Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
Team | Opp SP | O/U | ImpliedTotal | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
BOS | MikeBaumann | 9.0 | 4.86 | 35.9% | 21.8% | 11.9% | 5.9% | 2.7% |
PHI | JavierAssad | 7.5 | 4.29 | 26.2% | 14.3% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
LAA | ColeIrvin | 7.0 | 4.21 | 24.8% | 13.4% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
MIL | BraxtonGarrett | 7.5 | 4.19 | 24.5% | 13.1% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
SF | RyanFeltner | 7.0 | 4.15 | 23.9% | 12.7% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
BAL | NathanEovaldi | 9.0 | 4.14 | 23.7% | 12.6% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
DET | JonHeasley | 7.5 | 3.91 | 20.1% | 10.2% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
CHW | LouieVarland | 7.5 | 3.86 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
MIN | LucasGiolito | 7.5 | 3.64 | 16.1% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
SEA | JonGray | 7.0 | 3.60 | 15.6% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
KC | EduardoRodriguez | 7.5 | 3.59 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
TEX | MarcoGonzales | 7.0 | 3.40 | 12.9% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
MIA | EricLauer | 7.5 | 3.31 | 11.8% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
TB | CalQuantrill | 6.5 | 3.30 | 11.7% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
CHC | RangerSuarez | 7.5 | 3.21 | 10.7% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
CLE | JeffreySprings | 6.5 | 3.20 | 10.5% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
COL | CarlosRodon | 7.0 | 2.85 | 7.0% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
OAK | ShoheiOhtani | 7.0 | 2.79 | 6.4% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Pitcher | Opp | KProj | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
ShoheiOhtani | OAK | 8.0 | 95.8% | 90.0% | 80.9% | 68.7% | 54.7% | 40.7% | 28.3% |
CarlosRodon | COL | 7.7 | 94.9% | 88.3% | 78.1% | 65.0% | 50.6% | 36.7% | 24.8% |
LucasGiolito | MIN | 6.0 | 84.4% | 70.8% | 54.6% | 38.6% | 24.9% | 14.8% | 8.1% |
EricLauer | MIA | 5.8 | 82.5% | 68.0% | 51.3% | 35.4% | 22.2% | 12.8% | 6.8% |
JeffreySprings | CLE | 5.6 | 80.7% | 65.5% | 48.5% | 32.7% | 20.0% | 11.3% | 5.8% |
JonGray | SEA | 5.4 | 78.2% | 62.0% | 44.7% | 29.2% | 17.4% | 9.4% | 4.7% |
AndrewHeaney | SD | 5.3 | 76.8% | 60.2% | 42.8% | 27.5% | 16.1% | 8.6% | 4.2% |
SeanManaea | LAD | 5.0 | 73.9% | 56.5% | 38.9% | 24.2% | 13.7% | 7.0% | 3.3% |
BraxtonGarrett | MIL | 4.8 | 71.2% | 53.1% | 35.6% | 21.5% | 11.7% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
EduardoRodriguez | KC | 4.8 | 70.4% | 52.2% | 34.7% | 20.8% | 11.2% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
LouieVarland | CHW | 4.7 | 69.5% | 51.1% | 33.7% | 19.9% | 10.7% | 5.2% | 2.3% |
RangerSuarez | CHC | 4.7 | 69.3% | 50.9% | 33.5% | 19.8% | 10.6% | 5.1% | 2.3% |
NathanEovaldi | BAL | 4.7 | 68.7% | 50.2% | 32.8% | 19.3% | 10.2% | 4.9% | 2.2% |
CalQuantrill | TB | 4.5 | 65.3% | 46.2% | 29.2% | 16.5% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
ColeIrvin | LAA | 4.4 | 63.5% | 44.3% | 27.5% | 15.3% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
MarcoGonzales | TEX | 4.1 | 57.6% | 38.1% | 22.3% | 11.6% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
JavierAssad | PHI | 3.7 | 49.5% | 30.3% | 16.3% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
RyanFeltner | SF | 3.5 | 45.7% | 26.9% | 13.8% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
JonHeasley | DET | 3.3 | 41.7% | 23.6% | 11.6% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
MikeBaumann | BOS | 3.0 | 34.6% | 18.0% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
BrusdarGraterol | SD | 1.5 | 6.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.
Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.
