Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | ImpliedTotal | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
| SD | AnibalSanchez | 8.0 | 5.15 | 41.0% | 26.0% | 15.0% | 7.8% | 3.8% |
| BAL | AdrianSampson | 9.0 | 4.92 | 37.0% | 22.6% | 12.5% | 6.3% | 2.9% |
| STL | AntonioSenzatela | 8.0 | 4.74 | 33.9% | 20.1% | 10.8% | 5.2% | 2.3% |
| BOS | JTBrubaker | 8.5 | 4.57 | 30.9% | 17.8% | 9.2% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| NYY | JoseBerrios | 8.5 | 4.57 | 30.9% | 17.8% | 9.2% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| TEX | ZachLogue | 8.0 | 4.52 | 30.0% | 17.2% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 1.8% |
| HOU | LucasGiolito | 8.5 | 4.45 | 28.9% | 16.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| TB | BradKeller | 7.5 | 4.25 | 25.5% | 13.8% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| CHC | SpenserWatkins | 9.0 | 4.08 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| CHW | LuisGarcia | 8.5 | 4.05 | 22.3% | 11.6% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| PIT | JoshWinckowski | 8.5 | 3.93 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| TOR | FrankieMontas | 8.5 | 3.93 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| LAD | CorbinBurnes | 7.5 | 3.78 | 18.1% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| SF | ZacGallen | 7.0 | 3.76 | 17.9% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| MIL | AndrewHeaney | 7.5 | 3.72 | 17.3% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| NYM | MaxFried | 7.0 | 3.63 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| OAK | DaneDunning | 8.0 | 3.48 | 14.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| ATL | JacobdeGrom | 7.0 | 3.37 | 12.6% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| COL | AdamWainwright | 8.0 | 3.26 | 11.2% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| KC | LuisPatino | 7.5 | 3.25 | 11.1% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| ARI | LoganWebb | 7.0 | 3.24 | 11.0% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| WSH | YuDarvish | 8.0 | 2.85 | 7.0% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | KProj | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
| CorbinBurnes | LAD | 7.4 | 93.8% | 86.3% | 75.1% | 61.2% | 46.5% | 32.8% | 21.6% |
| YuDarvish | WSH | 7.0 | 92.0% | 83.1% | 70.4% | 55.6% | 40.7% | 27.6% | 17.4% |
| AndrewHeaney | MIL | 6.5 | 88.5% | 77.2% | 62.5% | 46.7% | 32.1% | 20.4% | 11.9% |
| JacobdeGrom | ATL | 6.3 | 87.0% | 74.7% | 59.4% | 43.4% | 29.1% | 18.0% | 10.2% |
| LucasGiolito | HOU | 6.2 | 86.7% | 74.2% | 58.7% | 42.7% | 28.5% | 17.5% | 9.9% |
| LuisGarcia | CHW | 6.2 | 86.7% | 74.2% | 58.7% | 42.7% | 28.5% | 17.5% | 9.9% |
| LoganWebb | ARI | 5.8 | 82.6% | 68.2% | 51.5% | 35.5% | 22.4% | 12.9% | 6.8% |
| AdamWainwright | COL | 5.7 | 82.4% | 67.9% | 51.2% | 35.2% | 22.1% | 12.7% | 6.7% |
| JTBrubaker | BOS | 5.5 | 79.9% | 64.4% | 47.3% | 31.6% | 19.2% | 10.6% | 5.4% |
| MaxFried | NYM | 5.5 | 79.8% | 64.2% | 47.1% | 31.4% | 19.1% | 10.6% | 5.4% |
| FrankieMontas | TOR | 5.2 | 75.7% | 58.7% | 41.2% | 26.2% | 15.1% | 7.9% | 3.8% |
| ZacGallen | SF | 4.9 | 72.1% | 54.2% | 36.6% | 22.3% | 12.3% | 6.2% | 2.8% |
| DaneDunning | OAK | 4.7 | 68.6% | 50.0% | 32.6% | 19.1% | 10.1% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| JoseBerrios | NYY | 4.6 | 68.1% | 49.4% | 32.1% | 18.7% | 9.9% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| BradKeller | TB | 4.5 | 65.8% | 46.8% | 29.7% | 16.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| AnibalSanchez | SD | 3.9 | 55.5% | 35.9% | 20.6% | 10.5% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| AdrianSampson | BAL | 3.8 | 52.4% | 33.0% | 18.3% | 9.0% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| LuisPatino | KC | 3.8 | 51.6% | 32.2% | 17.7% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| AntonioSenzatela | STL | 3.7 | 51.0% | 31.7% | 17.3% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| ZachLogue | TEX | 3.7 | 49.7% | 30.5% | 16.4% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| SpenserWatkins | CHC | 3.5 | 46.6% | 27.6% | 14.4% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| JoshWinckowski | PIT | 3.5 | 45.9% | 27.1% | 14.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.
