NBA Betting Guide for Friday 11/19/21: Can Detroit Keep Pace With Golden State?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Golden State Warriors at Detroit Pistons

Stephen Curry is fresh off of a 40-point outing against the Cleveland Cavaliers but is listed as day-to-day with a hip injury that he played through in that game when he went off, so he's probably good to go on this second night of a back-to-back.

Notably, though, Andre Iguodala is listed as out for the Golden State Warriors

Is that enough for the Detroit Pistons to cover a 7.5-point spread as home underdogs?

numberFire's model says yes.

The algorithm here views Detriot +7.5 as a three-star betting opportunity and as 62.2% likely to hit. The expected return, then, is 18.7%.

Detroit's moneyline (+260) is only 36.6% likely, but the return is listed at 31.8%. The heavy-return, low-probability combo equates to a two-star recommendation, via numberFire's model.

Based on the shot dispersion that the Pistons have allowed to opponents, they should have given up an average of only 101.1 points per game over their past 10, yet opponents have scored 108.3.

The Warriors have held opponents to 97.6 points per game over their past 10, but at a league-average shooting rate from opponents, they'd be expected to give up 103.3 (2.2 more points than the expected rate for Detroit).

Using the team's splits with Curry playing but without Iguodala, my model views the 7.5-point spread as efficient. numberFire's model is keener on this spot, though, so at worst, it's fair value, and with numberFire's model so heavy, we can take the points.

Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns

Our model is fairly light on value overall for tonight's slate, so even a one-star opportunity is appealing.

That's what we get on the 9-5 Dallas Mavericks' spread (+8.0) on the road against the 11-3 Phoenix Suns.

The Mavericks are 6-4 over their past 10 games despite some poor defensive luck.

Based on the shot dispersion they have allowed, they should have given up 103.3 points per game but have actually surrendered 106.6. The Suns, meanwhile, should've allowed 106.0 but have given up 101.0.

So it's a similar case to the Warriors/Pistons game where the underdog is probably due for some progression and the favorite is probably due for some regression (they're both regression; I'm just trying to make a point here of the direction back toward the mean).

No, I'm not writing off the fact that Luka Doncic is doubtful. The Mavericks do have a net rating of +15.0 across 220 minutes without him on the floor. That insane rate won't stick, but they've not been horrid without him.

Toronto Raptors at Sacramento Kings

There's a one-star recommendation on the Sacramento Kings' moneyline (-152) in this game against the Toronto Raptors.

This is despite a similar record (the Kings are 6-9, and the Raptors are a nicer 7-9).

The Kings get home-court advantage plus a day-of-rest advantage.

Last season, home teams favored by 2 to 4 points with a rest advantage against teams on a back-to-back covered at a 61.9% rate across 22 games. They won 68.2% of those games outright.

More importantly, numberFire's model sees the Kings as 62.6% likely to get the win here, which puts an expected return in play of 3.8% on their moneyline (-152).

Over each team's last 10 games, the Kings have a +1.6 spread-adjusted point differential, and the Raptors are at a -1.0.