Batter | Team | SplitAdv? | HRPF | OppSP | HRProb% | xHROdds |
RhysHoskins | PHI | No | 103 | JavierAssad | 29.6% | +240 |
JocPederson | SF | Yes | 87 | RyanFeltner | 26.7% | +275 |
GavinSheets | CHW | Yes | 99 | LouieVarland | 24.4% | +310 |
BryceHarper | PHI | Yes | 96 | JavierAssad | 24.4% | +310 |
KyleSchwarber | PHI | Yes | 96 | JavierAssad | 24.4% | +310 |
MookieBetts | LAD | Yes | 96 | SeanManaea | 24.2% | +315 |
AnthonySantander | BAL | Yes | 93 | NathanEovaldi | 23.9% | +320 |
RafaelDevers | BOS | Yes | 93 | MikeBaumann | 23.4% | +325 |
ShoheiOhtani | LAA | No | 108 | ColeIrvin | 23.0% | +335 |
MikeTrout | LAA | Yes | 103 | ColeIrvin | 22.3% | +350 |
BrandonDrury | SD | Yes | 96 | AndrewHeaney | 21.2% | +370 |
J.D.Martinez | BOS | No | 99 | MikeBaumann | 21.2% | +370 |
TreaTurner | LAD | Yes | 96 | SeanManaea | 20.7% | +385 |
TaylorWard | LAA | Yes | 103 | ColeIrvin | 20.7% | +385 |
AndrewMcCutchen | MIL | Yes | 103 | BraxtonGarrett | 20.1% | +400 |
JoseRamirez | CLE | Yes | 99 | JeffreySprings | 19.5% | +415 |
PatrickWisdom | CHC | Yes | 103 | RangerSuarez | 19.5% | +415 |
DavidVillar | SF | No | 90 | RyanFeltner | 19.3% | +420 |
WillSmith | LAD | Yes | 96 | SeanManaea | 19.0% | +425 |
C.J.Cron | COL | Yes | 90 | CarlosRodon | 18.7% | +435 |
CalRaleigh | SEA | Yes | 96 | JonGray | 18.4% | +445 |
JoshJung | TEX | Yes | 99 | MarcoGonzales | 18.3% | +445 |
RyanMountcastle | BAL | No | 99 | NathanEovaldi | 18.0% | +455 |
SeanMurphy | OAK | No | 103 | ShoheiOhtani | 17.9% | +460 |
ElvisAndrus | CHW | No | 98 | LouieVarland | 17.8% | +460 |
KestonHiura | MIL | Yes | 103 | BraxtonGarrett | 17.6% | +470 |
MichaelBrosseau | MIL | Yes | 103 | BraxtonGarrett | 17.6% | +470 |
BryanDeLaCruz | MIA | Yes | 103 | EricLauer | 17.6% | +470 |
AdleyRutschman | BAL | Yes | 93 | NathanEovaldi | 17.4% | +475 |
MaxMuncy | LAD | No | 95 | SeanManaea | 17.3% | +475 |
JuanSoto | SD | No | 95 | AndrewHeaney | 17.3% | +475 |
LaMonteWadeJr | SF | Yes | 87 | RyanFeltner | 17.1% | +485 |
SalvadorPerez | KC | Yes | 99 | EduardoRodriguez | 17.0% | +485 |
AdolisGarcia | TEX | Yes | 99 | MarcoGonzales | 17.0% | +485 |
RandyArozarena | TB | No | 99 | CalQuantrill | 16.8% | +495 |
DermisGarcia | OAK | No | 103 | ShoheiOhtani | 16.7% | +500 |
AndrewVaughn | CHW | No | 98 | LouieVarland | 16.6% | +500 |
MarcusSemien | TEX | Yes | 99 | MarcoGonzales | 16.4% | +510 |
WillyAdames | MIL | Yes | 103 | BraxtonGarrett | 16.2% | +515 |
EugenioSuarez | SEA | No | 99 | JonGray | 16.2% | +520 |
J.T.Realmuto | PHI | No | 103 | JavierAssad | 16.0% | +525 |
CoreySeager | TEX | No | 96 | MarcoGonzales | 16.0% | +525 |
BobbyWittJr. | KC | Yes | 99 | EduardoRodriguez | 15.7% | +535 |
GarrettCooper | MIA | Yes | 103 | EricLauer | 15.5% | +545 |
LuisRengifo | LAA | Yes | 103 | ColeIrvin | 15.5% | +545 |