| Batter | Team | SplitAdv? | HRPF | OppSP | HRProb% | xHROdds |
| AaronJudge | NYY | No | 103 | JoseBerrios | 29.6% | +240 |
| YordanAlvarez | HOU | Yes | 111 | LucasGiolito | 25.4% | +295 |
| RafaelDevers | BOS | Yes | 95 | JTBrubaker | 23.8% | +320 |
| BrandonDrury | SD | No | 96 | AnibalSanchez | 22.7% | +340 |
| VladimirGuerreroJr. | TOR | No | 103 | FrankieMontas | 21.8% | +360 |
| AdolisGarcia | TEX | Yes | 95 | ZachLogue | 21.6% | +365 |
| PatrickWisdom | CHC | No | 112 | SpenserWatkins | 21.5% | +365 |
| TeoscarHernandez | TOR | No | 103 | FrankieMontas | 21.3% | +370 |
| SeiyaSuzuki | CHC | No | 112 | SpenserWatkins | 20.9% | +380 |
| FreddieFreeman | LAD | Yes | 101 | CorbinBurnes | 20.8% | +380 |
| JonahHeim | TEX | Yes | 95 | ZachLogue | 20.6% | +385 |
| JuanSoto | SD | Yes | 95 | AnibalSanchez | 20.4% | +390 |
| WillsonContreras | CHC | No | 112 | SpenserWatkins | 20.3% | +390 |
| MookieBetts | LAD | No | 103 | CorbinBurnes | 20.2% | +395 |
| JocPederson | SF | Yes | 87 | ZacGallen | 20.1% | +395 |
| NolanArenado | STL | No | 91 | AntonioSenzatela | 19.9% | +400 |
| PaulGoldschmidt | STL | No | 91 | AntonioSenzatela | 19.5% | +415 |
| FranmilReyes | CHC | No | 112 | SpenserWatkins | 19.1% | +425 |
| JoseAltuve | HOU | No | 106 | LucasGiolito | 18.9% | +430 |
| JeremyPena | HOU | No | 106 | LucasGiolito | 18.9% | +430 |
| MJMelendez | KC | Yes | 92 | LuisPatino | 18.9% | +430 |
| WilliamContreras | ATL | No | 97 | JacobdeGrom | 18.8% | +430 |
| CoreySeager | TEX | No | 101 | ZachLogue | 18.7% | +435 |
| FranciscoLindor | NYM | Yes | 97 | MaxFried | 18.6% | +440 |
| AnthonySantander | BAL | Yes | 110 | AdrianSampson | 18.5% | +440 |
| ChristopherMorel | CHC | No | 112 | SpenserWatkins | 18.5% | +440 |
| BryanReynolds | PIT | Yes | 95 | JoshWinckowski | 18.3% | +445 |
| AustinRiley | ATL | No | 97 | JacobdeGrom | 18.2% | +450 |
| MannyMachado | SD | No | 96 | AnibalSanchez | 18.1% | +455 |
| TommyPham | BOS | No | 92 | JTBrubaker | 18.0% | +455 |
| GleyberTorres | NYY | No | 103 | JoseBerrios | 17.9% | +460 |
| RougnedOdor | BAL | Yes | 110 | AdrianSampson | 17.9% | +460 |
| BrandonLowe | TB | Yes | 92 | BradKeller | 17.8% | +460 |
| AnthonyRizzo | NYY | Yes | 109 | JoseBerrios | 17.8% | +465 |
| AndrewVaughn | CHW | No | 106 | LuisGarcia | 17.7% | +465 |
| PeteAlonso | NYM | Yes | 97 | MaxFried | 17.4% | +475 |
| C.J.Cron | COL | No | 91 | AdamWainwright | 17.4% | +475 |
| GeorgeSpringer | TOR | No | 103 | FrankieMontas | 17.3% | +480 |
| SalvadorPerez | KC | No | 94 | LuisPatino | 17.2% | +480 |
| IsaacParedes | TB | No | 94 | BradKeller | 17.2% | +480 |
| RamonUrias | BAL | No | 112 | AdrianSampson | 17.1% | +485 |
| JoeyGallo | LAD | Yes | 101 | CorbinBurnes | 16.7% | +500 |
| TreaTurner | LAD | No | 103 | CorbinBurnes | 16.7% | +500 |
| WilmerFlores | SF | No | 90 | ZacGallen | 16.7% | +500 |
| RandalGrichuk | COL | No | 91 | AdamWainwright | 16.2% | +515 |
| HunterRenfroe | MIL | Yes | 103 | AndrewHeaney | 16.2% | +515 |
| JoshDonaldson | NYY | No | 103 | JoseBerrios | 16.0% | +525 |
