MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 9/22/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U ImpliedTotal 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
SFJoseUrena11.55.8452.8%36.8%23.4%13.7%7.3%
COLJohnBrebbia11.55.6649.8%33.9%21.1%12.0%6.3%
NYYMichaelWacha8.04.3326.8%14.8%7.3%3.3%1.3%
TEXMichaelLorenzen8.04.3226.7%14.7%7.3%3.2%1.3%
SDJackFlaherty8.04.2826.0%14.2%7.0%3.1%1.3%
MINJonHeasley8.04.1523.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
SEAAdrianMartinez7.04.1423.7%12.6%6.0%2.6%1.0%
MILHunterGreene7.54.0722.6%11.8%5.5%2.4%0.9%
LADZacGallen7.04.0622.4%11.7%5.5%2.3%0.9%
ATLRangerSuarez7.54.0322.0%11.4%5.3%2.2%0.9%
HOUKyleBradish7.04.0021.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
TORJ.T.Chargois7.53.9120.1%10.2%4.6%1.9%0.7%
KCJoshWinder8.03.8519.2%9.6%4.3%1.7%0.6%
CLEJohnnyCueto7.03.7217.3%8.4%3.6%1.4%0.5%
STLJoeMusgrove8.03.7217.3%8.4%3.6%1.4%0.5%
LAAMartinPerez8.03.6816.7%8.0%3.4%1.3%0.5%
BOSJamesonTaillon8.03.6716.6%7.9%3.4%1.3%0.5%
TBJoseBerrios7.53.5915.5%7.2%3.0%1.1%0.4%
PITHaydenWesneski7.03.5514.9%6.9%2.9%1.1%0.4%
PHIMaxFried7.53.4713.8%6.3%2.6%0.9%0.3%
CHCMitchKeller7.03.4513.6%6.2%2.5%0.9%0.3%
CINBrandonWoodruff7.53.4313.3%6.0%2.4%0.9%0.3%
CHWShaneBieber7.03.2811.5%5.0%1.9%0.7%0.2%
BALJustinVerlander7.03.008.4%3.4%1.2%0.4%0.1%
ARIJulioUrias7.02.947.8%3.1%1.1%0.3%0.1%
OAKGeorgeKirby7.02.867.0%2.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp KProj 3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
BrandonWoodruffCIN7.895.2%89.0%79.2%66.4%52.2%38.2%26.1%
ShaneBieberCHW6.588.8%77.6%63.1%47.3%32.7%20.8%12.3%
HunterGreeneMIL6.588.8%77.6%63.1%47.3%32.7%20.8%12.3%
JustinVerlanderBAL6.286.7%74.3%58.9%42.9%28.7%17.6%10.0%
MaxFriedPHI5.984.3%70.7%54.5%38.4%24.8%14.7%8.0%
JoeMusgroveSTL5.983.7%69.7%53.3%37.3%23.8%14.0%7.5%
RangerSuarezATL5.882.8%68.4%51.8%35.8%22.6%13.1%7.0%
JulioUriasARI5.680.6%65.3%48.3%32.5%19.9%11.2%5.7%
MartinPerezLAA5.377.8%61.5%44.2%28.7%17.0%9.2%4.5%
HaydenWesneskiPIT5.275.9%59.1%41.6%26.5%15.3%8.0%3.9%
GeorgeKirbyOAK5.073.8%56.3%38.8%24.1%13.5%6.9%3.3%
ZacGallenLAD5.073.6%56.1%38.6%23.9%13.4%6.9%3.2%
MichaelWachaNYY4.971.3%53.3%35.8%21.6%11.8%5.9%2.7%
JoseBerriosTB4.971.3%53.3%35.8%21.6%11.8%5.9%2.7%
JamesonTaillonBOS4.870.9%52.7%35.2%21.2%11.5%5.7%2.6%
KyleBradishHOU4.566.1%47.2%30.0%17.2%8.8%4.1%1.8%
JohnnyCuetoCLE4.261.2%41.8%25.3%13.7%6.7%2.9%1.2%
MitchKellerCHC4.159.3%39.8%23.7%12.6%6.0%2.6%1.0%
MichaelLorenzenTEX4.056.1%36.5%21.0%10.8%4.9%2.0%0.8%
JoseUrenaSF3.954.7%35.2%19.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