ChristopherMorel | CHC | Yes | 103 | RangerSuarez | 15.5% | +545 |
CharlesLeblanc | MIA | Yes | 103 | EricLauer | 15.5% | +545 |
NickMaton | PHI | Yes | 96 | JavierAssad | 15.4% | +550 |
GioUrshela | MIN | No | 98 | LucasGiolito | 15.4% | +550 |
JustinTurner | LAD | Yes | 96 | SeanManaea | 15.3% | +550 |
MannyMachado | SD | Yes | 96 | AndrewHeaney | 15.3% | +550 |
TrayceThompson | LAD | Yes | 96 | SeanManaea | 15.3% | +550 |
ChristianBethancourt | TB | No | 99 | CalQuantrill | 14.9% | +570 |
ConnerCapel | OAK | Yes | 108 | ShoheiOhtani | 14.9% | +570 |
HunterRenfroe | MIL | Yes | 103 | BraxtonGarrett | 14.8% | +575 |
JoAdell | LAA | Yes | 103 | ColeIrvin | 14.8% | +575 |
SeiyaSuzuki | CHC | Yes | 103 | RangerSuarez | 14.8% | +575 |
MikeYastrzemski | SF | Yes | 87 | RyanFeltner | 14.8% | +575 |
NathanielLowe | TEX | No | 96 | MarcoGonzales | 14.4% | +595 |
JoeyBart | SF | No | 90 | RyanFeltner | 14.4% | +595 |
HunterDozier | KC | Yes | 99 | EduardoRodriguez | 14.4% | +595 |
JonahHeim | TEX | Yes | 99 | MarcoGonzales | 14.4% | +595 |
JoseAbreu | CHW | No | 98 | LouieVarland | 14.1% | +610 |
VictorCaratini | MIL | Yes | 103 | BraxtonGarrett | 14.1% | +610 |
TyroneTaylor | MIL | Yes | 103 | BraxtonGarrett | 14.1% | +610 |
CedricMullins | BAL | Yes | 93 | NathanEovaldi | 13.8% | +625 |
JasonVosler | SF | Yes | 87 | RyanFeltner | 13.6% | +635 |
SethBrown | OAK | Yes | 108 | ShoheiOhtani | 13.4% | +645 |
NickFortes | MIA | Yes | 103 | EricLauer | 13.4% | +650 |
AlanTrejo | COL | Yes | 90 | CarlosRodon | 13.3% | +655 |
WilmerFlores | SF | No | 90 | RyanFeltner | 13.1% | +660 |
ThairoEstrada | SF | No | 90 | RyanFeltner | 13.1% | +660 |
GunnarHenderson | BAL | Yes | 93 | NathanEovaldi | 13.1% | +660 |
GarySanchez | MIN | No | 98 | LucasGiolito | 12.8% | +680 |
LuisUrias | MIL | Yes | 103 | BraxtonGarrett | 12.6% | +695 |
JuricksonProfar | SD | Yes | 96 | AndrewHeaney | 12.6% | +695 |
ChrisTaylor | LAD | Yes | 96 | SeanManaea | 12.6% | +695 |
ElehurisMontero | COL | Yes | 90 | CarlosRodon | 12.6% | +695 |
RougnedOdor | BAL | Yes | 93 | NathanEovaldi | 12.5% | +700 |
CarlosSantana | SEA | Yes | 96 | JonGray | 12.1% | +725 |
JarredKelenic | SEA | Yes | 96 | JonGray | 12.1% | +725 |
JoshHarrison | CHW | No | 98 | LouieVarland | 12.1% | +725 |
A.J.Pollock | CHW | No | 98 | LouieVarland | 12.1% | +725 |
CarlosCorrea | MIN | No | 98 | LucasGiolito | 12.1% | +725 |
MJMelendez | KC | No | 94 | EduardoRodriguez | 11.9% | +740 |
JorgeAlfaro | SD | Yes | 96 | AndrewHeaney | 11.9% | +745 |
BrianAnderson | MIA | Yes | 103 | EricLauer | 11.8% | +745 |
JavierBaez | DET | No | 99 | JonHeasley | 11.5% | +770 |
MitchHaniger | SEA | No | 99 | JonGray | 11.5% | +770 |
OscarGonzalez | CLE | Yes | 99 | JeffreySprings | 11.4% | +775 |
