NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 11/16/21: Are the Clippers a Lock Tonight?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Golden State Warriors at Brooklyn Nets

We've got just three games on tap tonight, so I'll dig into all three.

There's some discord between how numberFire's model views this game (62.2% likely that the Brooklyn Nets win) and how my model views it (55.2% likely the Golden State Warriors win).

numberFire's model sees no value on either side of the spread (the Nets are favored by 3.5), but mine sees the Warriors as 63.3% likely to cover. I'm interested in that.

The Warriors have the NBA's best point differential (+13.2) and the second-best spread-adjusted point differential (+7.1). The Nets are a +5.0 in raw point differential but a -1.1 in spread-adjusted point differential.

I will say that numberFire's model loves the over (221.5) here. It sees the over as 72.7% likely to hit. That leads to an expected return of 38.7%.

My model doesn't quite see it that way, but that's numberFire's favorite bet of the night across all three games.

Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz

The Philadelphia 76ers will be thin tonight.

They list Joel Embiid, Danny Green, and Matisse Thybulle -- among others -- as out. Without those three on the floor, Philadelphia's net rating is a -10.4 over 140 minutes this season.

With at least two of them off the floor, however, they're actually a +4.1 over 439 minutes, so let's not get too carried away with such a particular sample, especially at just 140 minutes.

numberFire's model thinks the 10.0-point spread is too great for the Utah Jazz to cover, so it lists the Sixers +10.0 as a two-star recommendation.

That means we can go with a two-unit wager on Philadelphia. The median projected total for this game is 112.5 to 105.7 in favor of Utah.

The 76ers' moneyline (+350) is listed as a one-star recommendation, too.

My data -- given the Sixers' injuries -- sees the spread as 7.0 points, so there's another model liking the 76ers to keep pace and cover.

San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers

The top bet in this game, per numberFire's algorithm, is for the home team, the 8-5 Los Angeles Clippers, to beat the 4-9 San Antonio Spurs.

Their moneyline is -310, suggesting win odds of 75.6%.

numberFire's model views the Clippers' win chances at 82.1%. Even at -310, we can go hard at it, given the heavy probability that they net the win. The expected return is still 8.6%.

The model also likes the Clippers -7.5 to cover at a 58.2% probability. The expected return there is 11.2% but is -- obviously -- not as likely as the outright win.

Across the 25 most comparable games to this one in our database, teams representing the Clippers have won at a 76.0% rate, so a lot points to the moneyline's safety paying off for those willing to eat the odds.