23/21: Studying Up on All 4 Games Tonight

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons

We're going to dive into all four games to see what betting value is emerging -- even if it's not much.

numberFire's model does see some recommendations in this game, however. The 4-12 Detroit Pistons are expected to cover a 10.0-point spread at home 58.6% of the time, good for a two-star recommendation. That means that we could place a two-unit wager on them to cover against the Miami Heat.

The model also sees Detroit's moneyline (+350) as valuable enough -- at a 27.7% probability -- to earn a one-star recommendation.

Based on their shot dispersion allowed over their past 10 games, the Pistons rank just 26th in defensive luck on a point-per-shot basis. Teams at an NBA average shooting rate should've scored just 104.9 points per game against them in this sample but actually scored 108.9.

That's enough to justify a big underdog keeping it close.

Los Angeles Lakers at New York Knicks

The big news here is that LeBron James is suspended, but we do have quite the sample without him so far this season.

Without James on the floor this year, the Los Angeles Lakers have a net rating of -5.3.

Despite that, numberFire's model views slight value on this game to stay close enough for the Lakers to cover a 6.0-point spread as road underdogs against the New York Knicks.

The Knicks are drawing a 65.3% win probability outright, and after some line movement, that's put their moneyline (-184) into one-star territory, according to our algorithm. My model sees the Knicks' win odds at 63.4% -- in line with numberFire's projections.

Notably, only 9% of the money on moneyline bets has come in on the Lakers, according to oddsFire. That pales in comparison to the 40% of bets on them to win. Heavy money is backing the Knicks.

Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers

numberFire's model is liking the 9-8 Denver Nuggets to keep it close against the 9-8 Portland Trail Blazers.

It sees the Nuggets +6.0 and their moneyline (+215) as three-star offerings. I can't quite get there, myself.

The Nuggets list Nikola Jokic as questionable and Michael Porter Jr. as still out. Without those two off the floor across 317 minutes, the Nuggets have a dreadful 15.3 net rating.

My model actually views the Blazers' side as more valuable, as a result. They should be 10.0-point home favorites, per my numbers, and are 71.8% likely to get the win. I'd rather bet them, but the discrepancy could mean a stay-away spot for me, personally.

We are seeing heavy betting action on the Blazers, too: their moneyline is getting 91% of the money, via oddsFire. So this does push me closer to the Blazers than a no-action opportunity.

Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Clippers

The Dallas Mavericks (9-7) and Los Angeles Clippers (10-7) have similar records, but bookmakers are putting a 5.5-point gap between the Clippers at home over the Mavs.

That's a bet that numberFire's model likes while Luka Doncic is questionable. The Clippers -5.5 is a one-star recommendation, and their moneyline (-210) is a two-star bet, via the model at numberFire. Our algorithm sees the Clippers as 54.7% likely to cover the spread and as 73.8% likely to pick up the win. That bests their moneyline odds of 67.7%.

Back to the Doncic news: Dallas is 0-3 in games without Doncic this season with a -7.0 net rating.

My model would've anticipated a spread of 7.5 points with that factored in -- plus the home-court advantage.

And lastly, we're seeing heavier betting money rates (83%) on the Clippers than we are seeing ticket rates (50%).