VinniePasquantino | KC | No | 94 | EduardoRodriguez | 11.4% | +780 |
RandalGrichuk | COL | Yes | 90 | CarlosRodon | 11.2% | +790 |
JoshBell | SD | Yes | 96 | AndrewHeaney | 11.1% | +800 |
Ha-SeongKim | SD | Yes | 96 | AndrewHeaney | 11.1% | +800 |
WillsonContreras | CHC | Yes | 103 | RangerSuarez | 11.0% | +805 |
FranmilReyes | CHC | Yes | 103 | RangerSuarez | 11.0% | +805 |
MattWallner | MIN | Yes | 99 | LucasGiolito | 11.0% | +810 |
AustinHays | BAL | No | 99 | NathanEovaldi | 10.8% | +830 |
TyFrance | SEA | No | 99 | JonGray | 10.8% | +830 |
JoseMiranda | MIN | No | 98 | LucasGiolito | 10.7% | +835 |
DavidPeralta | TB | Yes | 103 | CalQuantrill | 10.6% | +840 |
HaroldCastro | DET | Yes | 94 | JonHeasley | 10.5% | +850 |
RileyGreene | DET | Yes | 94 | JonHeasley | 10.5% | +850 |
BrandonCrawford | SF | Yes | 87 | RyanFeltner | 10.5% | +855 |
TristonCasas | BOS | Yes | 93 | MikeBaumann | 10.4% | +860 |
FreddieFreeman | LAD | No | 95 | SeanManaea | 10.3% | +875 |
LivanSoto | LAA | No | 108 | ColeIrvin | 10.1% | +885 |
JoseSiri | TB | No | 99 | CalQuantrill | 10.0% | +895 |
WilliCastro | DET | Yes | 94 | JonHeasley | 9.8% | +920 |
EliasDiaz | COL | Yes | 90 | CarlosRodon | 9.8% | +920 |
WilMyers | SD | Yes | 96 | AndrewHeaney | 9.6% | +940 |
YasmaniGrandal | CHW | Yes | 99 | LouieVarland | 9.5% | +955 |
JonathanSchoop | DET | No | 99 | JonHeasley | 9.3% | +975 |
ChristianArroyo | BOS | No | 99 | MikeBaumann | 9.3% | +975 |
MichaelTaylor | KC | Yes | 99 | EduardoRodriguez | 9.1% | +1005 |
WanderFranco | TB | Yes | 103 | CalQuantrill | 9.0% | +1010 |
AlecBohm | PHI | No | 103 | JavierAssad | 8.8% | +1030 |
SheaLangeliers | OAK | No | 103 | ShoheiOhtani | 8.8% | +1030 |
JonBerti | MIA | Yes | 103 | EricLauer | 8.5% | +1070 |
JorgeMateo | BAL | No | 99 | NathanEovaldi | 8.5% | +1070 |
BrandonMarsh | PHI | Yes | 96 | JavierAssad | 8.5% | +1080 |
TuckerBarnhart | DET | Yes | 94 | JonHeasley | 8.3% | +1105 |
JeimerCandelario | DET | Yes | 94 | JonHeasley | 8.3% | +1105 |
JakeCave | MIN | Yes | 99 | LucasGiolito | 7.9% | +1165 |
XanderBogaerts | BOS | No | 99 | MikeBaumann | 7.7% | +1190 |
EnriqueHernandez | BOS | No | 99 | MikeBaumann | 7.7% | +1190 |
TommyPham | BOS | No | 99 | MikeBaumann | 7.7% | +1190 |
VimaelMachin | OAK | Yes | 108 | ShoheiOhtani | 7.7% | +1200 |
AlexVerdugo | BOS | Yes | 93 | MikeBaumann | 7.5% | +1240 |
AmedRosario | CLE | Yes | 99 | JeffreySprings | 7.4% | +1255 |
LeodyTaveras | TEX | Yes | 99 | MarcoGonzales | 7.4% | +1255 |
BubbaThompson | TEX | Yes | 99 | MarcoGonzales | 7.4% | +1255 |
JoseAzocar | SD | Yes | 96 | AndrewHeaney | 7.2% | +1290 |
ChristianYelich | MIL | No | 101 | BraxtonGarrett | 6.8% | +1365 |
TonyKemp | OAK | Yes | 108 | ShoheiOhtani | 6.8% | +1370 |
AkilBaddoo | DET | Yes | 94 | JonHeasley | 6.8% | +1375 |