AdrianMartinezSEA3.852.4%33.0%18.3%9.0%4.0%1.6%0.6%
JonHeasleyMIN3.851.6%32.2%17.7%8.6%3.8%1.5%0.5%
RyanYarbroughTOR3.751.0%31.7%17.3%8.4%3.6%1.4%0.5%
JackFlahertySD3.648.9%29.7%15.9%7.5%3.2%1.2%0.4%
JoshWinderKC3.342.4%24.1%12.0%5.2%2.0%0.7%0.2%
JohnBrebbiaCOL1.01.9%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
J.T.ChargoisTOR0.91.6%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team SplitAdv? HRPF OppSP HRProb% xHROdds
JocPedersonSFYes109JoseUrena29.2%+245
HunterRenfroeMILNo111HunterGreene26.3%+280
KyleTuckerHOUYes110KyleBradish25.7%+290
AnthonyRizzoNYYYes109MichaelWacha25.5%+290
DavidVillarSFNo108JoseUrena25.5%+295
WillyAdamesMILNo111HunterGreene25.5%+295
PaulGoldschmidtSTLNo96JoeMusgrove24.9%+300
VladimirGuerreroJr.TORYes94RyanYarbrough23.9%+320
AaronJudgeNYYNo103MichaelWacha23.8%+320
JoseRamirezCLEYes111JohnnyCueto23.4%+330
J.D.MartinezBOSNo103JamesonTaillon23.3%+330
MookieBettsLADNo107ZacGallen22.9%+335
BryanReynoldsPITYes95HaydenWesneski22.9%+335
TeoscarHernandezTORYes94RyanYarbrough22.4%+345
EmmanuelRiveraARIYes107JulioUrias22.4%+345
GiancarloStantonNYYNo103MichaelWacha22.3%+350
JeremyPenaHOUNo112KyleBradish22.1%+355
CalRaleighSEAYes92AdrianMartinez21.9%+355
YordanAlvarezHOUYes110KyleBradish21.6%+365
RowdyTellezMILYes113HunterGreene21.4%+365
JakeFraleyCINYes113BrandonWoodruff21.4%+365
AnthonySantanderBALYes110JustinVerlander21.0%+375
LaMonteWadeJrSFYes109JoseUrena20.9%+380
TreaTurnerLADNo107ZacGallen20.8%+380
NolanArenadoSTLNo96JoeMusgrove20.7%+380
SalvadorPerezKCNo92JoshWinder20.6%+385
RhysHoskinsPHIYes110MaxFried20.4%+390
NathanielLoweTEXYes101MichaelLorenzen20.3%+395
JonahHeimTEXYes101MichaelLorenzen20.3%+395
MikeYastrzemskiSFYes109JoseUrena20.3%+395
PatrickWisdomCHCNo92MitchKeller20.1%+395
JoshJungTEXNo95MichaelLorenzen20.1%+400
JoseAltuveHOUNo112KyleBradish19.7%+405
WilliamContrerasATLYes110RangerSuarez19.2%+420
AlexBregmanHOUNo112KyleBradish19.1%+425
BobbyWittJr.KCNo92JoshWinder19.1%+425
AndrewMcCutchenMILNo111HunterGreene19.0%+425
MikeTroutLAAYes95MartinPerez18.9%+430
IsaacParedesTBNo94JoseBerrios18.9%+430
RodolfoCastroPITYes95HaydenWesneski18.8%+430
ChristianWalkerARIYes107JulioUrias18.8%+435
GavinSheetsCHWYes111ShaneBieber18.7%+435
JoeyBartSFNo108JoseUrena18.6%+440
GunnarHendersonBALYes110JustinVerlander18.5%+440
AdolisGarciaTEXNo95MichaelLorenzen18.5%+440
RafaelDeversBOSYes109JamesonTaillon18.4%+445
JulioRodriguezSEANo94AdrianMartinez18.3%+445
OneilCruzPITYes95HaydenWesneski18.3%+445
JackSuwinskiPITYes95HaydenWesneski18.3%+445