| MartinMaldonado | HOU | No | 106 | LucasGiolito | 15.7% | +535 |
| PaulDeJong | STL | No | 91 | AntonioSenzatela | 15.7% | +540 |
| CharlieBlackmon | COL | Yes | 97 | AdamWainwright | 15.6% | +540 |
| VinniePasquantino | KC | Yes | 92 | LuisPatino | 15.5% | +545 |
| BoBichette | TOR | No | 103 | FrankieMontas | 15.4% | +550 |
| JoshBell | SD | Yes | 95 | AnibalSanchez | 15.3% | +555 |
| RyanMcMahon | COL | Yes | 97 | AdamWainwright | 14.9% | +570 |
| MaxMuncy | LAD | Yes | 101 | CorbinBurnes | 14.8% | +575 |
| SethBrown | OAK | Yes | 101 | DaneDunning | 14.8% | +575 |
| TrentGrisham | SD | Yes | 95 | AnibalSanchez | 14.7% | +580 |
| JoeyMeneses | WSH | No | 96 | YuDarvish | 14.5% | +590 |
| AlexBregman | HOU | No | 106 | LucasGiolito | 14.4% | +595 |
| EloyJimenez | CHW | No | 106 | LuisGarcia | 14.4% | +595 |
| ChristianWalker | ARI | No | 90 | LoganWebb | 14.4% | +595 |
| AustinHays | BAL | No | 112 | AdrianSampson | 14.3% | +600 |
| JorgeMateo | BAL | No | 112 | AdrianSampson | 14.3% | +600 |
| RyanMountcastle | BAL | No | 112 | AdrianSampson | 14.3% | +600 |
| Ji-ManChoi | TB | Yes | 92 | BradKeller | 14.3% | +600 |
| NolanGorman | STL | Yes | 97 | AntonioSenzatela | 14.3% | +600 |
| RandyArozarena | TB | No | 94 | BradKeller | 14.3% | +600 |
| LaMonteWadeJr | SF | Yes | 87 | ZacGallen | 14.2% | +600 |
| KestonHiura | MIL | Yes | 103 | AndrewHeaney | 14.1% | +610 |
| NathanielLowe | TEX | No | 101 | ZachLogue | 13.9% | +620 |
| DanVogelbach | NYM | No | 100 | MaxFried | 13.8% | +625 |
| YoanMoncada | CHW | Yes | 111 | LuisGarcia | 13.7% | +630 |
| KyleTucker | HOU | Yes | 111 | LucasGiolito | 13.7% | +630 |
| IanHapp | CHC | Yes | 110 | SpenserWatkins | 13.6% | +635 |
| ZachMcKinstry | CHC | Yes | 110 | SpenserWatkins | 13.6% | +635 |
| OneilCruz | PIT | Yes | 95 | JoshWinckowski | 13.4% | +650 |
| MattChapman | TOR | No | 103 | FrankieMontas | 13.3% | +650 |
| DannyJansen | TOR | No | 103 | FrankieMontas | 13.3% | +650 |
| EvanLongoria | SF | No | 90 | ZacGallen | 13.1% | +660 |
| BrandonBelt | SF | Yes | 87 | ZacGallen | 13.0% | +665 |
| CedricMullins | BAL | Yes | 110 | AdrianSampson | 12.8% | +680 |
| LuisUrias | MIL | Yes | 103 | AndrewHeaney | 12.6% | +695 |
| MattOlson | ATL | Yes | 100 | JacobdeGrom | 12.6% | +695 |
| SeanMurphy | OAK | No | 95 | DaneDunning | 12.5% | +705 |
| BobbyWittJr. | KC | No | 94 | LuisPatino | 12.3% | +710 |
| A.J.Pollock | CHW | No | 106 | LuisGarcia | 12.2% | +720 |
| TreyMancini | HOU | No | 106 | LucasGiolito | 12.2% | +720 |
| JuricksonProfar | SD | Yes | 95 | AnibalSanchez | 12.0% | +730 |
| ChrisTaylor | LAD | No | 103 | CorbinBurnes | 11.9% | +740 |
| WillSmith | LAD | No | 103 | CorbinBurnes | 11.9% | +740 |
| NelsonCruz | WSH | No | 96 | YuDarvish | 11.9% | +740 |
| ThairoEstrada | SF | No | 90 | ZacGallen | 11.9% | +740 |
| MichaelHarrisII | ATL | Yes | 100 | JacobdeGrom | 11.8% | +745 |
| WillyAdames | MIL | Yes | 103 | AndrewHeaney | 11.8% | +745 |
| TyroneTaylor | MIL | Yes | 103 | AndrewHeaney | 11.8% | +745 |
| KetelMarte | ARI | Yes | 87 | LoganWebb | 11.8% | +750 |
