numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for today.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers
Under 8.0 (-118): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
It sure feels like the Los Angeles Dodgers are hanging on by a thread after losing Game 4 last night and having to go with a bullpen game with their season on the line versus red-hot Atlanta Braves pitcher Max Fried. But as a testament to how good LA has been this season, the Dodgers are still favored tonight over the Atlanta Braves, with Los Angeles at -146 on the moneyline.
Our model sees no value on the moneyline as of early Thursday, but we do like the under.
Fried has been really great since the All-Star break. Over the second half, his 1.74 ERA is the best mark in baseball, and while his 3.08 xFIP isn't quite as deadly, it's still the fifth-best second-half xFIP among all hurlers. Fried held LA to two runs over six innings in Game 1 and has a 30.4% strikeout rate and 1.87 xFIP in 12 innings this postseason.
The Braves' southpaw is taking on a Dodgers offense that is floundering in the playoffs. The Dodgers have a .661 OPS in the postseason, which is by far the worst clip among the four teams still alive, and they're averaging a meager 3.5 runs per game.
Atlanta's offense has been better, but they're not exactly lighting it up, either. Their .730 OPS is the second-worst number among the remaining four teams, and they were averaging just 3.6 runs per game in the postseason prior to last night's nine-run explosion.
While the Dodgers haven't yet announced a starter, it's expected to be a bullpen game. Corey Knebel may kicks things off, but in a win-or-go-home situation, we could see just about anyone take the mound at some point for LA, including a likely parade of relievers from a bullpen that tied for the best reliever xFIP (3.75) in the regular season.
All in all, our algorithm has the Dodgers winning 3.68-3.41. That's 7.09 total runs, and we project the under to hit 54.6% of the time.