AlbertPujolsSTLNo96JoeMusgrove18.1%+455
CoreySeagerTEXYes101MichaelLorenzen18.0%+455
DaultonVarshoARINo102JulioUrias17.8%+460
AustinRileyATLYes110RangerSuarez17.8%+460
SeanMurphyOAKNo94GeorgeKirby17.8%+460
LuisUriasMILNo111HunterGreene17.7%+465
TJFriedlCINYes113BrandonWoodruff17.6%+470
MannyMachadoSDNo96JackFlaherty17.5%+470
JoshDonaldsonNYYNo103MichaelWacha17.3%+480
MattOlsonATLNo106RangerSuarez17.3%+480
SethBrownOAKYes92GeorgeKirby17.3%+480
KyleFarmerCINNo111BrandonWoodruff17.0%+485
AristidesAquinoCINNo111BrandonWoodruff17.0%+485
TyroneTaylorMILNo111HunterGreene17.0%+485
DannyJansenTORYes94RyanYarbrough17.0%+490
ChristianYelichMILYes113HunterGreene16.9%+490
VictorCaratiniMILYes113HunterGreene16.9%+490
WilmerFloresSFNo108JoseUrena16.7%+500
ChasMcCormickHOUNo112KyleBradish16.5%+505
BrandonCrawfordSFYes109JoseUrena16.4%+510
J.T.RealmutoPHIYes110MaxFried16.4%+510
JoeyGalloLADYes102ZacGallen16.2%+515
TyFranceSEANo94AdrianMartinez16.1%+520
RandyArozarenaTBNo94JoseBerrios16.1%+520
ZackCollinsPITYes95HaydenWesneski15.9%+530
MikeTogliaCOLYes109JohnBrebbia15.7%+535
StuartFairchildCINNo111BrandonWoodruff15.6%+540
BryceHarperPHINo106MaxFried15.6%+540
MichaelHarrisIIATLNo106RangerSuarez15.6%+540
FreddieFreemanLADYes102ZacGallen15.6%+545
TommyPhamBOSNo103JamesonTaillon15.4%+550
GleyberTorresNYYNo103MichaelWacha15.4%+550
ChrisTaylorLADNo107ZacGallen15.2%+560
AdleyRutschmanBALYes110JustinVerlander15.1%+560
GeorgeSpringerTORYes94RyanYarbrough15.1%+565
OscarGonzalezCLENo106JohnnyCueto15.1%+565
MarcusSemienTEXNo95MichaelLorenzen15.0%+565
JakeCaveMINYes92JonHeasley14.9%+570
DermisGarciaOAKNo94GeorgeKirby14.9%+570
MaxMuncyLADYes102ZacGallen14.9%+570
JuanSotoSDYes95JackFlaherty14.7%+580
JoseMirandaMINNo92JonHeasley14.6%+585
KetelMarteARIYes107JulioUrias14.6%+585
JoshNaylorCLEYes111JohnnyCueto14.5%+590
AndresGimenezCLEYes111JohnnyCueto14.5%+590
KyleSchwarberPHINo106MaxFried14.4%+595
RyanMountcastleBALNo112JustinVerlander14.3%+600
RonaldAcunaATLYes110RangerSuarez14.1%+610
LarsNootbaarSTLYes95JoeMusgrove14.0%+615
JordanLuplowARIYes107JulioUrias13.8%+625
JustinTurnerLADNo107ZacGallen13.8%+625
MattChapmanTORYes94RyanYarbrough13.7%+625
NickGordonMINYes92JonHeasley13.7%+630
AustinHaysBALNo112JustinVerlander13.6%+640
CharlieBlackmonCOLYes109JohnBrebbia13.5%+640
CodyBellingerLADYes102ZacGallen13.5%+640
JonathanIndiaCINNo111BrandonWoodruff13.5%+645
CarlosCorreaMINNo92JonHeasley13.4%+645
ChristopherMorelCHCNo92MitchKeller13.4%+645
JuricksonProfarSDYes95JackFlaherty13.4%+650
JoshBellSDYes95JackFlaherty13.4%+650