| MarcusSemien | TEX | Yes | 95 | ZachLogue | 11.8% | +750 |
| J.D.Martinez | BOS | No | 92 | JTBrubaker | 11.5% | +775 |
| JoseAbreu | CHW | No | 106 | LuisGarcia | 11.4% | +775 |
| DansbySwanson | ATL | No | 97 | JacobdeGrom | 11.3% | +785 |
| AdleyRutschman | BAL | Yes | 110 | AdrianSampson | 11.2% | +790 |
| JoseTrevino | NYY | No | 103 | JoseBerrios | 11.2% | +795 |
| MikeYastrzemski | SF | Yes | 87 | ZacGallen | 11.1% | +800 |
| AndrewMcCutchen | MIL | Yes | 103 | AndrewHeaney | 11.0% | +805 |
| BrianServen | COL | No | 91 | AdamWainwright | 10.7% | +835 |
| LuisRobert | CHW | No | 106 | LuisGarcia | 10.7% | +835 |
| JoeyBart | SF | No | 90 | ZacGallen | 10.6% | +845 |
| LukeVoit | WSH | No | 96 | YuDarvish | 10.5% | +855 |
| EddieRosario | ATL | Yes | 100 | JacobdeGrom | 10.3% | +865 |
| MichaelBrosseau | MIL | Yes | 103 | AndrewHeaney | 10.2% | +880 |
| BrendanRodgers | COL | No | 91 | AdamWainwright | 10.0% | +900 |
| CesarHernandez | WSH | Yes | 95 | YuDarvish | 9.9% | +910 |
| BenGamel | PIT | Yes | 95 | JoshWinckowski | 9.9% | +910 |
| DaultonVarsho | ARI | Yes | 87 | LoganWebb | 9.8% | +920 |
| DJLeMahieu | NYY | No | 103 | JoseBerrios | 9.6% | +940 |
| NickPratto | KC | Yes | 92 | LuisPatino | 9.6% | +940 |
| EzequielDuran | TEX | Yes | 95 | ZachLogue | 9.5% | +950 |
| LarsNootbaar | STL | Yes | 97 | AntonioSenzatela | 9.3% | +975 |
| EmmanuelRivera | ARI | No | 90 | LoganWebb | 9.2% | +985 |
| EricHosmer | BOS | Yes | 95 | JTBrubaker | 9.1% | +995 |
| AlexVerdugo | BOS | Yes | 95 | JTBrubaker | 9.1% | +995 |
| JoshHarrison | CHW | No | 106 | LuisGarcia | 9.1% | +1000 |
| MarkCanha | NYM | Yes | 97 | MaxFried | 8.9% | +1025 |
| JustinTurner | LAD | No | 103 | CorbinBurnes | 8.8% | +1030 |
| EnriqueHernandez | BOS | No | 92 | JTBrubaker | 8.7% | +1050 |
| BrendanDonovan | STL | Yes | 97 | AntonioSenzatela | 8.6% | +1070 |
| VictorCaratini | MIL | Yes | 103 | AndrewHeaney | 8.5% | +1070 |
| AlekThomas | ARI | Yes | 87 | LoganWebb | 8.4% | +1085 |
| Travisd'Arnaud | ATL | No | 97 | JacobdeGrom | 8.4% | +1095 |
| YandyDiaz | TB | No | 94 | BradKeller | 8.1% | +1130 |
| StarlingMarte | NYM | Yes | 97 | MaxFried | 8.1% | +1135 |
| JoseIglesias | COL | No | 91 | AdamWainwright | 7.9% | +1165 |
| IldemaroVargas | WSH | Yes | 95 | YuDarvish | 7.6% | +1210 |
| JakeCronenworth | SD | Yes | 95 | AnibalSanchez | 7.6% | +1210 |
| RonaldAcuna | ATL | No | 97 | JacobdeGrom | 7.6% | +1215 |
| HaroldRamirez | TB | No | 94 | BradKeller | 7.4% | +1255 |
| SantiagoEspinal | TOR | No | 103 | FrankieMontas | 7.2% | +1285 |
| CharlieCulberson | TEX | Yes | 95 | ZachLogue | 7.1% | +1305 |
| GeraldoPerdomo | ARI | Yes | 87 | LoganWebb | 7.0% | +1325 |
| AndrewBenintendi | NYY | Yes | 109 | JoseBerrios | 6.9% | +1355 |
| RaimelTapia | TOR | Yes | 109 | FrankieMontas | 6.9% | +1355 |
| TucupitaMarcano | PIT | Yes | 95 | JoshWinckowski | 6.8% | +1365 |
| RodolfoCastro | PIT | Yes | 95 | JoshWinckowski | 6.8% | +1365 |
| VaughnGrissom | ATL | No | 97 | JacobdeGrom | 6.8% | +1365 |
| SheldonNeuse | OAK | No | 95 | DaneDunning | 6.7% | +1395 |