Travisd'ArnaudATLYes110RangerSuarez13.3%+650
DansbySwansonATLYes110RangerSuarez13.3%+650
BrandonDrurySDNo96JackFlaherty13.2%+655
LuisRengifoLAAYes95MartinPerez13.2%+660
ElehurisMonteroCOLNo108JohnBrebbia13.1%+660
BoBichetteTORYes94RyanYarbrough13.1%+665
CarsonKellyARIYes107JulioUrias13.0%+670
AbrahamToroSEAYes92AdrianMartinez13.0%+670
ChristianBethancourtTBNo94JoseBerrios13.0%+670
A.J.PollockCHWNo106ShaneBieber12.9%+675
GioUrshelaMINNo92JonHeasley12.8%+685
P.J.HigginsCHCNo92MitchKeller12.8%+685
OswaldoCabreraNYYYes109MichaelWacha12.7%+685
MichaelBrosseauMILNo111HunterGreene12.7%+690
AlejandroKirkTORYes94RyanYarbrough12.4%+710
WillSmithLADNo107ZacGallen12.3%+715
YoanMoncadaCHWYes111ShaneBieber12.2%+725
RyanMcMahonCOLYes109JohnBrebbia12.0%+735
CarlosSantanaSEAYes92AdrianMartinez11.7%+755
MattWallnerMINYes92JonHeasley11.7%+755
FranmilReyesCHCNo92MitchKeller11.5%+775
TommyEdmanSTLYes95JoeMusgrove11.3%+785
RougnedOdorBALYes110JustinVerlander11.2%+790
JorgeMateoBALNo112JustinVerlander11.2%+795
JesseWinkerSEAYes92AdrianMartinez11.0%+810
MJMelendezKCYes92JoshWinder11.0%+810
JoseSiriTBNo94JoseBerrios11.0%+810
RandalGrichukCOLNo108JohnBrebbia10.8%+820
NelsonVelazquezCHCNo92MitchKeller10.8%+825
DylanCarlsonSTLYes95JoeMusgrove10.6%+840
TreyManciniHOUNo112KyleBradish10.4%+865
RamonUriasBALNo112JustinVerlander10.4%+865
LuisArraezMINYes92JonHeasley10.3%+870
VinniePasquantinoKCYes92JoshWinder10.3%+870
DaltonGuthriePHIYes110MaxFried10.0%+905
TrentGrishamSDYes95JackFlaherty9.9%+910
ZachMcKinstryCHCYes95MitchKeller9.9%+910
KoleCalhounTEXYes101MichaelLorenzen9.7%+935
StevenKwanCLEYes111JohnnyCueto9.7%+935
ChristianArroyoBOSNo103JamesonTaillon9.6%+940
JakeMcCarthyARINo102JulioUrias9.6%+940
DavidPeraltaTBYes92JoseBerrios9.6%+940
SamHaggertySEAYes92AdrianMartinez9.6%+940
TristonCasasBOSYes109JamesonTaillon9.5%+955
AlanTrejoCOLNo108JohnBrebbia9.2%+985
JakeCronenworthSDYes95JackFlaherty9.1%+995
ElvisAndrusCHWNo106ShaneBieber9.1%+1000
JoseAbreuCHWNo106ShaneBieber9.1%+1000
EloyJimenezCHWNo106ShaneBieber9.1%+1000
AndrewVaughnCHWNo106ShaneBieber9.1%+1000
YandyDiazTBNo94JoseBerrios8.9%+1025
ConnorWongBOSNo103JamesonTaillon8.8%+1030
StoneGarrettARIYes107JulioUrias8.8%+1030
IanHappCHCYes95MitchKeller8.4%+1090
YadierMolinaSTLNo96JoeMusgrove8.3%+1105
Ha-SeongKimSDNo96JackFlaherty8.3%+1105
AlecBohmPHIYes110MaxFried8.1%+1130
HaroldRamirezTBNo94JoseBerrios8.1%+1130
YuChangBOSNo103JamesonTaillon8.0%+1145
EdwardOlivaresKCNo92JoshWinder8.0%+1155
YasmaniGrandalCHWYes111ShaneBieber7.9%+1165
ChristianVazquezHOUNo112KyleBradish7.8%+1185